This week’s peace picks

An off-the-record discussion with: Sondos Asem (by video-teleconference) Egyptian political commentator Member of the Muslim Brotherhood Mohamed Elmenshawy Director, Regional Studies Middle East Institute Moderated by Michele Dunne Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Atlantic Council Please join the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East for an off-the-record discussion of Egypt’s landmark parliamentary elections. Preliminary election results indicate that Islamist forces may win 70 percent or more of the People’s Assembly seats, with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) perhaps winning a majority on its own. How will the FJP use its new parliamentary weight and how will its relations with the military leadership, Salafis, and other political groups change? Will the FJP push for the formation of a politically representative cabinet? How will the election results affect the drafting of Egypt’s new constitution, including provisions for the rights of women and non-Muslims? How will liberal, revolutionary, and other non-Islamist political forces operate in this new ideological landscape? How will the new parliament affect Egyptian-US relations and other aspects of Egyptian foreign policy, including the treaty with Israel? Sondos Asem, participating by video-teleconference, will shed light on the FJP’s parliamentary agenda and relations with other political groups. Mohamed Elmenshawy will discuss the outlook for liberal political forces as a minority in the new parliament. Sondos Asem is a political commentator affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and a leading voice in Egypt’s social media sphere. Ms. Asem is currently writing a Master’s thesis on social media at the American University in Cairo. Mohamed Elmenshawy is a scholar and the director of the languages and regional studies program at the Middle East Institute. He writes a weekly column for the Egyptian daily newspaper al-Shorouk.

2.  US-Israel and Iran: Looming Military Confrontation? Atlantic Council, January 17, 3-4:30 pm January 17, 2012

Please join the Atlantic Council’s Iran Task Force on January 17 for a public briefing on the rising conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Tensions are mounting as the United States and Europe tighten economic sanctions against Iran, and Iran responds with a ten-day naval exercise in the Persian Gulf, and threatens to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the United States and Israel are preparing for their own joint military exercise, “Austere Challenge 12.” Are the chances for a military confrontation between Israel and Iran and between the United States and Iran increasing? Would Israel consult the United States before attacking the Iranian nuclear program? What would be the consequences for the region and world economy?Panelists will discuss these issues, the impact of the domestic political climates in Israel and the United States on Iran policy, and possible diplomatic approaches to the Iranian nuclear program.

The Iran Task Force, co-chaired by Atlantic Council Chairman Senator Chuck Hagel and Ambassador Stuart E. Eizenstat, seeks to perform a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s internal political landscape, its role in the region and globally, and any basis for an improved relationship with the West.

A discussion with

Michael Eisenstadt
Director, Military and Security Studies Program
Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow
Brookings Institution

Introduction by

Shuja Nawaz
Director, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council

Moderated by

Barbara Slavin
Senior Fellow, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council

To attend, RSVP with your name and affiliation (acceptances only), to southasia@acus.org.

3. “The Western Balkans and the 2012 NATO Summit,” U.S. Helsinki Commission Hearing, B318 Rayburn, January 18, 2 pm

As the United States and other NATO allies prepare for their summit in Chicago on May 20-21, this hearing will assess the current relationship with NATO of each of the countries of the Western Balkans with the goal of deeper engagement and further enlargement.  While further enlargement of the European Union after Croatia’s entry next year remains a more distant goal, greater Euro-Atlantic integration has the potential to increase stability in the Western Balkans now, and strengthen the Alliance in the process. The focus of the hearing will be on what Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia need to do meet their respective Euro-Atlantic aspirations, including the building of democratic institutions and adherence to the rule of law at home.  The hearing will also look at the potential contribution each could make to the NATO alliance, as well as NATO’s continuing role in deterring further violence and conflict in the Western Balkans.

Witnesses Scheduled to Testify:

Nida Gelazis, Senior Associate, European Studies, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Daniel Serwer, Professor and Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (will particpate via Skype)

Ivan Vejvoda, Vice President for Programs, German Marshall Fund of the United States

The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the U.S. Helsinki Commission, is an independent agency of the Federal Government charged with monitoring compliance with the Helsinki Accords and advancing comprehensive security through promotion of human rights, democracy, and economic, environmental and military cooperation in 56 countries. The Commission consists of nine members from the U.S. Senate, nine from the House of Representatives, and one member each from the Departments of State, Defense, and Commerce.

