The end of Asad
The Daily Mail, admittedly not my favorite source, reports that Syrian President Bashar al Asad is in Latakia, as the Washington Post’s Liz Sly also confirmed this morning, and that his wife Asma has fled to Russia. If true, we are close to the end of the Asad regime, which is not going to be able to hold Syria from the hinterlands of its fifth largest city. Even there, the urban population is majority Sunni. Only its rural districts are majority Alawite.
But that does not mean Syria is at the end of its travails. Disorder, even chaos and sectarian war, could make what we’ve seen so far pale. Refugees are reportedly pouring across Syria’s borders. The country is broke. Its army and paramilitaries are bristling with arms and lashing out against their opponents. Rumors that the regime is about to use chemical weapons are unsettling, even if untrue. If true, the results could be catastrophic and precipitate an abrupt international military effort. The Syrian state could crumble and fragment even as its territory is divided among religious and ethnic groups.
Neither the Syrian opposition nor the international community seems well-prepared for the moment. The Syrian National Council lacks a clear vision. The Free Syrian Army, while claiming the bombing that killed the defense minister and other Asad regime luminaries, is not a single, coherent force but an agglomeration of franchisees. The UN Security Council has been unable for weeks to come up a unified reaction to the Asad regime’s blatant violations of the Annan plan, despite ample testimony from the UN observer team on the ground in Syria. Russian support for Asad has been faltering, but Moscow has been unwilling to tell him he has to step down. The Americans have offered rhetorical and covert support to the revolution but have stopped short of bucking the Russians with overt military intervention.
There are two places to watch today: New York and Damascus.
The Security Council has an opportunity to mend its rift and speak with a single voice in favor of a political transition that begins with Bashar al Asad stepping down. Sanctions should be stiffened, with a clear commitment to ending them quickly if a democratic transition is begun. The UN observers should be authorized to stay and a commitment made to increasing their number if conditions permit. The Secretariat should be asked to begin preparations for a possible peace keeping operation.
In Damascus, the issue is whether the regime will hold or implode. If it implodes, the Free Syria Army should show its mettle by restoring order quickly. They won’t be able to prevent a big celebration, but they should try to get the city back to something like normal in a day or two, without the revenge killing and sectarian cleansing that some will want to indulge in. If the regime holds in Damascus despite the odds, we are in for an unpleasant siege that could leave many thousands of Syrians dead and wounded before order is restored, who knows how.
The odds of an even remotely orderly transition in Syria are low. But best to try.
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“The Americans have offered rhetorical and covert support to the revolution but have stopped short of bucking the Russians with overt military intervention.”
They may be remembering Colin Powell’s words to Bush Jr: “You break it, you’ve bought it.” With the threat of chemical weapons that could potentially used on the Syrian population, the temptation to stay out of this may be irresistible.
Are the Russians worried more about Syria, or about the North Caucasus these days? Democracy for Muslims, especially democracy won as the result of military action, is hardly an idea they can be expected to welcome. Offering them port facilities under some international arrangement, or an agreement forced down the rebels’ throats, may not do much to win them over. Even without the Russian, there seems to be hardly any scenario that could be described as a good ending. After decades of rule by the Assads it’s hard to imagine it’s going to be anything but a mess. They just don’t have any experience in hammering out agreements. But if the national front wins it on their own, there’s no way they’re going to accept the “supervised democracy” agreed to, or imposed, in Kosovo.
Speaking of which, an Albanian paper reports that one of the complaints Russia made at the SC meeting was that Kosovo was attending the Friends of the Syrian People meetings and giving speeches. The idea that the Kosovo model might prove attractive to states emerging from civil is not something they want to get about, apparently.