Day: November 17, 2011
The game is changing, but to what?
More than a little difficult to sum up today’s Middle East Institute “game changer” conference in a few words, but here’s a try:
1. Enthusiasm for Arab spring, with lots of uncertainty about both transition and how it will come out in the end. It is still the first five minutes. Economic problems loom.
2. Tunisia could be a hopeful bellwether: good electoral process, moderate Islamist victory, clear roadmap.
3. Libya shaky, with militias the big immediate problem but the constitutional framework provides a clear roadmap ahead, if they can stick with it.
4. But Egypt is the big prize. Things there are not going well: security shaky, military holding on, electoral process too complicated, liberals fragmented, Muslim Brotherhood strong, economy weak.
5. Revolution likely to succeed sooner or later in Syria, but possible high cost (civil war) and high payoff (depriving Iran of an important ally). Arab League moves do make a difference.
6. Also like to succeed in Bahrain and Yemen, but cost may also be high there.
7. Little hope to revive the Israel/Palestine peace process before the U.S. presidential elections, though Dan Kurtzer argued strongly for a bold U.S. initiative to define parameters.
8. Iran is gaining in Iraq and Afghanistan, but losing in Syria and the Arab world generally, as Turkey and smaller Arab monarchies gain but Saudis do not.
9. Israel, facing many uncertainties, hopes for preservation of the status quo but navigates when need be.
10. Lots of change, but overall outcome not yet clear.
These are obviously only my impressionistic highlights. I’ll be glad if others chime in.
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Happy anniversary!
Today marks the first anniversary of www.peacefare.net, more or less. Listen carefully to NPR, where a day sponsorship will mark the occasion! Here are the stats, as of this morning:
- Posts: this is number 562, not counting those I put up as “pages”
- Visits: Googleanalytics says 31,304
- Page views: 59,931
- Unique visitors: 16,790
- Countries of origin: 149
- Visitors from the U.S.: 56%, hence 44% non-U.S. (most from Serbia, Kosovo, Italy, Bosnia, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Sweden, Poland)
- New visits: 53%
- Pages per visit: about 2
- Minutes on site: about 2
I put all this in the so far, so good category. I might wish for more, but even if the numbers were double I’d likely still wish for more. And that high percentage of new visitors means peacefare is still growing, as do the 1200 or so Twitter followers, with 2-5 added most days.
The one clear area needing improvement is getting other people to write for the peacefare.net I’ve had a few fabulous friends, students and colleagues contribute wonderful pieces, but not as many as I would like. Peacefare is too much a solo act, something I regret. Please help me fix that!
I would also hope for more comments. My Balkans readers have engaged in rough and tumble debate, rarely moderated by my intervention. The Middle East hasn’t yet elicited the same feistiness. I wish it would.
Please accept my sincere thanks for your readership, which is really the only reason I do this almost every day. I could just as well tuck these thoughts away, as I did during more than four decades of diplomatic career at the UN, State Department and U.S. Institute of Peace. It is much more fun to get them out to you, so I sincerely hope you’ll keep reading, commenting and contributing when the spirit moves you.
On to year 2!
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