peacefare.net

At best a rough transition

Reidar Visser has the details, but what it amounts to is just this:  Prime Minister Maliki has outmaneuvred Iraqiyya–the political coalition led by Ayad Allawi that once had the most seats in the Iraqi parliament.  Its boycott of parliament has lost it a few seats.  Its ministers never really implemented its boycott of the government.  Maliki has managed to strengthen his hold on the reins of government, which is increasingly a majoritarian one.  Power sharing is evaporating.

The question is whether democracy can survive Maliki’s efforts to protect and enlarge his hold on power.  Iraq’s institutions are weak.  The courts haven’t dared challenge him.  The Supreme Court has been particularly submissive.  Those provinces that have wanted to hold referenda on becoming regions have so far been blocked from doing so.  Iraqiyya, having joined the governing coalition, is getting few of the benefits promised but cannot play a serious opposition role either.  Having gained full control of the security forces, Maliki has been cracking down on the press, on protesters and on prominent members of Iraqiyya, including a vice president of the country and a deputy prime minister, who are hiding out in Iraqi Kurdistan.  There is even a crackdown on women’s dress in government offices.

I don’t think there is any doubt but that Maliki’s instincts are not entirely democratic.  How could they be?  He spent a lifetime protecting his Dawa party from Saddam Hussein’s attempts to wipe them out.  He sees conspiracies everywhere he looks.  Even paranoids have enemies.  It would be surprising if Maliki did not.  Knowing Saleh Mutlaq, his hyperbolic deputy prime minister, he gave Maliki ample reason to doubt his loyalty, even if there was likely little substance behind the words. Ambassador Jeffrey should stop claiming that Iraq is still the most democratic country in the Middle East–ignoring Israel, you now have Tunisia and even Libya contesting that position.

But Maliki’s self-protective instincts will not necessarily win the day.  Even in Baghdad, it is going to be hard to put the genies of free speech, competitive elections and free association back in Aladdin’s lamp. The key to realizing Iraq’s democratic potential lies in its parliament.  It is there that Allawi needs to find a way of playing a more serious game by at least occasionally blocking Maliki from marshalling a majority.  This will require more effective wheeling and dealing with the Sadrists and the Kurds than Allawi has managed so far.  The budget, amnesty, referenda on new regions–there are lots of opportunities to develop coalitions of the willing that can counter Maliki’s worst instincts, which are not so different from those of many American politicians.

What holds autocratic instincts in check in the U.S. are institutions and political competition.  Those are things that need strengthening in Iraq.  Maliki is clearly tending to the needs of the army, police and other security forces, with lots of help from Washington.  The Americans would do well to focus what remains of their civilian assistance on making sure pluralism and the institutions that protect it are strong enough to weather what is going to be at best a rough transition.