Disintegration is hard to stop
Susan Yackee at Voice of America asked a few questions today about Syria. Here are my replies, which VoA published under the headline “The Syrian Regime Is Coming Apart.” That’s not quite what I said, but judge for yourself. Here is the interview in its entirety (I’ve made a few [corrections] in the transcript):
‘Losing your prime minister says something about your regime’
“The prime minister is not very important within the power structure in Syria, but when you’re losing your prime minister, it says something about your regime. What it says in this case, I’m afraid, is that the Sunni part of the regime is peeling off. Hijab is a Sunni, and the regime is dominated by Alawites. This is one more indication that sectarian conflict is coming to dominate the situation in Syria.”
‘The regime is coming apart’
“A defection of this sort encourages other defections among his friends and family. I certainly think [it] gives the impression, both inside Syria and outside, that the regime is coming apart.”
Sectarian conflict is ‘difficult to stop’
“The history of these things is that once sectarian conflict starts, it’s extremely difficult to stop. I know that many Syrians associated with the revolution don’t regard this as a sectarian conflict, and wouldn’t be happy with a sectarian conflict. But the fact is that people, when there’s violence, retreat into sectarian [and] ethnic protection, and I anticipate that will happen in Syria as it has happened in many other places.”
It’s ‘hard to picture stability returning quickly’
“The most important thing at this point is to reach out as best the revolution can to Alawites, Christians and [Druze] who are still loyal to the Assad regime because they’re frightened of what will happen to them after the fact. I think the revolution has to reach out to them and try to bring them over. At the same time, I think the international community needs to be thinking very hard about what kind of effort to stabilize Syria will be required in the future. It’s very hard for me to picture stability returning quickly to Syria unless there’s external force applied.”
Read more at Middle East Voices.
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2 thoughts on “Disintegration is hard to stop”
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It is classical for US propaganda to claim that fears of the other side are overblown and that what will happen is revenge and not motivated by more primordial motives. We saw the same regarding Croatia’s Serbs. But I would be interested to hear how mr. Serwer explains that in Homs hardly any Christians and Alawites are left and that in Qusair it was announced from the minarets that all Christians had to leave. Did he listen to the preaches of Arour and Luhaidan?
Syria’s uprising was sectarian from day 1. Its core were always the conservative Sunni and many of the opposition fighters openly dream of dominance by their kind. Many of the more Westernized supporters of the uprising are linked by familial and clan links to conservative Sunni families.
As for the prime minister. He was formerly governor of Latakia and made there the impression to be rather sympathetic to the uprising. He was more or less forced by Assad to become prime minister. This was probably meant as a gesture to the opposition but didn’t work out that way and it seems that he had been planning his departure from the moment he had been appointed prime minister.
In the Shadow of Assad’s Bombs – NYTimes.com.