All the action is not in the streets
The streets are dangerous in both Egypt and Syria.
In Egypt, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has named a new civilian prime minister and intends to proceed with the first round of parliamentary elections next Tuesday. While there is talk of boycotting among secularists, the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists intend to participate. As the violence of the last week ebbs, Tahrir square has been filling, but odds are that SCAF will have its way and elections will proceed. It is starting to look as if the secularists will be the big losers. Might they have done better to devote more time and energy to organizing their voters and less to occupying Tahrir?
The Arab League has issued an ultimatum to Damascus demanding admission of international observers. Failure to do so will supposedly lead to vigorous travel, trade, investment and other sanctions. The Bashar al Assad regime seems determined to continue its crackdown, which is still killing dozens of demonstrators every day, principally in Homs yesterday. The Arab League, not known for taking decisive action, needs to be ready to make good on its bluff.
Military action in Syria, despite French blague, still seems to me not just far off but nigh on impossible. Moscow is still blocking action in the UN Security Council, the Arab League is not asking for it, the Americans don’t want to think about it, and the Europeans are not going to do it on their own. The best bet for the Syrians is still nonviolent protest, though it may be better to focus on boycotts, general strikes and work stoppages rather than putting large numbers of people in the now very dangerous streets.
Revolution is an emotional business. Often the headiest experiences are in mass rallies. But there are other ways to protest, and the ballot box should not be ignored. All the action is not in the streets.
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The Brotherhood reportedly did not go out into the streets, and some commentators say this has cost them respect among the people for not coming out with them to stand up to the military council. This may help the liberals in the longer run, always supposing there will be future elections. Perhaps it would have been better to hold the elections later, but it’s a bad idea to make going to the street the standard way of dealing with the government. On the other hand, they ended up with only a half-revolution in Serbia because every one went home and ignored the behavior of the power ministries and the special forces’ “strike” after their Bulldozer Revolution.
At least in Tahrir Square they were getting bloodied over something important, unlike those shoppers who battled over cheap cell phones and towels. Luckily we still have Blue Laws here in Massachusetts, so the stores remained decently closed. You don’t have to be religious to see the sense of not spending every day of the year buying and/or selling. If the big chains show signs of becoming a public nuisance, perhaps increasing the required security presence to a level that would cut into their profit would help them reassess the importance of a few more selling hours.
The number of protesters killed in Syria is being reported as approximately 3500. For the entire time of The Troubles in Ireland, from 1969 up to 2010, the Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/jun/10/deaths-in-northern-ireland-conflict-data)shows a total number of deaths of 3568 – with 1,879 of those being civilians, 1,117 British troops, and the vast majority of the rest being paramilitaries. Just in case anybody’s wondering just how bad the situation on the streets is, comparatively speaking.