Syria is not hopeless
Bashar al Assad continues to defy international pressure by cracking down violently on peaceful protesters in Syria. The internationals are running out of ideas about what to do: Arab League suspension, contact group, tightening sanctions against economic mainstays of the regime, helping the Syrian National Council (SNC) unify and project a program, renewed pursuit of a UN Security Council resolution and ambiguity about whether military force will be used are on Robert Danin’s list, which isn’t much different from Andrew Tabler’s.
What Danin and Tabler are trying to do is accelerate Bashar al Assad’s departure. I wish them luck in that, and I hope we do all they recommend. But I think we need also to prepare for a long siege. Bashar is trying to outlast the protesters, and he might well succeed unless they, and we, get smarter.
They need to get clever about new ways of defying the regime and demonstrating widespread support. The streets are dangerous these days, and the use of violence by some of the demonstrators is going to make it worse. Some stay at home, general strike or boycott-type demonstrations are in order. As Chenoweth and Stephan point out, it is much harder for the regime to respond to these. And much less risky for the demonstrators if they do nothing but fail to appear for work. More coordinated evening banging on pots and pans is another possibility. Do it twice and everyone will understand its significance.
The internationals also need to prepare for the long haul. This means using the time available to get the SNC up to snuff, with a serious plan and program for the future. Yeh, I know there are proposals for this working their way through the State Department, but too slowly for my taste. It also means talking with the Russians about their naval base at Latakia. They are sure to lose it if they don’t switch sides before Bashar falls. The trick is to convince them that his fall is inevitable and they may as well help make it happen, in hope of ensuring their basing rights for the future.
We also need to press for international human rights monitors. They appear to have been part of the Arab League deal (a written copy of which I still haven’t seen). At some point, the regime may give in to these, because it will want confirmation that it has defeated the protests. If Bashar continues to refuse them, he only embarrasses himself.
Syria is not hopeless. But it may take a long time.
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And the purpose of international observers is to do exactly what? Speak truth to power, provide evidence to the world and shame Assad into behaving better? It didn’t work very well or for very long in Kosovo, and Assad is a lot tougher nut than Milosevic.
The defectors from the Syrian army (rebels?) are beginning to make an impression – when you really get down to it, it’s force that decides. The threatened or implied use of force – warnings, massive public demonstrations, etc. – only goes so far. Since Assad has supporters who have a lot to lose if Assad goes, this could get ugly, at least from Assad’s POV. (See the end-game in Libya.) And no, I don’t have anything constructive to offer.
The U.S. seems mainly interested these days in getting out of Europe and the Mid-East, so our leading any Nato-charge against Syria appears unlikely. Maybe the Israelis would see it as being in their national interests to provide some quiet help, but the Arab Spring doesn’t seem to be working out particularly well for them so far … The Saudis? Are they up to doing anything? With all those aircraft we keep selling them, they ought to have most of the Mid-East under control.