4.  Author Event: Arsalan Iftikhar, “Islamic Pacifism”  Busboys and Poets, January 18, 6 pm.

Arsalan Iftikhar will discuss and sign his book, “Islamic Pacifism: Global Muslims in the Post-Osama Era”. Arsalan Iftikhar is an international human rights lawyer, global media commentator, founder of TheMuslimGuy.com and global managing editor of The Crescent Post. Additionally, he is also a regular weekly legal affairs/political commentator for the National Public Radio (NPR) show Tell Me More with Michel Martin and a contributing writer for CNN.com and Esquire Magazine (Middle East edition). Co-sponsored by the Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC). http://bbpbooks.teachingforchange.org/book/9781463553128. Free and open to everyone.

5. Taiwan’s Presidential and Legislative Election: Implications for Cross-Strait Relations, U.S. Policy and Domestic Politics.

Featuring FPRI Senior Fellows

Shelley Rigger Davidson College

Vincent Wang University of Richmond

Terry Cooke GC3 Strategy, Inc.

Jacques deLisle Professor of Law at the University of Pennsylvania

Register for webcast/teleconference

In the January 14, 2012, elections, Taiwanese voters faced a choice between giving a second term to Ma Ying-jeou—who has pursued a policy of closer economic ties and broader rapprochement with the Mainland and who has drawn criticism for lackluster leadership, economic inequality and drawing to close to the PRC—and Tsai Ing-wen—whom Beijing and opponents in Taiwan portray as reckless proponent of independence and a threat to the economic gains achieved or promised by Ma’s policies. In voting for a legislature—for the first time held jointly with the presidential election, the Taiwanese electorate face a similar choice between retaining a supermajority for Ma’s KMT or giving Tsai’s DPP a larger share.

FPRI Senior Fellows Shelley Rigger, Vincent Wang, Terry Cooke and Jacques deLisle assess the elections’ meaning and implications: Why did the winners win and the losers lose? What does the outcome portend for cross-Strait relations during the next four years? What is likely to be the impact on U.S. policy toward, and relations with, Taipei and Beijing? What are the implications for the future of Taiwan’s democracy and for the significant economic, social and foreign policy decisions Taiwan’s government faces in the near term?

Shelley Rigger is the Brown Professor of East Asian Politics at Davidson College in Davidson, North Carolina. She has a PhD in Government from Harvard University and a BA in Public and International Affairs from Princeton University. She has been a visiting researcher at National Chengchi University in Taiwan (2005) and a visiting professor at Fudan University in Shanghai (2006). Rigger is the author of two books on Taiwan’s domestic politics: Politics in Taiwan: Voting for Democracy (Routledge 1999) and From Opposition to Power: Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (Lynne Rienner Publishers 2001). She has published articles on Taiwan’s domestic politics, the national identity issue in Taiwan-China relations and related topics. Her current research studies the effects of cross-strait economic interactions on Taiwan people’s perceptions of Mainland China. Her monograph, “Taiwan’s Rising Rationalism: Generations, Politics and ‘Taiwan Nationalism’” was published by the East West Center in Washington in November 2006.

Vincent Wang is Professor of Political Science and Chairman of the Department at the University of Richmond, specializing in international political economy and Asian studies. He has been a Visiting Professor or Fellow at National Chengchi University (Taipei), National Sun-Yat-sen University (Kaohsiung, Taiwan), El Colegio de Mexico, and Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University (Seoul, South Korea). He received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. His latest and forthcoming publications cover the China-India rivalry, the rise of China, and China-Taiwan relations.

Terry Cooke is a Senior Fellow in FPRI’s Asia Program and the principal director of GC3 Strategy, Inc., an international consultancy specializing in sustainability-related technologies and capital linkages between Asia and the U.S. Previously, Dr. Cooke was Director of Asian Partnership Development for the Geneva-based World Economic Forum. He has advised the Lauder Institute on global business outreach as a member of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School’s Department of Management. Dr. Cooke was a career-member of the U.S. Senior Foreign Service, with postings in Taipei, Berlin, Tokyo and Shanghai.

Jacques deLisle is Director of FPRI’s Asia Program and Professor of Law at the University of Pennsylvania, specializing in US-China relations, Chinese politics and legal reform, cross-strait relations, and the international status of Taiwan.

Particpants will be able ask questions online or via the telephone. You may also submit questions via email: questions@fpri.org.