Day: April 2, 2012
Tune in to state TV
With all the brouhaha this morning about Arab Gulf states agreeing to pay the Free Syria Army, the real news is lost: Syrians in Damascus are continuing to demonstrate nonviolently. This video is from March 30:
Ameer @7__r (“a Syrian guy living in Damascus”) tweets this morning:
Large numbers of Shabiha and security forces arrived to Rukn al-Deen neighborhood of #Damascus to suppress the anti-regime sit-in. #Syria
Nonviolent protests of this sort continue every day in Syria, demonstrating not only the courage of the participants but also the illegitimacy of the regime.
The participants have every right to defend themselves. But if they do so aggressively the resulting violence will discourage others from joining them. It is only by mobilizing many thousands of people, including defectors from the armed forces, that the opposition in Syria will win. If the payments to the Free Syria Army (FSA) get its armed youth to stand by and protect the demonstrators, rather than attacking the Syrian security forces, I suppose they might contribute something. But if the FSA continues to go on the offensive, picking off a soldier or two and maybe even a tank, it will thoroughly discourage not only defections but also the kind of mass participation in the protests that leads to success.
The payments to the FSA will also affect the diplomatic situation. There the impact may be helpful. Moscow has already denounced the Friends of Syria meeting at which the Syrian National Council announced them. But if Moscow wants to avoid further moves in the direction of arming and training the opposition for a military effort against Bashar al Assad, it needs to reconsider its support for him now. The time to switch sides is before he starts to teeter, not afterwards.
There is also some chatter about American “communications” support for the opposition. I’d be amazed, and appalled, if the U.S. government is not already providing cell phones, satellite phones and internet links as well as other equipment.
What the Syrian opposition really needs now from the United States is close coordination with intelligence capabilities, which presumably track the movements of the Syrian security forces. Bashar has had significant military success lately in retaking population centers, blocking the borders and chasing the revolutionaries around Robin Hood’s barn. They need to know where his forces are and where they are headed in order to avoid losing battles that should not happen.
I wish the SNC well, and giving it the money to pay the FSA will hopefully make it stronger and more united (even if I fear it may do the opposite). But there are far more important things to be done in Syria than trying to create an army while fighting a war.
Getting large numbers of coordinated, nonviolent demonstrations of opposition to the regime mounted in Damascus I would put first. These need not be sit ins or street demonstrations. It would work just as well if entire sections of the city shut down on a working day, with everyone staying home and tuning in to state television.
Brevity is the soul of wit, but mockery was what Shakespeare had in mind when he said it.
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Peace picks this week
The big event is Carnegie’s with Islamists on Thursday, but the week somehow starts on Wednesday with an event of my very own, he said unashamedly:
1. Does an Asterisk Make a Difference? SAIS Rome auditorium, 10-11:30 April 4
Belgrade and Pristina–after sustained U.S. and EU pressure–have agreed that Kosovo will be identified with an asterisk in European regional meetings. The asterisk will make reference to both UN Security Council resolution 1244 and the International Court of Justice advisory opinion on the legality of Kosovo’s declaration of independence.
The asterisk deal is causing second guessing on both sides. What does it tell us, or not, about Kosovo’s status? How does it affect the relationship between Pristina and Belgrade? What implications does it have for U.S. and EU approaches to conflict management?
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
10:00-11:30 a.m.
Rome Auditorium
1619 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Moderator:
Michael Haltzel
Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations
Speakers:
David Kanin
Adjunct Professor of European Studies
Daniel Serwer
Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations
Professor of Conflict Management
2. Delegation of Egypt’s Freedom & Justice Party, Georgetown University, 12:30 April 4
Event Details
**Please note venue: Lohrfink Auditorium**
A Discussion with
Official Delegation of Egypt’s Freedom & Justice Party (FJP)
Wednesday, April 4 -12:30pm
Lohrfink Auditorium
Rafik B. Hariri Building (2nd floor)
Georgetown University
Panelists:
Member of Parliament, Freedom and Justice Party – Luxor
Member, Foreign Relations Committee, Freedom and Justice Party
Businessman
Advisor, Muslim Brotherhood and Freedom and Justice PartySondos Asem
Senior Editor, Ikhwanweb.com
Member, Foreign Relations Committee, Freedom and Justice Party
Khaled Al-Qazzaz
Foreign Relations Coordinator, Freedom and Justice Party
Chair:
John L. Esposito
University Professor & Founding Director, Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding
For a map showing the location of the Rafik B. Hariri Building, please visit:
http://maps.georgetown.edu/rafikbhariribuilding/
For more information, please visit:
http://acmcu.georgetown.edu
3. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty CATO 4 pm April 4
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
4:00 PM (Reception To Follow)
Featuring the coauthor Daron Acemoglu, Killian Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; with comments by Karla Hoff, Senior Research Economist, Development Economics Group, World Bank; moderated by Ian Vasquez, Director, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, Cato Institute.
The Cato Institute
1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
If you can’t make it to the Cato Institute, watch this event live online at www.cato.org.
