Counter-revolution lives, but not forever
The past few days have seen ample signs that counter-revolution is alive and well:
- Syrian troops have retaken Baba Amr in Homs after weeks of shelling and the Free Syria Army’s tactical retreat.
- Vladimir Putin won his unfree and unfair election for President in Russia, routing the few candidates allowed to run.
- Iran’s President Ahmedinejad suffered losses to allies of Supreme Leader Khamenei in parliamentary elections that were no more free or fair than Russia’s.
The Syrians have fought their regime tooth and nail. The regime will exact terrifying revenge. The Russian protesters will demonstrate against Putin’s high-handedness. Bravo to Tony Picula, an election observer from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), who said:
There was no real competition, and abuse of government resources ensured that the ultimate winner of the election was never in doubt.
The Iranian protesters will roll over and play dead, exhausted by a regime that is constantly narrowing the space for political expression even as sanctions point it in the direction of an economic abyss. Facebook and Twitter are proving no match for determined autocrats willing to spill blood and fix elections.
That said, autocrats have their problems too. Bashar al Assad is broke and faces continuing high expenses as he tries to reduce Syria’s rebellious cities and neighborhoods one by one. Putin sits atop a system so corrupt and discredited that many are predicting his electoral victory will be Pyrrhic: the beginning of the end. Iran’s elites are at each other’s throats even as the President Obama assures Israel’s supporters that the United States will use military force if necessary to prevent Tehran from getting a nuclear weapon.
This last is the top priority for the United States. President Obama has clearly decided not to focus American military might againt Bashar al Assad but rather to husband resources for the main event, if it proves necessary: an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations that will have to encompass its air defenses and likely command and control systems as well. Hillary Clinton’s “reset” of relations with Russia is in trouble, but Russia is more an obstacle–something you trip over rather than something that really blocks the way–than a threat to American vital interests. Syria is a proxy war, one that is absorbing vast Iranian resources that Tehran can ill afford to divert from other priorities.
Sanctions and other diplomatic means do not produce results on a predictable timeline. Cuba has endured an American embargo for many decades. Military action has unpredictable consequences and does not always bring the intended results. Strategic patience is vital, but in short supply during an American electoral campaign. Counter-revolution lives, but it won’t last forever.
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