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Plan B

Yesterday a treasured Twitter follower described me as optimistic on Syria, because I saw some promise of a serious transition in the current draft UN Security Council resolution.  The caveats did not fit in 140 characters:  I was optimistic if the draft resolution were to pass and if the Americans, Europeans and Arab League continued to insist that Bashar al Assad step aside and allow the transition to begin.

Today it is clear that the first of my caveats has not been realized:  the Russians and Chinese have both voted against, with 13 other members of the Security Council voting in favor.  This is a real setback, heading us into  scenarios 2 or 4 of my previous post on how bad things could get:  the regime wins or civil war.  We’d be lucky now to get into scenario 1:  divided sovereignty, with some areas held by the opposition.

Moscow and Beijing will no doubt sell the vetoes back home as necessary to defy the U.S. and stop Western imperialism of the sort that took down Muammar Qaddafi in Libya.  In fact what they have done is to protect Bashar al Assad at a moment when he is killing more of his own people than ever.  Over 200 are reported to have lost their lives in overnight shelling of a neighborhood in Homs, an epicenter of the uprising.  Yesterday’s commemoration of the father’s slaughter of people in Hama thirty years ago has sadly led to ferocious confirmation that the son is struck from the same mold.

What is to be done now?  Some will propose military intervention without Security Council approval.  That was done in Kosovo, where the UN blessed the outcome in Security Council resolution 1244 even if had not blessed the intervention before it happened.  I doubt the U.S., NATO or the Arab League have the stomach or resources for that.  If they had wanted to do that, they would not have allowed a vote at the Security Council.

They are much more likely to feed the violent opposition to the regime by arming and perhaps training the Syrian Free Army, which appears to have liberated parts of the country but is unable to hold them if the unfree Syrian army strikes back.  Encouraging the Syrian Free Army will unfortunately put the country on the path to civil war, with frightening consequences for minorities and secularism if the rebels win and even worse consequences for the Muslim Brotherhood if they lose.  And terrible consequences for everyone if the fighting is prolonged.

Far preferable in my view would be a return to nonviolent protest, with Arab League observers once more deployed in an effort to protect demonstrators from the worst abuses.  Certainly the situation has deteriorated badly since the Arab League monitors were confined to quarters.  Getting them out into the main contested areas as soon as possible would at least provide the eyes and ears required to communicate what is going on to the rest of the world, even if Bashar al Assad now seems unlikely to accept restraints.

President Obama this morning issued a statement that includes this:

The Syrian regime’s policy of maintaining power by terrorizing its people only indicates its inherent weakness and inevitable collapse. Assad has no right to lead Syria, and has lost all legitimacy with his people and the international community.

I agree that Assad has no right to lead Syria and has lost legitimacy, but unfortunately it does not follow that the regime’s collapse is inevitable. No doubt even a defeated UNSC resolution, when the vote is 13 to 2, confirms a loss of international legitimacy.  But the father also lost legitimacy and nevertheless survived for many years thereafter, successfully passing power to the son.

What the United States, Europe and the Arab League need to do now is to keep up the pressure by maintaining and tightening sanctions, redeploying the observers if it is safe enough to do so and encouraging continued nonviolent protest in forms (boycotts in particular) that do not expose large numbers of people to the regime’s violence.  They also need to consider new measures:  blockade of arms shipments?  extension of the financial sanctions used against Iran to Syria?  Reinforcement of the Arab League observers?

Yesterday’s worldwide demonstrations focused on Syria’s embassies abroad.  The next round should focus on Russia’s and China’s.

Some of the bodies from the massacre in Homs that the regime says didn’t happen: