Nikolic starts well, now let’s have fun

Tomislav Nikolic’s inauguration as President of Serbia went well:  he pledged Serbia to a European future, committed himself to resolving regional problems through dialogue and promised future prosperity in return for hard work. He did not of course repeat his controversial remarks of recent days seeming to justify the Serb assault in the early 1990s on the Croatian town of Vukovar and his denial of genocide at the Bosnian town of Srebrenica.

He did however necessarily commit himself to

protect the Constitution, respect and safeguard the territorial integrity of Serbia and try to unite all political forces in the country in order to identify and implement a common policy on the issue of Kosovo-Metohija.

This means that he maintains Serbia’s claim to all of Kosovo, despite loss of control over 89% of its territory and more or less the same percentage of its population.  As required by the constitution, he denies the validity of the 2008 declaration of independence and recognition by 90 sovereign states.

The key question for today’s Serbia is whether and how Nikolic resolves the contradiction between his commitment to a European future for his country and his commitment to holding on to Kosovo.  No Serb politician wants to admit that this contradiction exists, but it does and they all know it. Twenty-two European Union members have recognized Kosovo’s independence.  They will be unwilling to accept Serbia into their club unless it accepts Kosovo’s sovereignty and establishes “good neighborly relations” with the democratically validated authorities in Pristina.

Belgrade has been inclined to put off any resolution of this contradiction for as long as possible.  That is understandable.  It involves a trade-off that is unappetizing:  either give up Kosovo, or give up the EU.

But the failure to make a clear choice distorts judgment on other issues important to Serbia’s future:  relationships with Russia, the United States and NATO as well as Serbia’s relationship with Kosovo’s Albanian citizens (Kosovo’s Serb citizens will presumably choose to remain Serbian citizens, though some have also accepted Kosovo citizenship).

The United States and the EU have been reluctant to press Serbia hard on its choice between the EU and Kosovo, for fear of undermining former President Boris Tadic and strengthening Nikolic’s more nationalist forces.  It might appear that there is no longer need for that reluctance with Nikolic in the presidency.  But there is a real possibility that Tadic will become prime minister and lead the first government of Nikolic’s mandate.  That would enable Serbia to renew its diplomatic manipulation of the West on the Kosovo vs. EU issue.

Nikolic in the past has been more inclined to advocate partition of Kosovo than to give up all claim to it.  This proposition won’t go anywhere.  The Americans and the Europeans are solidly against it, because it would precipitate a domino-effect of partitions in Macedonia, Bosnia, Cyprus and perhaps farther afield.   The Kosovars would ask for the Albanian-majority area of southern Serbia in trade, something Belgrade would not want to offer.  More importantly:  it is not in the interest of most Serbs who live in Kosovo (outside the northern area Serbia would hope to claim).  The Serbian church, whose important sites are all in the south, is solidly opposed.

I’ll hope that Nikolic defies the odds and gets courageous about Kosovo:  it is lost to Serbian sovereignty.  All politicians in Belgrade, including Nikolic, understand that, but no one wants to accept responsibility for it.  Some of my Serb Twitter followers and email correspondents assure me there is not a chance in hell Nikolic will:  that’s why they voted for him.  They want him to choose Kosovo over the tarnished EU.

They may well be correct, but I’ll wait to see what Nikolic does.  His first test will be implementation of the agreements already reached with Pristina.  Tadic did precious little to make them operational.  If Nikolic wants to stick his predecessor with responsibility for them, he’ll demand that they be implemented by a newly named prime minister, whether it be Tadic or someone else from his Democratic Party.

Nikolic could also change Serbia’s policy on United Nations membership for Kosovo, thus forcing Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic to preside in his new position as General Assembly president over Pristina’s acceptance into the UN. Watching that would be worth almost any admission price.

I’m not holding my breath for any of this to happen.  Just saying it would be fun.