Day: February 13, 2012
Boning up on China
As readers of this blog will know, I am not an Asia expert and hesitate to write about a part of the world with vast significance to the United States. But it is hard to ignore China when its heir apparent, Xi Jinping, comes to town. I thought it might be useful for me to list a few readings I am finding interesting:
1. Kenneth Lieberthal and J. Stapleton Roy in this morning’s Washington Post argue for restraint by both Beijing and Washington, hoping to avoid strategic rivalry turning ineviably to military confrontation. But this they suggest will require not only dialogue but a new set of agreements far more explicit and formal than the widely accepted American hegemony in the Pacific that has provided an unprecedented period of peace and stability there in recent decades.
2. Colleagues at CSIS have prepared a briefing specifically on Xi Jinping’s visit, which the Americans and Chinese are advertising as focused on “getting to know you,” even though he is in fact a fairly well-known figure here. But lots of issues will lurk just below the surface.
3. Americans are amply familiar with U.S./China issues like trade and monetary policy, but a relatively few Americans worry about the South China Sea, which according to Patrick Cronin and colleagues is vital to American interests in the Pacific. I may not be able to buy their proposed naval buildup, but the discussion of the issues is the best I’ve seen.
I’m sure there is a lot more good material out there and will welcome suggestions from readers. We are all going to have to bone up a bit on China.
This week’s peace picks: better late than never!
I was ill last night and didn’t get the peace picks up until late today, but here are a few of the best items for the week, heavy on Iraq:
1. Recent Developments in Cyberwarfare
February 13, 2012, 12:00 – 1:30 PM – Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C. Headquarters
Please join Hudson Institute’s Center on Economics of the Internet for an address by Gen. James Cartwright (USMC, ret.), Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies at CSIS.
General Cartwright served as Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, before being nominated and appointed as the eighth Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the nation’s second-highest military officer. During his four-year tenure as Vice Chairman, spanning two presidential administrations and overseeing constant military operations against diverse and evolving enemies, Cartwright became widely recognized for his technical acumen, vision of future national security concepts, and keen ability to integrate systems, organizations, and people in ways that encourage creativity and spark innovation in the areas of strategic deterrence, nuclear proliferation, missile defense, cyber security, and adaptive acquisition processes.
Senior Fellow and Director of the Center, Harold Furchtgott-Roth, will moderate the discussion.
2. The PLA Navy ‘Lobby’ and Its Influence Over China’s ‘National Sovereignty’ Policies, February 13, SAIS
08:30 AM – 05:30 PM
American University Washington College of Law, Room 603
4801 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DCThe revolutions throughout the Middle East and North Africa have captured the world’s attention. As a result, many questions have emerged including whether human rights and international laws have been violated, whether the use of force has been appropriate in certain domestic conflicts, and whether it is likely for similar movements to occur in other regions of the world. Through panel discussions with scholars and practitioners in the field, this symposium will facilitate substantive dialogues that address many of these complex legal and quasi-legal questions. Specifically, symposium participants will discuss how to build the rule of law within this region and the role of the international community in internal state disputes. Additionally, participants will dissect the relevant history and causes of the Arab Spring, and explore the future application of international law norms in light of the on-going civil unrest throughout this region.Presented by the International Law Review PROGRAM AGENDA
Ad Melkert, Joel Rayburn, Marina Ottaway Tuesday, February 14, 2012 – Washington, D.C.
12:15 PM – 2:00 PM EST
5. Is Hamas Changing?
Foundation to Defend Democracy
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POMED DC Events Calendar
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john.simon@pomed.org
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Hamas and Fatah signed a reconciliation agreement; Hamas leaders are exiting Syria, and Hamas’ funding from Iran may be drying up. Are these events prompting Hamas to consider a change in strategy? To assess this question, FDD is pleased to host a breakfast conversation on Wednesday, February 15 at 9:30 am with Nathan Brown, Hussein Ibish and Jonathan Schanzer. Breakfast and registration will begin at 9:15 am. If you haven’t already, we encourage you to register here. Please RSVP by February 13 to ensure your spot. If you have other colleagues who might be interested in attending, please feel free to share this invitation. For questions, contact Annie at annie@defenddemocracy.org or 202-250-6144.
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6. Post-Occupation Iraq: The Brittleness of Political Institutions
with
Adeed Dawisha
Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center and
Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Miami University, Ohio
The hope during the American occupation of Iraq was to actively encourage the creation of functioning democratic institutions, so that by the time Iraq attained full sovereignty it would be well on the way toward democratic consolidation. While the democratic structure seems to be in place, its performance leaves much to be desired. Political parties are defined more by ethno-sectarianism than ideology; Parliament is weak; the prime minister exhibits a clear propensity for authoritarianism; and the issue of federalism has been turned into a recipe for the division of the country. Still, politics so far is conducted within the corridors of political institutions. And while violence persists, to date it has not replaced dialogue and discussion as the avenues for settling differences and disputes. Dawisha will discuss how long this delicate balance could persist and whether it could withstand major crises.
The Institute for the Study of War presents
Iraq After the U.S. Withdrawal
ISW cordially invites you to an on-the-record panel discussion on the evolving political crisis in Iraq and its implications for Iraqi stability and U.S. national interests. The departure of all American troops from Iraq in mid-December 2011 removed constraints on Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s political behavior, increased his fears of survival, and accelerated his efforts to consolidate power. Sectarian politics is becoming the norm in the Iraqi government, and violence is increasing. Immediately following Maliki’s visit to Washington days before the last troops left, Iraqi Security Forces issued a warrant for the arrest of Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, sparking a political crisis that continues today. This panel will analyze the unfolding political crisis, deteriorating security trends, and prospects for renewed insurgency and civil war in Iraq. The panel will also discuss the ramifications of this crisis for U.S. policy towards Iraq and the Middle East.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Noon to 2 p.m.
Lobby Conference Center
1400 16th Street NW
Washington, DC 20036
A light lunch will be provided.
Please RSVP no later than Tuesday, February 14.
For more information, contact Tricia Miller at
tmiller@understandingwar.org or 202-293-5550 ext. 210.
Panelists:
Dr. Kenneth M. Pollack, the director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, is an expert on national security, military affairs and the Persian Gulf.
Dr. Laith Kubba is the senior director for the Middle East and North Africa program at the National Endowment for Democracy. He was born in Baghdad, Iraq, and served as a government spokesman and senior advisor to Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari in 2005.
Marisa Cochrane Sullivan is the deputy director at ISW, where she supervises the Iraq and Afghanistan Projects. Sullivan also conducts research on Iraqi political dynamics and the security environment in central and southern Iraq.
Moderator:
Dr. Kimberly Kagan, the founder and president of ISW, conducted many regular battlefield circulations of Iraq between May 2007 and April 2010. She participated formally on the Joint Campaign Plan Assessment Team for MNF-I and U.S. Mission-Iraq in October 2008 and October 2009 and on the Civilian Advisory Team for the CENTCOM strategic review in January 2009.