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Please, Athens, prove me wrong

Is Greece in the Balkans?  Of course the answer geographically is yes.  But its leaders now have to decide whether it is still culturally part of the Balkans–where many games are zero sum, with one side’s loss being the other’s gain.  Or whether Greece has really become part of Europe, where at least in good times a rising tide is expected to lift all boats.

The occasion is today’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) decision that Athens violated a 1995 “interim accord” when it blocked Skopje’s entry into NATO at the Bucharest summit in 2008 under the awkward name “The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.”  The court went on to decline to order Athens not to do it again, saying:

As the Court previously explained, “[a]s a general rule, there is no reason to suppose that a State whose act or conduct has been declared wrongful by the Court will repeat that act or conduct in the future, since its good faith must be presumed”

How I wish that such presumption were justified!

These are not good times for Europe in general, but especially not for Greece.  It is paying a high price for fiscal profligacy.  Many in Europe are still expecting a formal default on its sovereign debt, followed by who knows what:  exit from the euro?  German receivership? Greeks are furious at their government for the austerity it has been forced to impose and what many regard as the unfair distribution of the burdens of fiscal adjustment. The kind of growth that might lift Greece out of its debt trap seems nowhere in the forecasts.

I’m afraid this will not put Athens in a mood to do the right thing by Macedonia:  accept it for NATO membership as The FYROM and go back to the negotiating table with renewed determination to find a more permanent solution.  We have the unfortunate and recent precedent of Serbia, which also recently lost its case when the ICJ advised that Kosovo’s declaration of independence breached no international prohibition.  Did Serbia change its tune?  No.  It simply said the ICJ had answered the wrong question (a question posed, yes, by Belgrade).

Please, Athens, prove me wrong:  show us all that you have left behind the beggar-thy-neighbor politics of the Balkans and instead want to demonstrate truly European credentials by unblocking membership in NATO for The FYROM.  That in turn would allow Montenegro an invitation to enter as well, giving renewed vitality to the Alliance and reenergizing the Balkans to proceed with the many reforms the Euro-Atlantic institutions require.

Montenegro, shield of the West

That is, of course, super-hyperbole:  Montenegro is a tiny country of fewer than 620,000 people whose virtues include a beautiful coastline along the Adriatic and willingness since the late 1990s to be counted in the growing pro-democracy, pro-Europe camp in the Balkans.  It can lay reasonable claim to being the most ethnically integrated (and varied) country in the region (only 45% of the population self-identifies as “Montenegrin” tout court).

The postage-stamp sized country gained independence from its union with Serbia, the last remnant of Yugoslavia, in 2006 and has since made good progress.  It is now a candidate for membership in the European Union but will not complete the 35 chapters of the membership process for some years.

Montenegro’s leadership would like to bring it into NATO, even if only 40% of the population is currently in favor (30% are undecided).  But the Montenegrins hesitate:  the Americans are telling them it will be difficult to do this in May at the NATO summit in Chicago.  They are excessively respectful of American advice.  Neither NATO nor the EU is in an expansive mood in this era of euro-schlerosis (or worse) and difficulties pursuing the Alliance war in Afghanistan.  That is unfortunate for the NATO, which has so far benefited from its investment in enlargement.

The Montenegrin military numbers a bit over 3000.  A couple of dozen participated in NATO’s Afghanistan mission and others have joined UN mission in Liberia and Cyprus as well as the EU naval mission off Somalia.  Podgorica (that’s the charming capital, once known as Titograd) is well-intentioned, but its capacities are miniscule.

Still, it would be a good idea for Montenegro to get fully read and to press for NATO membership, and for NATO to think about opening the door.  Why?  First, as one keen Balkan-watcher notes, Montenegro is first in line, so if it is shut out none of the other candidates can come in.  This would be particularly problematic if Macedonia, which is fully qualified for NATO membership but blocked by Greek objections to its name, were to manage somehow to get itself unblocked.  That could happen:  either because Athens and Skopje come to an agreement on the name (unlikely) or because the International Court of Justice decides that Skopje–under an agreement with Greece signed in 1995–is entitled to come into NATO under its awkward UN designation:  The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (The FYROM).

The ICJ decision on that question issued today may, or may not, open the door for Macedonia to enter NATO as The FYROM.  The court decided that Greece had violated the agreement but said it could not order Greece to allow The FYROM into NATO.  Such respect for sovereignty seems almost quaint.  But what it does is to leave the issue, once again, up to Athens, which so far has shown no inclination to put this issue behind it.  Let’s hope Greece makes a wiser decision this time around.

There are more than tactical reasons for admitting Montenegro to NATO.  It would help to convince all the non-NATO, non-EU members in the Balkans that they really do have an opportunity to join the West, even if they may have years more of preparation before they fully qualify.  It would raise the ante with Serbia, where the majority of the population opposes NATO membership.  And it would help to insulate Montenegro against any instability that arises in either Bosnia or Kosovo, where things are still not fully settled.  

With an active push, NATO membership is at least possible for all of these countries far sooner than EU membership is likely for any of them.  Chicago is an opportunity to keep the Balkans and NATO moving forward at minimal cost in these uncertain times.