Month: November 2011
Libya good, Egypt bad, Syria worse
Libyan militia fighters today captured and brought to their Zintan base Saif al Islam, Muammar Qaddafi’s one-time heir apparent. He was trying to escape to Niger. The interim Prime Minister Abdurrahim al-Keib is talking fair trial and trying to prevent Saif from suffering his father’s fate at the hands of his captors. Keeping Saif safe is vital if Libya is to stay on course towards a democratic regime with ample international support.
Libyans will want to try him in Libya, where justice would be a relative thing and result in the capital punishment the country wants and expects. The International Criminal Court (ICC) will try to convince the Libyans to turn Saif over. My own view is that they would be wise to do so, in order to liberate their government from a burden that will be difficult and distracting to discharge. But the decision should be a Libyan one, after they have heard from the ICC.
In Egypt secularists and Islamists took to the streets yesterday in parallel demonstrations that have ended today in a police riot against those who remained at a sit-in in Tahrir square asking for a quick turnover of power to civilians. In a well-timed piece published before today’s events, Marina Ottaway noted the revival of the Mubarak military/secular regime, without Mubarak. Today’s events confirm her view and raise serious doubts about whether Egypt will ever see a truly democratic regime.
While Barbara Slavin is hopeful that the Arab League moves against Syria signal the beginning of the end for Assad regime, arrests and killings continue. The regime seems unperturbed and continues to enjoy Russian and Iranian support. It is stalling on international monitors.
Even without implementation the Arab League agreement seems to be having a salutary effect, if not on Syria at least on investors. As Michelle Dunne noted at the Middle East Institute conference Thursday, the Arab League’s new-found activism is a clear vote of no confidence in Bashar’s capacity to continue in office. That won’t get him to step down, but it will certainly make those thinking about investments in Syria think twice. Turkey has reportedly cancelled plans to explore for oil.
I still think there is a long way to go, however. The protesters need a sustainable strategy. And we (U.S., Arab League, Europeans and just about everybody else, even the Iranians) need to avoid the kind of sectarian strife that almost tore Iraq apart in 2005/6. It would be far better for these purposes if the protesters stay nonviolent. We need to convince Turkey in particular to restrain the Free Syrian Army defectors, whose modest tactical successes in recent days will be forgotten quickly as the real Syrian army does its deadly handiwork.
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The first law of holes
Belgrade daily Pravda asked for my views on Kosovo and Serbia’s EU candidacy. Here is how I responded:
Belgrade has dug a hole for itself. It has told the world it will not recognize Kosovo as sovereign and independent. It has exhausted its diplomatic credits trying to block recognition by other countries. It has bought a Russian veto in the UN Security Council. It has held on using its security forces to the northern corner of its former province. It spends hundreds of millions of euros each year to keep its institutions functioning there.
It can expect none of this effort and expenditure to produce worthwhile results. Whatever Kosovo’s status, it is clear that the democratically validated institutions in Pristina are the legitimate government of the whole territory of Kosovo, which is treated as undivided territory in UN Security Council resolution 1244, to which Belgrade has sworn fealty.
The European Union and the United States have made it clear that Kosovo will not be divided and that Belgrade needs to conform its efforts to the Ahtisaari plan, which offers a wide degree of self-governance to the north and other Serb-majority areas of Kosovo. Pristina will no doubt be prepared to talk with Belgrade about how the Ahtisaari plan is implemented, but not about “Ahtisaari plus” or other efforts to reopen what has already been agreed by the Kosovo authorities.
I imagine that the European Council will want in December to approve Serbia’s candidacy for membership in the Union, as recommended by the Commission. While there is some possibility one or more EU members will still block Serbia’s candidacy because of Belgrade’s failure to cooperate with UNMIK and NATO efforts to resolve border/boundary issues, I would much prefer to see those issues settled and Serbia’s candidacy ensured. If Serbia fails to get candidacy in December, it may have to wait a long time for another opportunity. I doubt it will get a date to start the negotiations—it does not even appear to want one.
In any event, I am certain that the Union will not accept Belgrade as a member until it settles all its outstanding issues with Pristina. Little progress on these can be made before the Serbian elections, but I hope to see a government after the elections that can move expeditiously in a new direction.
