Happy new year, Balkans!

I seem to have developed the habit of doing a piece for Kosova Sot‘s New Year’s edition.  Here is what I sent Magarita Kadriu on December 20:

Friends in Kosovo and the Balkans often ask me what I think about events there.  The truth, if I care to tell it, is that people in Washington don’t think much about the Balkans these days.  The Council on Foreign Relations recently published a list of 30 conflict prevention challenges for the United States in 2012.  None involved the Balkans.  I follow events there—mainly from B92’s coverage and many Balkans visitors—but only with peripheral vision.  I am far more focused on the Arab spring, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.  And this week North Korea.

I am well aware that there are still war and peace issues in the Balkans, especially in Bosnia and in Kosovo.  But they are relatively small ones subject to a lot of international monitoring:  Milorad Dodik is not going to be able to take Republika Srpska in the direction of independence without a lot pressure being brought to bear against the idea, and Belgrade is not going to be able to formally annex northern Kosovo without suffering substantial consequences.

That does not mean however that the underlying problems can be resolved.  Resolution really depends on the Europeans, who have often shown little stomach for using their leverage to good effect.   I say that, and yet just yesterday German Chancellor Merkel made it clear, once again, that the European Union will not accept partition of Kosovo (or the persistence of the parallel structures in the north) and expects Belgrade and Pristina to collaborate in finding solutions.  Her steadfastness is a great contribution.

I only wish we were seeing the same strong European voice in Bosnia, where Catherine Ashton has been far more tolerant of Dodik’s antics than I would like.  This is partly because the Europeans don’t take him seriously.  They know he knows there will be no recognition if Republika Srpska makes the mistake of declaring independence.  But they underestimate the frustration and annoyance on the Bosniak side of the equation.  Bosnia is stagnating, a condition that is not good for peace and security.

That said, I don’t expect dramatic developments in 2012.  Pristina and Belgrade need to continue their dialogue and the search for mutually acceptable solutions, which can be found in implementation of the Ahtisaari plan.  Bosnia is reaching the end of its financial rope, which may encourage at least formation of the new state government, so long overdue.  Much of the rest of the Balkans is enjoying a relatively good holiday season:  Croatia is entering the EU, Macedonia won its case in the International Court of Justice against Greece, Montenegro is moving faster than most thought possible towards the EU and NATO.

Serbian President Tadic yesterday acknowledged that neither partition nor restoration of Serbian sovereignty in Kosovo is possible.  Now he is talking “dual sovereignty.”  I’ll be glad to hear what he means by this—certainly dual citizenship is not only possible but desirable.  But I don’t know of any places that enjoy peace and stability without clarity about sovereignty.

Kosovo’s citizens have every right to be frustrated that their sovereignty and independence has not been recognized at the United Nations or by Belgrade.  But the best revenge is simply this:  govern well, improve the lot of all of Kosovo’s citizens, and enjoy freedom each and every day in 2012.

Ten days later, I don’t have much to add, but my message would be the same to Belgrade and Sarajevo:  govern well, improve the lot of your citizens and enjoy freedom each and every day in 2012.  The Bosnians have apparently reached agreement in principle on forming their government. So far as I know, everything else is more or less where it was before Christmas. Things move slowly in the Balkans, except when they move fast.

Slow is probably safer right now, but I do hope Serbia will make a decisive turn in 2012 in favor of a European future. Serbian Interior Minister Ivica Dačić gives me some hope this morning with this from B92:

We are going to the EU because of Serbia and only if it is in our interest. Serbia will not be destroyed if it loses Kosovo. That happened in the Serbian history before, that fanaticism about being in love with Europe or masochism that we cannot live without Kosovo or the Republic of Srpska.

Then he dashes my optimism with talk about “demarcation.” Hard to know what that means, but it presumably refers to his partition ambitions. Giving up on partition, both of Kosovo and Bosnia, is absolutely essential if Serbia and the rest of the Balkans is going to thrive.

I’ll be in Belgrade in mid-January and hope to get a feel for how likely that is. Stay tuned to peacefare.net for reports on what I find.

With very best wishes for the New Year to friends of all flavors in the Balkans,