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Syria is coming to a head

The Arab League has suspended its human rights monitoring mission.  The UN Security Council is discussing seriously a resolution on Syria.  The anti-regime Syrian National Council is looking for international intervention to establish a safe zone. The Assad regime has amped up its violent repression, and the Free Syria Army is amping up its response. Civil war is in the air.   This is a truly dangerous situation, but also one that could turn in a good direction.

The danger lies in further escalation of violence:  the regime still holds the advantage in firepower and manpower.  Increased violence will solidify support among regime loyalists and reduce the numbers of protesters in the streets.  Frightened Alawite, Christian and other minorities will rally around the regime, dreading the consequences of a Sunni majority victory, especially one in which the Muslim Brotherhood plays a strong role.

Opportunity lies in the UN Security Council resolution.  It needs to define a clear transition path away from the Assad regime that has the support of Moscow and no objection from Beijing.  The Arab League is proposing a handover of power to Bashar al Assad’s vice president and formation of an inclusive government, followed by elections.  This is vaguely similar to the Gulf Cooperation Council plan for Yemen, where its effectiveness has been less than 100%.  The devil is in the details:  how inclusive the government is determines whether it has real legitimacy, but broad inclusiveness is difficult to achieve (neither regime nor protesters will want to sit in the same room with their antagonists) and will likely limit its ability to make decisions.

The key to the UNSC resolution is Russian support, which depends on convincing Moscow that it stands to lose more by backing the Assad regime rather than abandoning it.  Above all, Russia will want guarantees of continued access to port facilities in Syria.  It is distasteful no doubt to the Syrian opposition to provide any guarantees to Russia, which has backed Assad shamelessly.  But that is the price of the UNSC resolution, which takes priority right now.

It is not easy to follow the evolution of a UNSC resolution, but the International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect is trying.  It looks as if the European/Arab initiative will only come to a head next week, likely not before Wednesday.  If they can get a resolution passed that defines a clear political path forward, along the lines of the Arab League proposal to be presented on Tuesday, that would be a tremendous step forward.

In the meanwhile, we can expect further escalation of violence in Syria, with the regime taking advantage of the suspension of the monitoring mission to do its dirtiest work and the Free Syria Army responding with the limited means at its disposal.  I see no sign yet of an appetite for an international intervention like the one in Libya.  While NATO may be doing some quiet preparations, the Alliance is not buzzing the way it normally does before taking action.  The Russians will ensure that any UNSC resolution cannot be interpreted to authorize military intervention.

I continue to believe that nonviolent action is the best course of action for the anti-regime forces.  A further slide to civil war is not to their advantage, both because they lack firepower and because it will discourage passage of a satisfactory Security Council resolution, defined as one that outlines a political way forward.  I understand perfectly well the impulse (and justification) for self-defense and even for offensive maneuvers.  But violence will lengthen the process of bringing Bashar down and reduce the odds of a peaceful and democratic outcome.  For those who doubt this, consult Chenoweth and Stefan.

Some readers may ask, why should the U.S. care?  The short answer is that sectarian civil war in Syria could create real difficulties in Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey and elsewhere, destabilizing a part of the world that is already requiring an inordinate amount of American attention.  And just about any imaginable post-Assad regime is likely to be less friendly to Iran.  The fall of Assad could be a big plus for American diplomatic efforts to weaken Hizbollah and Hamas as well as block Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Next week could be crucial.  Neither the regime nor its opponents can endure much more.  Syria is coming to a head.