The first law of holes is stop digging. Belgrade would benefit from ending its diplomatic efforts against Kosovo’s recognition and sitting down with Pristina to develop a cooperative approach to implementing the Ahtisaari plan in north Kosovo. It may be too much to ask Belgrade to recognize Kosovo’s sovereignty, but it is not too much to ask Belgrade to accept the legitimacy and authority of the Pristina institutions. It can best do this by unblocking the Security Council and allowing Kosovo to enter the General Assembly.
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The places we’d like to forget
Busy morning: conversations with people who know the situations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia and Kosovo really well. What’s the common denominator? Ethnic strife, which makes everything so much harder. Each of my interlocutors (that’s people you talk with in diplomatese) has his/her own agenda and views. Here are my conclusions:
1. Iraq:
Not going badly. Much more Sunni ethnic nationalism than in the past, with Sunnis and Kurds getting on better as the Sunnis start thinking about wanting one or more regions of their own. Maaliki managing to maintain the fragmentation and shifting alliances that keep him in power, even as he continues to gain greater control over the army. Arrests of Ba’athists and Exxon contract with the Kurds are not causing giant problems: Iraqiyya is staying in the government and the Exxon move brings pressure on Baghdad to pass the oil law. Both sides reasonably content with the American withdrawal, looking forward to stronger implementation of the Strategic Framework Agreement that will now govern the bilateral relationship. Not clear however whether they see implementation of that agreement in the same way.
2. Afghanistan:
Not going well. Governance is the main issue. This is well-recognized among the Americans, who regard the 2014 presidential succession, strengthening of independent institutions, and improvement of national and provincial planning and budgeting as the governance priorities. But there is not a lot of sign of progress, despite substantial effort. Governance is difficult. President Karzai’s way of governing is not one we can ever much like, as it involves behaviors that we regard as corrupt, but creating an alternative requires a degree of commitment and sophistication that the now declining American presence is not likely to display.
3. Bosnia:
No prospect of forming a “state” government (that’s what they call the central government), ten months after elections. Meanwhile the Federation half (51%) of Bosnia, led by engineer turned Social Democrat Zlatko Lagumdžija, is competing with Republika Srpska (49%), led by social democrat turned ethnic nationalist Milorad Dodik, for both improved governance and political clout. RS is thought to be running out of money and is borrowing at high rates. Federation has recently borrowed at lower rates. RS is trying hard to negotiate pre-accession funding and other matters directly with the European Commission, which is inclined to accommodate. The Federation is intervening to prevent this, in order to preserve the prerogatives of the state government and block RS from weakening it further.
4. Kosovo:
No clear solution has emerged yet to the problems of the north, where Serbia still controls the territory. There is hope NATO and EULEX will resolve the issue of collection of taxes at the border posts, seized by Pristina last summer, but governance in the north is a bigger problem and can only be solved with Belgrade’s cooperation, which has not been forthcoming. It is not clear what the Europeans will insist on as the price for a positive decision on EU candidacy, due December 9, even though Merkel was clear enough on the need to eliminate the Serbian “parallel structures.” Meanwhile Pristina is weighing constitutional amendments, which may provide for popular election of the president (rather than election in parliament). But then they might have to augment the functions of the president as well.
All in all, not such a bad picture, if you consider the very real difficulties of post-war state building, which is a decades-long process. Afghanistan is the greatest of the concerns–it is just very difficult to picture how the situation there comes out well enough for U.S. troops to be able to stay on after 2014, an idea Karzai has been trying to sell to this week’s loya jirga. And even more difficult to picture how we would leave Afghanistan if things do not straighten out.
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The game is changing, but to what?
More than a little difficult to sum up today’s Middle East Institute “game changer” conference in a few words, but here’s a try:
1. Enthusiasm for Arab spring, with lots of uncertainty about both transition and how it will come out in the end. It is still the first five minutes. Economic problems loom.
2. Tunisia could be a hopeful bellwether: good electoral process, moderate Islamist victory, clear roadmap.
3. Libya shaky, with militias the big immediate problem but the constitutional framework provides a clear roadmap ahead, if they can stick with it.