Institutions — not geography, culture, or other factors — explain why some nations succeed and others fail. So says Daron Acemoglu in an ambitious new book drawing evidence from thousands of years of human history and from societies as diverse as those of the Inca Empire, 17th century England, and contemporary Botswana. Inclusive political and economic institutions, influenced by critical junctures in history, produce virtuous cycles that reinforce pluralism in the market and in politics. Acemoglu will contrast that pattern of development with that experienced under extractive institutions. He will also describe the conditions under which institutions favorable or inimical to development tend to arise. Karla Hoff will provide critical comments.
4. Islamists in Power: Views from Within, Carnegie but at the Grand Hyatt
Thursday, April 5, 2012 – Washington, D.C.
8:45 AM – 4:45 PM EST
Islamist parties have emerged as the strongest contenders in recent elections in Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco, and are likely continue to do well in future elections in other countries. It is clear that Islamist parties will have a dominant impact on the outcome of Arab transitions, but there is little understanding in Washington of what that will mean for governing.
On April 5, high-level representatives of Islamist parties from Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, and Libya will participate in a one-day event convened by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Agenda
| 8:45-9:00 a.m. | Opening RemarksJessica Mathews, President Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
| 9:00-10:45 a.m. | Building New Regimes after the UprisingsModerator Marwan MuasherPanelists Mustapha Elkhalfi (Morocco) Abdul Mawgoud Rageh Dardery (Egypt) Nabil Alkofahi (Jordan) Sahbi Atig (Tunisia) |
| 11:15 a.m.-1:00 p.m. | Writing a New ConstitutionModerator Nathan BrownPanelists Khaled Al-Qazzaz (Egypt) Osama Al Saghir (Tunisia) Mohamed Gaair (Libya) |
| 1:00-2:30 p.m. | Recess |
| 2:30-4:30 p.m. | Economic Challenges of the TransitionModerator Masood AhmedPanelists Hussein Elkazzaz (Egypt) Mondher Ben Ayed (Tunisia) Nael Al-Masalha (Jordan) Abdelhadi Falahat (Jordan)—not yet confirmed |
| 4:30-4:45 p.m. | Closing Remarks |
5. What is in and what is not in the much-disputed newest constitution in Europe: the Fundamental Law of Hungary, National Press club, 4 pm April 5
Jozsef Szajer
April 5, 2012 4:00 PM
Location: Zenger Room
National Press Club “AFTERNOON NEWSMAKER”
News Conference
Thursday, April 5, 2012, 4 p.m.
National Press Club (Zenger Room)
Member of the European Parliament (MEP) and Author of the new Hungarian Constitution,
JOZSEF SZAJER
Contacts: National Press Club: PETER HICKMAN, 301/530-1210 (H&O/T&F), 301/367-7711 (C), 202/662-7540 (NPC, pjhickman@hotmail.com
Mr. Szajer: Andras Szorenyi (Embassy of Hungary), 202/415-3653 (t), Andras.Szorenyi@mfa.gov.hu
For More Information On This Event,
Please Contact:
Peter Hickman
301-530-1210
6. The Afghanistan Security Transition: the Role and Importance of Afghanistan’s Neighbors, USIP, 10-12 April 6
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 10:00am on April 6, 2012 at www.usip.org/webcast.
As the 2014 security transition in Afghanistan approaches, multiple tracks need to be pursued to ensure sustainable peace in the country. A regional solution is often touted as a critical element in achieving such a peace. Without collaborative buy-in for such a solution, however, the potential increases that Afghanistan’s neighbors will play a destabilizing role in the country given their own domestic and international objectives. Despite much debate on this issue, the core interests policies, and views of Afghanistan’s neighboring states are still not well understood.
Join USIP to discuss how Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors – Pakistan, Iran, and the bordering Central Asian Republics – view the present situation and impending transition in Afghanistan, and what their role and policies are likely to be between now and 2014, and beyond. What measures can the U.S. and other allies take to incentivize policies of cooperation and collaboration from these neighbors with the ultimate objective of promoting stability in Afghanistan? USIP works on the ground in Afghanistan and Pakistan to promote the nonviolent resolution of conflicts and build local capacity to prevent and address disputes through nonviolent means.
This event will feature the following speakers:
- Abubakar Siddique, panelist
Senior News Correspondent
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
- Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh, panelist
Associate Researcher, Peace Research Institute Oslo
Professor MPA/Sciences Po (Paris) - Alireza Nader, panelist
Senior International Policy Analyst
RAND Corporation
- Moeed Yusuf, moderator
South Asia Adviser
United States Institute of Peace
7. Global Nuclear Security and Preventing Nuclear Terrorism, National Press Club, 10 am April 6
Location: Zenger Room
Panel to Discuss Global Nuclear Security and Preventing Nuclear Terrorism
Date and Time: April 6 at 10 a.m.
Place: Zenger Room, National Press Club, 529 14th St. NW, 13th floor
With the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran a concern of many world leaders, particularly those in the United States and Israel, a panel of foreign policy practitioners will speak at a Press Club Newsmaker on global nuclear security and ways to prevent nuclear terrorism.
Panel participants will be:
• Robert Gallucci, president of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and former chief U.S. negotiator during the North Korean nuclear crisis of 1994
• Sharon Squassoni, director and senior fellow, Proliferation Prevention Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
• Joseph Cirincione, president, Ploughshares Fund
• Alexander Glaser, assistant professor, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
Contact Info: Keith Hill (khill@bna.com)
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