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Ingredients of success

I’m spending the day at the “The Arab Spring:  Getting It Right,” the annual conference of the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy in lovely Crystal City.  Here are a few highlights. 

The first session focused on the ingredients for successful democratic transitions.  Here are my quick notes:

Dan Brumberg, Georgetown, in the chair:

• Systemic problems need systemic solutions:  if you get rid of torture, you need forensics.
• Need process of consensus and pact-making.
• Religion is an important dimension of identity that needs to be part of that process.

Jason Gluck, USIP:  constitution-making

• People need to know why they need a new constitution.  What are the core principles they want enshrined there?
• Egypt:  battles over timing, constitutional committee reflect lack of answers.  Exclusiveness undermines the constitution-writing body.
• Tunisia:  using simple majority, not consensus, in committees writing the constitution, with little outreach to civil society beyond Tunis.
• Libya:  only four months for constitution-writing, which doesn’t allow deep consideration or public participation.  Inclusivity is in doubt.
• Process matters more than constitutional content.  Because it makes for legitimacy.  Making a constitution is a political, not a legal exercise.  It incarnates core values of the state and society.
• Not a drafting exercise but a national dialogue about needs and aspirations.
• Inclusive, participatory, consensual, transparent, deliberative processes are more likely to have good results.

Alfred Stepan, Columbia:  transition needs these elements:

• Legitimate constitution written by a representative group.
• A government results from popular vote.
• Powersharing (with military or religious authorities) is not necessary
• The government has to have real authority over policy.
• Civil society more important in deconstructing autocracy than in reconstructing the state, which requires political society and leadership.
• Major transitions (end of WWII, 1989) have required international support, but Arab awakening is getting much less external assistance.
• Brumberg:  ironically, opposition consensus building happens more in autocratic society like Tunisia rather than in more open one like Egypt.

Tunisia has been successful because parties have been talking with each other and developing consensus (pact-making) for a long time (since 2003)

Laith Kubba, National Endowment for Democracy:  getting it right means avoiding chaos or crisis.  Indicators:

• Military “neutralized” and under civilian control:  Tunisia OK, Egypt not and militias are the problem in Libya.
• Security apparatus has to shift from protecting regime to protecting state.
• Economic equity has to increase.
• State institutions need to emerge that allow society to be free, including at local level.
• Democratic culture, including associations, free but responsible press.
• New elites emerging in political parties, youth groups, think tanks.
• Education improving.

Big risk:  those who reject democratic culture as a foreign import.

Comment from a Tunisian participant, whose name I missed:

• Traditional solidarity was important in Tunisia.  Reduced likelihood of revenge.
• So too was role of women.

The second session focused on regional and global impacts:

Radwan Ziadeh, Syrian National Council and Carr Center, Harvard

• Syria is not like Tunisia, Yemen or Libya.  It is  now more like Bosnia:  international community hesitancy, political opposition cannot deliver so Free Syria Army is taking over, regime crimes are systematic.
• Hoping for protection of civilians in a safety zone along Turkish border by an Administration that includes people who made the mistakes in Bosnia.
• Three hundred observers are insufficient.
• Need for military action without UN Security Council approval, but UNGA (137 countries) and Friends of Syria provide cover.
• Everyone looking for U.S. leadership, but Washington is inhibited by domestic considerations, lack of oil interest.
• Arabs lack resources and legitimacy to act.

Brian Grim, Pew Research Center:  Religion and the Arab Spring

• Government restrictions on religion are increasing in more countries and those with greater population before Arab spring.
• Problem is especially strong in Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where constitutional guarantees for religious freedom are not strong and apostasy laws are prevalent, enforced both by governments and social hostilities.
• Restrictions on conversion 80% in MENA, where both government violence and social hostilities are prevalent.

Caryle Murphy, Woodrow Wilson Center:   A View from the Gulf (especially Saudi Arabia)

• Arab Spring affects Saudi Arabia externally:  Egypt, Bahrain, Iraq.
• Saudi effort is to manage and keep it away from the Gulf.
• Foreign policy activism:  GCC confederation?  First step with Bahrain?
• Riyadh is disappointed in the U.S., lack of confidence in U.S. willingness to intervene.
• Arab Spring also affects Saudi Arabia internally:  TV, internet and Twitter have made young Saudis more aware of the rest of the world and want to be more like it.  Ditto those studying abroad.
• But impulse is still evolutionary, not revolutionary.  Unemployment is the big youth problem.  Government is aware but will it move fast enough to accommodate youth demands for jobs and more freedom?
• Society still very conservative, political consciousness very limited, including both secularists and Islamists.
• Petitions for constitutional monarchy, Umma party formation led to government clampdown.
• Eastern Province:  Shia very unhappy.
• Religion is a focus of debate, which is important because it is the foundation of legitimacy.

Aylin Unver Noi, Gedik University (Turkey):  Regional Alignments

• Ankara has shifted foreign policy towards Middle East.
• Sunni resistance camp emerging, pro-Palestinian, Islamist-led, democratic governments.
• Revolution in Syria would cause it to join this camp, as Jordan might.
• Turkey concerned with Kurdish aspirations, especially PKK activities in Syria.