Month: November 2011
Syria is not hopeless
Bashar al Assad continues to defy international pressure by cracking down violently on peaceful protesters in Syria. The internationals are running out of ideas about what to do: Arab League suspension, contact group, tightening sanctions against economic mainstays of the regime, helping the Syrian National Council (SNC) unify and project a program, renewed pursuit of a UN Security Council resolution and ambiguity about whether military force will be used are on Robert Danin’s list, which isn’t much different from Andrew Tabler’s.
What Danin and Tabler are trying to do is accelerate Bashar al Assad’s departure. I wish them luck in that, and I hope we do all they recommend. But I think we need also to prepare for a long siege. Bashar is trying to outlast the protesters, and he might well succeed unless they, and we, get smarter.
They need to get clever about new ways of defying the regime and demonstrating widespread support. The streets are dangerous these days, and the use of violence by some of the demonstrators is going to make it worse. Some stay at home, general strike or boycott-type demonstrations are in order. As Chenoweth and Stephan point out, it is much harder for the regime to respond to these. And much less risky for the demonstrators if they do nothing but fail to appear for work. More coordinated evening banging on pots and pans is another possibility. Do it twice and everyone will understand its significance.
The internationals also need to prepare for the long haul. This means using the time available to get the SNC up to snuff, with a serious plan and program for the future. Yeh, I know there are proposals for this working their way through the State Department, but too slowly for my taste. It also means talking with the Russians about their naval base at Latakia. They are sure to lose it if they don’t switch sides before Bashar falls. The trick is to convince them that his fall is inevitable and they may as well help make it happen, in hope of ensuring their basing rights for the future.
We also need to press for international human rights monitors. They appear to have been part of the Arab League deal (a written copy of which I still haven’t seen). At some point, the regime may give in to these, because it will want confirmation that it has defeated the protests. If Bashar continues to refuse them, he only embarrasses himself.
Syria is not hopeless. But it may take a long time.
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Waffling, weak-kneed, paltry stuff
Carl Bildt, Sweden’s able foreign minister, today tweeted this “good conclusion” from the Euroepean Union meeting today:
In the light of the new IAEA report, which is to be considered by the IAEA Board of Governors, the Council expresses its increasing concerns over the Iranian nuclear programme and the lack of progress in diplomatic efforts. It condemns the continuous expansion of Iran’s,enrichment programme, and expresses particular concerns over the findings of the IAEA Director General report on Iranian activities relating to the development of military nuclear technology. Iran has been found in violation of international obligations, including six UNSC and ten IAEA Board Resolutions. We urge Iran to address the international concerns over the nature of its nuclear programme
through full cooperation with the IAEA and by demonstrating readiness to engage seriously in concrete discussions on confidence building steps, as proposed by the HR on behalf of the E3+3. The Council recalled the latest European Council conclusions inviting it to prepare new restrictive measures against Iran. The Council will continue to examine possible new and reinforced measures and revert to this issue at its next meeting, taking into account Iran’s actions.
There may of course be something lurking here that is not spelled out: we can hope that there will in fact be “new and reinforced” measures out of the next meeting. But on the face of it, this is waffling, weak-kneed, paltry stuff from people who should know better and by now be ready to act.
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This week’s peace picks
As the weekly “peace picks” post has been taking me too long to assemble, and this week I’ve let it slide until Monday morning, I’m going to try doing less formatting and more cutting and pasting. As always, best to check the sponsoring organizations’ websites for registration, cost, RSVP and other information. And don’t forget the Middle East Institute’s annual conference at the Grand Hyatt November 17. The week is heavy on Afghanistan:
2. Afghanistan in 2011: A Survey of the Afghan People
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 9:30am on November 15, 2011 at www.usip.org/webcast.
On November 15, the U.S. Institute of Peace will host the Washington launch of The Asia Foundation’s “Afghanistan in 2011: A Survey of the Afghan People” — the broadest, most comprehensive public opinion poll in the country. The report covers all 34 provinces, with candid data gleaned from face-to-face interviews with more than 6,000 Afghan citizens on security, corruption, women’s rights, development, the economy, and negotiating with the Taliban.
This marks the seventh in the Foundation’s series of surveys in Afghanistan; taken together they provide a barometer of Afghan public opinion over time. With support from the U.S. Agency for International Development, the findings help inform national leaders, scholars, donors and the policymaking community focused on Afghanistan and the region. Join USIP and The Asia Foundation for a presentation of this year’s findings, and analysis of what the seven years of findings indicate for Afghanistan’s recent past, and the country’s future.
