peacefare.net

The third law of holes

The first, well known, is that when you are in a hole, stop digging.  The second, less known, is to fill it in to keep it from becoming a hazard.

The third:  a hole not filled in will cause more damage in the future than it would cause if you took care of it now.

Europe needs to keep the third law in mind as December approaches.  That is when the European Union, already facing an existential challenge from the euro crisis, is to decide on Serbia’s candidacy for membership.  The EU can choose to ignore what is going on in northern Kosovo, where local Serbs are insisting on remaining part of Serbia, and go ahead with candidacy.  Or it can insist on a clear and enforceable commitment by Belgrade to accept integration of the north with the rest of Kosovo, in accordance with the Ahtisaari plan.  If it fails to do the latter, it will be violating the third law of holes.

Europe does not need another candidate for membership in this difficult moment.  Serbia has done well in meeting many EU requirements since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic, but Serbia’s small population and its aging demographic make it a marginal addition to the Union, at best.  At worst, it could become a financial burden on the other 27 or 28 members (Croatia is already slated to become the 28th). While certainly not a candidate for the euro zone, Serbia’s economic performance is not going to contribute much to European vitality:  the latest IMF projection is 2% growth in 2011 with 11.3% increase in consumer prices.  Next year the IMF is projecting 3% growth and 4.3% increase in prices, which sounds unlikely in both dimensions.

The counter-argument is this:  getting Serbia irreversibly on track for EU membership will ensure that problems like Kosovo and Belgrade’s relationship with independence-minded Republika Srpska (the Serb-controlled 49 per cent of Bosnia and Herzegovina) fade rather than grow. These issues will evaporate as Serbia gets closer to EU membership.  Besides, Serbia has parliamentary elections next year.  It would be better if Boris Tadić’s pro-Europe Democratic Party were to win once again.  Giving Serbia EU candidacy will help.

I repeat these arguments for the sake of completeness.  I don’t know of any evidence that they are true.  Tadić has had more than ample opportunity to choose Europe over Kosovo, something he has steadfastly refused to do.  Maybe someone with less tarnished nationalist credentials would be able to accept what everyone knows:  Kosovo is lost.  But this unsubstantiated pro-Tadić reasoning  provides ample justification for kicking the can down the road, which is where most of the 27 EU members would like to see it.  They don’t have any stomach for worrying about additional bits of Balkan real estate when their common currency is on the verge of going down the drain.

I am hoping that there is at least one EU member that will see the situation differently and invoke the third law of holes.  This is one of those odd situations–like the Dutch insistence on turning Ratko Mladić over to the Hague Tribunal–when a single EU member can have a profound impact by standing on principle.  That’s what the third law of holes requires.

I know you are wondering:  no, there is no fourth law of holes.  That’s it!

PS:  I’ve corrected in the above text a mistake in the original that said presidential elections will occur next year.  In fact, parliamentary elections will occur next year (the rumored date is May 5–certainly there is no reason to rush candidacy for that deadline) and presidential elections will occur in 2013.