Chicago holds a key to the Balkans

Soren Jessen-Petersen* and I drafted this piece as an op/ed but it didn’t sell.  Sign of our times–the Balkans are not a priority in Washington, or even in Chicago.  So we are posting it here, in advance of the NATO Summit next weekend.

The Balkans are superficially peaceful this spring.  Serbia held elections May 6, having happily achieved the envied status of a candidate for European Union (EU) membership earlier this spring, as has Montenegro.  Croatia is scheduled to enter the EU next year.  After a long hiatus under a caretaker government, Bosnia is enjoying a moment of relative comity among its notoriously fractious Croats, Serbs and Muslims.  This fall, Kosovo will complete its four and a half-year tutelage under an “international civilian representative” who supervised its independence.

But there are still serious problems that need to be resolved and little sign of progress.  The 49 per cent of Bosnian territory that Serbs govern is without the plurality of its population that was non-Serb before the war.  Its independence-seeking president makes no secret of his resistance to their return and disdain for the government in Sarajevo.  He has succeeded in getting the EU to deal directly with him and his minions on many issues that need to be resolved before Bosnia can even become a candidate for membership.

Kosovo may be independent, but the government in Pristina has no control over the northern 11% of its territory, where the Serb population refuses to accept the substantial autonomy it would be permitted under the internationally negotiated “final status” settlement for Kosovo.

Perhaps the most delicate of today’s Balkans problems lies in Macedonia, whose population is about one-quarter ethnic Albanian.  Small-scale violence between ethnic Albanians and ethnic Macedonians has been all too frequent this spring.  Both groups are nervously watching northern Kosovo, fearing that partition there could lead to heightened ethnic conflict throughout the Balkans and beyond.  Partition could ensue not only in Macedonia but also in Bosnia and Cyprus.

Then there is Chicago.  There is strong support in Macedonia for NATO membership, which could occur at the NATO Summit May 20-21 in the windy city.  But Greece objects to Macedonia using that name, which Athens would like to reserve for itself, claiming that Skopje’s use of it signifies designs on Greek territory as well as history and culture.

Macedonia has completed all the requirements for NATO membership, which include meeting political and economic criteria as well as putting the military under civilian control.  Macedonian soldiers have served with Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, where they were embedded in fighting units with the Vermont National Guard. The American who commanded the Macedonians in Afghanistan says they were up to U.S. military standards and carried their portion of the burden well.

But Greece will not agree to NATO membership for Macedonia, or a date to begin negotiating its EU membership, unless it changes its name.  Athens has even refused to allow Macedonian NATO membership under the name used for UN membership (The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, or The FYROM), despite a 1995 agreement to do so.

This Greek resistance is creating a strong reaction in Macedonia, where the exasperated prime minister benefits politically from defying Athens by renaming the airport after Alexander the Great and putting a statue of him in downtown Skopje.

The International Court of Justice, in a resounding victory for Skopje, decided in December that Athens acted illegally in blocking membership in NATO at the last Summit.  It would be wrong for this injustice to be repeated in Chicago.

NATO and the EU are the two strong poles of attraction that keep the Balkans on the path towards a democratic and prosperous future.  In order to find the political will to proceed with difficult reforms, Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro need to see the prospect of NATO and EU membership as real.  Macedonia’s entry into NATO at Chicago and Croatia’s entry next year into the EU are the best current opportunities to demonstrate that the region’s aspirations can be fulfilled, solidifying a still fragile peace.

*Daniel Serwer, an American, and Soren Jessen-Petersen, a Dane, teach at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.  They have both worked on and in the Balkans for more than 15 years.