Serbia*

Yesterday’s shoot out over the Kosovo asterisk surprised me.  David Kanin conceded the merits of my argument that legally UN Security Council resolution 1244 does not guarantee Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo but rather provides the basis for a decision on Kosovo’s final status.  Nevertheless, he said, the asterisk was still a defeat for Kosovo because Pristina resisted it.  Serbia, which has argued long and hard that 1244 preserves its sovereignty, somehow won the political match.

This is a bit like deciding who won a soccer game by listening to which team’s fans cheer louder rather than by the score.  That’s not my way.   I admit that I’d have liked to see reciprocity in the asterisk requirement:  Serbia* with reference to both 1244 and the International Court of Justice opinion, which condition Belgrade’s sovereignty more than Pristina’s.  But the score is at least 2-zip (1244 and ICJ), no matter how loud Belgrade cheers.

There is one aspect of 1244 that is negative for Kosovo:  the continuing presence on its territory of the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), which has now been reduced to uselessness or worse.  Pristina has been trying to get it out of there.  Washington should help.

David also made two other points with which I can wholeheartedly agree:  that the five EU states that have not yet recognized Kosovo should do so, and that the EU should make explicit that neither Kosovo nor Serbia will get membership until they have settled the outstanding issues between them.

But I disagree with David’s reasoning on the first point.  On the second, it is already clear, to anyone whose eyes are open.

Contrary to David’s claim, the five nonrecognizing EU states (Cyprus, Romania, Greece, Spain and Slovakia) are no longer a serious obstacle to Kosovo’s relationship with the EU.  So long as the asterisk is used, they cannot block Kosovo’s progress towards a visa waiver or a Stabilization and Association Agreement, unless there is good substantive reason to do so.  They have in essence given up their vetoes now that there is a clear basis for Kosovo’s “contractual relationship” with the EU.  The main reason now for the five to recognize Kosovo is that it makes no sense not to do so.  This they will realize gradually and one by one will succumb, Cyprus last.

Several EU states have already publicly stated that Kosovo and Serbia will not enter as members until they’ve settled the issues between them.  More say it privately.  Just one (of the current 27) is really required to make this threat real.  My guess is that more than 20 current members (plus Croatia, which will join next year) will insist on this point, which is consonant with the EU requirement for “good neighborly relations.”  Presumably the reason the EU does not state this as policy is reluctance to pull the rug out from under Serbian President Boris Tadic, who has promised his country both EU membership and sovereignty over Kosovo.

Tadic is not blind and knows full well that he is making a promise he cannot fulfill.  He may still to be hoping for partition of Kosovo, a proposition neither the Americans nor the Europeans will permit because of its broader regional consequences.  But membership is a long way off still.  As long as the EU doesn’t threaten too explicitly to keep Serbia out until it gives up Kosovo, Tadic can continue his charade.  If I were a European diplomat, I would want that game to end as soon as the May elections are over.

One more thing:  I understand that Belgrade is still holding Hasan Abazi, a Kosovo trade unionist it arrested in retaliation for Pristina’s arrest of several Serbs, now released.  Abazi is being processed in a Serbian court whose jurisdiction is nominally in Kosovo.  The very existence of this court is a violation of UNSC resolution 1244.  This is an outrage.  I trust the Kosovo authorities (prime minister and foreign minister) will mention this issue to the Americans during their current visit to Washington.  I certainly encourage them to do so.

I promise:  this is my last post mentioning the asterisk, which is an issue that has lost its charm.  But I am tempted to have badges made up with a big * on them.  Maybe I should parade with one in Mother Theresa Street on my next visit to Pristina?