Grasping at straws

That’s what the thinktanksphere is doing on Syria:  Bruce Jones at Foreignpolicy.com offers a hazy scenario in which the Syrian army allows a Turkish-led “stabilization force” in with a wink and a nod, even without a UN Security Council mandate.  Fat chance.  Only if Bashar al Assad thinks he has won a total victory and needs the internationals to pick up the pieces.

What no one wants to admit in Washington is the obvious.  The most likely scenario is Bashar al Assad continuing in power and fighting a low-level insurgency against Free Syria Army units.  This is a very bad scenario for the United States and anyone else in the world concerned about stability in the Middle East, which is just about anyone who uses oil.  We have already seen refugee flows to Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan.  Deadly shots have been fired across the border into Lebanon  and Turkey.

Of these countries, only Iraq is an important source of oil, but that is no small matter with gasoline at or above $4 per gallon in the U.S. and Iraq pumping all it can (around 2.7 million barrels per day).  With Saudi Arabia and Qatar talking openly about arming the opposition in Syria, how long do we think it will take for Syria and Iran figure out ways to retaliate?  Even hard talk can cause increases in oil prices.  Damascus and Tehran, which are heavily dependent on oil revenue, are hoping that the threat of regional chaos will enrich their coffers, weaken the American economy and make us accept Bashar al Assad’s continuation in power.

This is not an easy situation, and it may endure.  We need to be clear about what does and does not further U.S. interests.  The goal should be the end of the Assad regime.  That would serve not only U.S. interests, but just about everyone else’s except Iran’s.  Even Russia is not going to find Assad’s Syria the reliable partner it was in the past.  But while Bashar persists we need to try to ensure that the means used to achieve his downfall do not cause more harm than necessary.  Arming the Syrian opposition plays into Bashar’s narrative:  terrorists are attacking a regime ready to reform.

Recommitment of the opposition to nonviolent seems impossible to many at this point, but in my view it could be game-changing.  A real opportunity exists tomorrow, when the UN-sponsored ceasefire is supposed to take effect.  The Syrian government says it will stop all “military fighting” as of 6 am tomorrow. Admittedly this leaves big loopholes:  how about police and the paramilitary forces known as Shabiha?  Who is there to verify compliance?  But the right response from the opposition is to make a parallel announcement that it will halt all military action at the same time.  That will provide an opportunity for a return to peaceful demonstrations.

The possibility is less imaginary than might appear.  Most Syrians are not taking up arms against Bashar al Assad, and those who do are not having a lot of success.   Here is a nonviolent “flash” demonstration said to be in front of the Syrian parliament yesterday, with demonstrators holding signs that say “stop the bloodshed”:

The revolutionary leadership would do well to ask the Free Syria Army to take a break tomorrow morning and see what happens.  If nothing else, doing so will gain the revolution significant credit internationally.

Admittedly I too am grasping at straws.  But it seems nothing else is left.