A bridge too far
Marc Lynch, in an otherwise convincing report advocating vigorous diplomatic rather than military means in dealing with Syria, goes a bridge to far:
The time has come to demand a clear choice from Syrian regime officials. They should be clearly warned that their names are about to be referred to the ICC [International Criminal Court] on charges of war crimes. It should be made clear that failure to participate in the political transition process will lead to an institutionalized legal straightjacket that would make it impossible for them to return to the international community. This should be feasible, even without Security Council agreement. [my bolding] Top regime officials should be left with no doubt that the window is rapidly closing on their ability to defect from the regime and avoid international prosecution.
Unfortunately, it isn’t feasible without Security Council agreement. Though it was a signatory, Syria is not state party to the ICC statute, so its citizens can’t be referred to the ICC without UNSC approval. If anyone tries such a referral anyway, I imagine Syria would “unsign,” as the U.S. did when Washington grew concerned that signing might undermine protections for U.S. soldiers.
This is a flaw, but not a fatal one for the report as a whole. Marc reviews the military options that have been discussed most commonly and concludes that they are cures worse than the disease. Likewise arming the opposition will make the civil war worse and likely fail to enable the opposition to win.
Unfortunately, that throws us back to strengthening sanctions, deepening diplomatic isolation, trying to unify the opposition and that last resort of the desperate, improving strategic communications about the regime’s misbehavior. I don’t think Anderson Cooper can do much more on CNN in this last category than he is already doing.
This menu of policy options will be totally unsatisfactory to Syrians, and frankly also to me. There is no question but that the use of force against the Syrian regime would be justified. But reality is what it is. There are no good military options and few good non-military ones. I have some hope Beijing at least will come around on Syria, but that would still leave Russia as a veto in the Security Council.
If ever there were a clear illustration of why diplomacy matters, this is it. Let’s hope the Syrian protesters, who are showing lots of courage, can continue to surprise and dismay the regime with nonviolent demonstrations. The more they can make it relatively safe to show support for the rebellion, the more people will show up to herald the end of Bashar al Assad.
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