This event will feature the following speakers:
- David Arnold, introduction
President
The Asia Foundation - Tariq Osman, panelist
Program Director, Kabul
The Asia Foundation - Sunil Pillai, panelist
Technical Adviser, Kabul
The Asia Foundation - Sheilagh Henry, panelist
Deputy Country Representative, Kabul
The Asia Foundation - Andrew Wilder, moderator
Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Programs
United States Institute of Peace
3. Can Less be More in Afghanistan? State-building Lessons from the Past to Guide the Future
USIP, November 17, 10-noon
Ten years after the U.S.-led intervention in Afghanistan initiated a new, post-Taliban order, the success and sustainability of the international community’s ambitious state-building project is being questioned. Though billed as transformative, it is unclear whether the state-building investments and reforms of the past decade can be sustained, or will represent a job half-done.
With the Afghan engagement now at a critical juncture, marked by the convening of another Bonn conference in early December, international donor assistance budgets to Afghanistan are declining, prompting a need to look back as well as forward. Why has deeper and broader engagement been repeatedly attempted despite concern that many efforts have had limited and sometimes counter-productive effects? How can lessons from the past help to identify reasonable ways forward? Please join USIP for a discussion with a panel of leading experts to discuss this important topic at a critical juncture in the state-building history of Afghanistan.
- Astri Suhrke, panelist
Senior Researcher, Chr. Michelsen Institute
Author, When Less is More: the International Project in Afghanistan - J. Alexander Thier, panelist
Assistant to the Administrator and Director, Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs
U.S. Agency for International Development - Michael Semple, panelist
2011-2012 Carr Center Fellow
Harvard Kennedy School
- Andrew Wilder, moderator
Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Programs
United States Institute of Peace
4. Afghan Perspectives on Post-Transition
-
Thursday, Nov 17, 2011 | 10:30 am – 11:30 am
The Center for Strategic and International Studies presents
Afghan Perspectives on Post-Transition
featuring remarks by
Mr. Mohammad Haneef Atmar
Former Afghan Minister of Interior
Sponsored by ANHAM
Thursday, November 17, 2011
10:30AM – 11:30AM
CSIS B1 Conference Center
CSIS 1800 K. St. NW, Washington, DC 20006
CSIS will present the first in a series of speeches and Q&A sessions on perspectives for Afghan governance and issues following the 2014 transition. Our speaker for this first event is Mr. Mohammad Haneef Atmar. Mr. Atmar served as one of Afghanistan’s leading Ministers during his terms in office as the Minister of Interior (2008-2010), Minister of Education (2006-2008) and as Minister of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (2002-2006). We hope you can join us or send a representative.
| November 17, 2011 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | ||||
|
Please join the Better World Campaign, the United Nations Association of the USA and National Capital Area Chapter for a panel discussion on Sudan & South Sudan: United States and United Nations Engagement with
Princeton Lyman U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan and Francois Grignon UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations moderated by Peter Yeo Thursday, November 17, 2011 1:00– 2:30 p.m. 2103 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC a light lunch will be served R.S.V.P. |
||||
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Why I skipped Veterans’ Day
I skipped a Veterans’ Day post, as I find it difficult to imagine what I could say in tribute to the troops that hasn’t been said by others. But this from ThinkProgress has provoked me:
The speaker is Tennessee State Representative Womick, yes speaking on Veterans’ Day.
Womick is following in a long tradition. As California Attorney General Earle Warren (yes, the one who was later Chief Justice) put it when he advocated internment of Japanese Americans during World War II:
The Japanese situation as it exists in this state today may well be the Achilles heel of the entire civilian defense effort.
Japanese Americans went on to fight courageously for the United States in World War II, including many whose families were interned. The Japanese American 442nd Regimental Combat Team was highly decorated regiment, including 21 Medal of Honor recipients.
Womick’s sentiments are not uniquely American. Bashar al Assad feels the same way about protesters against his regime (as Qaddafi did), though admittedly torturing and killing them is worse than expelling them from the U.S. Army or interning them.
Worse, but only in degree. The underlying sentiment is the same: distrust of people because of who they are, no matter what they do (or do not do). This is gross intolerance, and it is far more pervasive today than we like to admit.
I’m sure Mr. Womick gives a rousing Veterans’ Day speech. I was glad not to post it.
PS: As luck(?) would have it, someone sent me this today:
I repeat: gross intolerance, far more pervasive today than we like to admit. Here is the antidote:
In case there is doubt, I am referring to the first minute or two of this clip, not the endorsement of Barack Obama in the last minute or so.
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Good news and bad
It is good news that Jerry Gallucci has taken up the challenge of seriously assessing the Ahtisaari plan provisions for north Kosovo. This is a first: a hard look at what it contains and how, from a northern Kosovo Serb perspective, it falls short or requires additional clarification. I don’t mean by this that I agree with what Jerry says, especially on the courts, applicable law and some other matters, but his is definitely a step forward. And well-crafted to boot. Please read before reacting. But by all means react: it would be a good idea for one or more of the capable think-tanks in Pristina to react point by point.
Gallucci couches his suggestions for improvements (from the north Kosovo Serb perspective still) in terms of implementation plans, rather than “Ahtisaari plus” or other formulations calculated to excite immediate rejection in Pristina. That is also good. But he continues to want “status neutrality.” He thinks Belgrade can refuse to accept Kosovo as sovereign and independent but gain all the substantial benefits that the Ahtisaari plan offers (and then some).