4. But Egypt is the big prize. Things there are not going well: security shaky, military holding on, electoral process too complicated, liberals fragmented, Muslim Brotherhood strong, economy weak.
5. Revolution likely to succeed sooner or later in Syria, but possible high cost (civil war) and high payoff (depriving Iran of an important ally). Arab League moves do make a difference.
6. Also like to succeed in Bahrain and Yemen, but cost may also be high there.
7. Little hope to revive the Israel/Palestine peace process before the U.S. presidential elections, though Dan Kurtzer argued strongly for a bold U.S. initiative to define parameters.
8. Iran is gaining in Iraq and Afghanistan, but losing in Syria and the Arab world generally, as Turkey and smaller Arab monarchies gain but Saudis do not.
9. Israel, facing many uncertainties, hopes for preservation of the status quo but navigates when need be.
10. Lots of change, but overall outcome not yet clear.
These are obviously only my impressionistic highlights. I’ll be glad if others chime in.
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Happy anniversary!
Today marks the first anniversary of www.peacefare.net, more or less. Listen carefully to NPR, where a day sponsorship will mark the occasion! Here are the stats, as of this morning:
- Posts: this is number 562, not counting those I put up as “pages”
- Visits: Googleanalytics says 31,304
- Page views: 59,931
- Unique visitors: 16,790
- Countries of origin: 149
- Visitors from the U.S.: 56%, hence 44% non-U.S. (most from Serbia, Kosovo, Italy, Bosnia, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Sweden, Poland)
- New visits: 53%
- Pages per visit: about 2
- Minutes on site: about 2
I put all this in the so far, so good category. I might wish for more, but even if the numbers were double I’d likely still wish for more. And that high percentage of new visitors means peacefare is still growing, as do the 1200 or so Twitter followers, with 2-5 added most days.
The one clear area needing improvement is getting other people to write for the peacefare.net I’ve had a few fabulous friends, students and colleagues contribute wonderful pieces, but not as many as I would like. Peacefare is too much a solo act, something I regret. Please help me fix that!
I would also hope for more comments. My Balkans readers have engaged in rough and tumble debate, rarely moderated by my intervention. The Middle East hasn’t yet elicited the same feistiness. I wish it would.
Please accept my sincere thanks for your readership, which is really the only reason I do this almost every day. I could just as well tuck these thoughts away, as I did during more than four decades of diplomatic career at the UN, State Department and U.S. Institute of Peace. It is much more fun to get them out to you, so I sincerely hope you’ll keep reading, commenting and contributing when the spirit moves you.
On to year 2!
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Hold the line
Sonja Biserko, the courageous chair of the Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Belgrade, announces The End of the Kosovo Myth in a paper written for the Kosovo Foundation for Open Society project “Communicating with Europe”:
In order to secure a candidate status (provided it is genuinely interested in it), the Serbian Government will have to make efforts to repair the damage caused by the imprudent radicalization of the situation in northern Kosovo and to show readiness for a constructive continuation of dialogue with Pristina. It will have to do this by December, before the EU member countries vote on the Commission’s proposal for Serbia’s candidacy.
The Serbian Government and President have yet to dissociate themselves from the ‘log revolutionaries’. A firm position of the Government to this effect would help ease tensions and calm passions among Serbia’s citizens, who have long realized that Kosovo cannot be returned within Serbia’s borders. Serbs in Kosovo, including those living in the north, have no confidence in Belgrade’s policy and are much more realistic about the situation. As it turns out, ordinary people both in Kosovo and in Serbia have proved far more realistic and rational than government itself.
I hope she is correct in believing that the day is near when Belgrade will align itself with the more realistic expectations of ordinary people. In the meanwhile, it is important for Washington and Brussels to hold the line, insisting on a resolution of the northern border/boundary issues before candidacy and looking forward to resolution of all other Kosovo issues before Serbia achieves EU membership.
More on this Saturday, when I put up a piece I’ve done for Serbian Pravda on the Kosovo situation and Serbia’s EU candidacy.
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