This is not easy

American Ambassador Robert Ford is returning to Damascus, where violence continues.  Security forces and pro-regime militias killed dozens yesterday while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was meeting with opposition Syrian National Council members in Geneva.  It is not clear how many the defector-manned Free Syrian Army has killed, but the SNC is claiming its armed partners will only defend Syrians and not undertake offensive operations.

There is no sign of the Arab League observers Bashar al Assad claims to have agreed could be deployed.  Syria is now saying that sanctions have to end before observers can be deployed.  I guess Damascus forgot to mention that earlier.

What is to be done?  More of the same I am afraid.  There is no quick solution.  Even if Bashar were to exit suddenly, there would still be a regime in place fighting for its life with the resources Iran provides.  The effort now has to focus on tightening sanctions, especially those imposed by the European Union and the Arab League as well as Turkey.  It is important also to continue to work on the Russians, who have so far blocked any UN Security Council resolution.

Burhan Ghalioun, who leads the SNC, goes over all these issues and more in his Wall Street Journal interview last week.  Unfortunately, it attracted attention mainly for what he had to say about Syria being able to recover the Golan Heights and breaking its military alliance with Iran.  Much more interesting were his commitment to nonviolence, to a “civil” state, to countering sectarianism, to Arab solidarity and to building a serious democracy with rule of law.  The outlines of an SNC program are starting to emerge, including a desire for an orderly transition, maintenance of state institutions and elections within a year.  But I found it hard to credit his dismissal of the Muslim Brotherhood.  It has long played an important underground role in Syria and is likely to persist as an important political force in the post-Assad period.

The Americans seem to me still focused on hastening Bashar’s removal.  That is certainly a worthy goal, but it may not happen.  We also need to be worrying about sustaining the nonviolent opposition, which is under enormous pressure every day.  Ambassador Ford’s return may give them a boost, but he is unlikely to be able to do much to help them or to communicate effectively with the regime, whose listening skills are minimal.

Getting the observers in would be one important step, but it is unclear to me whether they really exist.  If Bashar did agree to them, could the Arab League deploy them within a reasonable time frame?  Who are they?  How many?  How have they been trained?  What rules of behavior will they follow?  How will they report?

Bluff is not going to win this game.  Enforcing sanctions, persuading the Russians to go along with a Security Council resolution, deploying Arab League observers, sustaining the protesters, keeping an exit door open for Bashar:  none of it is easy, but together these things may begin slowly to turn the tide.

Here is Bashar al Assad with Barbara Walters:  he asks for evidence of brutality, denies that he has given orders for a crackdown and suggests the UN is not credible. He likely also thinks the sun revolves around the earth: