A milestone, again

Today is Vidovdan, Saint Vitus’ Day for Serbs.  It is the 623rd anniversary of the battle of Kosovo Polje, commemorated as a religio-national holiday by Serbs worldwide.  It is also the date on which Gavrilo Princip assassinated the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914, precipitating World War I, as well as other major events in Serbian history.

Today there is one more:  newly elected nationalist Tomislav Nikolic asked nationalist Ivica Dacic, leader of Slobodan Milosevic’s Socialist party, to form a new government, with the support of Nikolic’s own Progressive party as well as several smaller parties in the governing coalition.

There is nothing socialist about Dacic or progressive about Nikolic.  Both are nationalists and pragmatists who draw support from an electorate disappointed in the performance of the more moderate nationalist Boris Tadic, who lost this month’s presidential election after more than seven years at the helm.  All claim to be pro-European, but Tadic more loudly, definitively and effectively than Nikolic and Dacic.

Alternation in power is a vital part of democratic governance.  Dacic participated as Interior Minister in Tadic’s last government, but Nikolic and his “progressives” are new to governing responsibility. It is a sign of the maturity of Serb’s still young democracy that the international community is taking Nikolic’s accession to power in stride, even if many might have preferred that Tadic win.

Both Nikolic and Dacic have already gone out of their way to consult with Moscow during the government formation process.  That gives more than a hint of where they plan to steer Serbia, which even under Tadic has flirted with Russia and vaunted itself as non-aligned (whatever that means in the post-Cold War world).

What does this augur for Washington and Brussels?  For Brussels, it likely means a deceleration in Serbia’s technical preparations for European Union membership, which proceeded apace under Tadic.  A slow-down won’t cause any handwringing in Brussels, where the prospect of any new members before 2020 is unwelcome.  The EU will want to keep Serbia on track for eventual membership, but it likely will feel far less pressure to offer a date to begin accession negotiations with a Dacic-led government.

That’s a good thing from Washington’s perspective.  Serbia continued under Tadic to monkey in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as in Kosovo in unhelpful ways.  Washington was hesitant to ask too much of Tadic, who argued that would strengthen his more nationalist competitors.  A tougher EU stance is vital to moderating Serbia’s efforts to maintain strictly separate governing structures in both Bosnia’s Republika Srpska and northern Kosovo.

The day also saw the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia throw out one charge of genocide against Bosnian Serb wartime leader Radovan Karadzic.  I hope this is seen in Bosnia and Serbia as evidence that he is getting a fair trial.

More important was the decision on Tuesday in a Serbian court finding 14 people guilty of killing civilians in late 1991, during Serb efforts to seize parts of Croatian territory and cleanse it of Croats.  As I argued at the OSCE earlier this week, acknowledgement of responsibility for wrongdoing is a key step in reconciliation.  If the new nationalist leadership in Belgrade plays it right, the Serbian courts have given them an opening to acknowledge the past and by doing so improve relations between Serbia and its neighbors in the future.