Responding to the Islamist wave

Islamists have now won pluralities in recent Tunisia, Morocco and the first round of the Egyptian elections.  There is every reason to believe they will continue to do well in Egypt and in Libya.  How should the U.S. and Europe respond?

Calmly.  It is not surprising that relatively well-organized Islamists, who for decades led often underground opposition to nominally secularist and nationalist autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya (and to the monarchy in Morocco), are doing well in the first sort-of free and fair elections.  Yes, relatively secularist youth led the protests earlier this year, but they are not reaping the electoral fruits.  There has not been nearly enough time for them to organize, and in Egypt they have been more inclined to protest in Tahrir than to get out to the hustings.  Secularism, stained by autocrats and often viewed as synonymous with atheism (not only in Muslim countries), faces a long uphill struggle.  Separation of mosque and state is not even on the horizon.

In Tunisia and Morocco, the parties winning pluralities seem determined to avoid the worst excesses of Islamism, but there are going to be constant tussles over veiling, alcohol, status of women and other religious/social issues.  In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has also been toeing a relatively moderate line, but the far less moderate and Salafist Nour party is also doing well. In all three countries, at least some of the Islamists would like to imitate the success of the ruling Turkish Islamists, who have managed to gain a clear majority by moderating their once more militant views.

The Islamists who do well this year will have an enormous challenge ahead of them, as economic conditions are going to be difficult.  This may force some degree of moderation, or at least reduce the saliency of social/religious issues and give secularists some time to get their act together.

The key battleground in my view will be rule of law.  Rule of law is where secular regimes in Muslim countries have most obviously failed.  It is also the area where many Muslims regard Islamists as offering a credible alternative.

Islamists think Sharia should be the basis of law in Muslim countries, as in fact it nominally was even under supposedly secular autocrats.  The question is one of degree and interpretation.  If Europe and the United States want the 2011 Arab spring to result in democratic regimes that respect human rights and see eye to eye with the West, they are going to need to engage seriously on rule of law issues.  This would mean helping the judiciaries of these countries to rid themselves of corruption and enabling them to establish the kind of independence from executive authority and moderate interpretations of Sharia that might lead to legitimacy in the eyes of the people.

Sincere secularists have advantages in this struggle for hearts and minds.  The more than 50 per cent of the population that is female cannot expect equal rights under the more extreme interpretations of Sharia.  It is hard to picture the substantial middle classes of Tunisia or Morocco accepting public stoning of adulterers.  Egypt’s Christian minority will want a more moderate legal regime.

But to take advantage of these advantages, secularists and more moderate Islamists will need to regroup after these elections and get serious about protecting individual human rights and independence of the judiciary.  Their friends in the West should provide support.