That’s the bad news. The ongoing quarrel over collection of customs at the north Kosovo border crossings with Serbia should by now have convinced everyone that lack of clarity about sovereignty and borders is a bad idea. I don’t know any two countries with a border that is not agreed and demarcated who have good relations. Belgrade and Pristina are not going to be an exception to the rule.
I fully accept that Belgrade will never bilaterally recognize Kosovo–the politicians there have repeated this line so often they can’t back up. Fortunately, they don’t need to. They just need to ask the Russians to stop blocking UN General Assembly membership for Kosovo, which requires a positive recommendation from the UN Security Council.
Eighty-five states have now recognized Kosovo. It will not be long before the recognizers outnumber the non-recognizers in the General Assembly, which could then move to make Kosovo a non-member state (the status Palestine is now seeking). Even within the EU, more than one of the non-recognizers may reconsider as governments there change.
Admission to the UNGA as a nonmember state won’t do much more for Kosovo than it will do for the Palestinians. It would be far better for Pristina and Belgrade to reach a real agreement, not only on how the Ahtisaari plan is to be implemented but also on status, which would then allow Serbia to pursue its ambition of EU membership without the ball and chain called Kosovo attached to its ankle.
Gallucci gives some reason for optimism on the status question, which is really two questions:
1) who are the properly constituted, democratic authorities in Kosovo?
2) are they sovereign and independent?
He goes so far as to say, “North Kosovo remains part of Kosovo, and that Kosovo’s territorial and political integrity be maintained.” His discussion of the Ahtisaari plan implementation includes participation by the north Kosovo Serbs in the Pristina institutions, which at least answers the first question definitively.
Here’s some more good news: the IMF says Kosovo’s policies are broadly on track, 2012 growth will be 4% and inflation is moderating. It is ironic of course that this corner of the euro zone is avoiding the problems bedeviling the bigger boys. My advice to Pristina: governing well is the best revenge.
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Syria still needs nonviolence
Today’s suspension of Syria from the Arab League will be seen by some as irrelevant, even risible. Who would even want to be a member of an organization as feckless as the one that 10 days ago reached an agreement with President Bashar al Assad to end the violence, only to see him turn around and gun down hundreds of protesters? Nor does the Arab League have a great record of achievement elsewhere, and many of its members would arguably respond to protesters in much the same way as Bashar has.
But that misses the point. The key to ending Bashar al Assad’s reign of terror in Syria is to attack his legitimacy. Anything that contributes, even marginally, to that end has to be counted as positive. International legitimacy is important to autocrats. Bashar certainly doesn’t care much about the Arab League–if he did he would not have so blatantly violated the agreement he reached with it–but if the League did not act at this point it would certainly redound to his benefit.
Assistant Secretary of State Feltman testified this week with admirable clarity about U.S. goals and strategy: we want to see protesters protected, Bashar out, and a transition to democracy begun. But he was also appropriately modest about our capacity to get what we want. Our primary leverage is through the European oil embargo, which seems to be holding, and other, mainly financial, sanctions, which are beginning to bite. There is not, at the level of goals, much of a gap between the Administration and outside experts like Andrew Tabler, who also testified.
But Andrew did have some specific policy suggestions worthy of consideration: formation of a Syria contact group, development of a strategy to peel away the regime’s supporters, helping the opposition unify and begin planning for transition, pushing for human rights monitors, preparing for military action and pressing for a Security Council resolution.
The Administration is certainly pursuing several of these already. Feltman made it clear that international monitors is among them, as is helping the opposition. Surely they already are thinking in terms of a strategy to peel away the regime’s supporters and are beginning to press again for Security Council action.
The one that gives me pause, and likely does likewise Feltman, is preparing for military action. It would certainly be justified against a regime that is taking military action against its own citizens, but any visible preparation for international military action will encourage violent resistance inside Syria. That is a bad idea. As Feltman makes amply clear, Bashar al Assad is intentionally encouraging violent resistance, as it solidifies the security forces as well as his political support and gives him every reason to crack down forcefully.
Just as important: there is not likely to be any military protection for the protesters, apart from welcoming those who flee along the border with Turkey. Russia will block any authorization in the Security Council, the Europeans are exhausted after Libya and preoccupied with the euro crisis, and the Arab League is still far from asking for the use of force. The Americans stand to gain a great deal from peaceful regime change in Syria, but violent change will risk ethnic and sectarian warfare with wide and potentially devastating regional consequences.
Bashar is finished, sooner or later. We need to worry about making sure that what comes after is a democratic regime prepared to allow all Syrians a say in how they are governed. That will be far easier to accomplish if the protests can be kept peaceful, no matter how violent the regime gets. For those who doubt this proposition, I can only recommend Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works.
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