Wising up

Two weeks ago, I was getting ready to write a post suggesting that Bashar al Assad would likely win his current contest with Syrian protesters.  It looked as if they had made a definitive choice in favor of a violent uprising, one that the Syrian security forces are capable of defeating.  The net result would have been a low-level insurgency, aka civil war, one that would lead to increasing sectarian separation and destabilization of neighboring countries, including Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq.  That outcome–the worst of all possible worlds for the United States–is still possible.

But Friday’s 41 peaceful demonstrations in Damascus, a few of them large, suggest that the opposition has wised up.  Rather than a force-on-force confrontation they are bound to lose, the protesters spread out their efforts and kept them non-violent.  Such coordinated risings in the capital are far more important for gaining adherents and defying the regime than killing a few soldiers or even Shabiha (non-uniformed regime goons) would be.  It has forced the regime today to rush its security forces into the capital to squelch the defiance and re-establish fear.  With any luck, they’ll find nothing to repress, as the protesters will hopefully be ready to ignite efforts elsewhere.

This is smart revolution.  Drawing lines around specific territory and trying to defend it would be dumb revolution, because it identifies precisely the territory that the regime has to attack to kill its enemies. It has shown no hesitancy to do that.  Safe areas and humanitarian corridors are unsafe unless defended with adequate force, which no one has yet shown any sign of readiness to field.

Meanwhile on the diplomatic front, the Chinese are showing some signs of veto remorse, averring openly that they support the Arab League plan calling for Bashar al Assad to step aside and allow his vice president to take charge of a transition to democracy.  I’d be the first to admit that a similar scheme is not looking so great in Yemen, where yesterday’s one-candidate election will presumably lead to Vice President Hadi’s takeover of power and initiation of some kind of transition.  The problem in Yemen is that those sharing power do not include the protesters who initiated the revolution and who reject amnesty for former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The situation in Syria is different.  There really is no question of amnesty for Bashar.  The best he can hope for is exile in Iran, which backs him to the hilt.  But he could just as well end up dead like Muammar Qaddafi or on trial like Hosni Mubarak, prospects that are presumably inspiring his murderous attempts to repress the demonstrations.

“Friends of Syria,” the international coalition in favor of the revolution, plans to meet Friday in Tunisia.  This is a good occasion to reiterate support for the Arab League plan, tighten sanctions, press for greater unity among the Syrian opposition and reiterate support for nonviolent protest.  It may also be a good opportunity to strategize about bringing China and even Russia into the fold.  The Chinese seem halfway there.  The Russians will need some guarantees on access to port facilities in Syria before signing on.

Meanwhile, watch those Iranian warships that traversed the Suez Canal yesterday.  They have now docked at Tartus.  If they deliver weapons or personnel to Syria, it would be a good moment for someone to intervene.  That’s not trivial, since there is no arms embargo, but that’s why we’ve got all those clever lawyers in the State Department.  I hope they are busy scribbling the decision memos.

PS:  The Iranians claimed the ships docked, but the Pentagon says they never did.  Maybe someone in Tehran understood the risk.