peacefare.net

“Make or break” Pakistan elections

The upcoming Pakistani general elections will be a “make or break event,” Samina Ahmed said at Tuesday’s Carnegie Endowment for International Peace event on “Elections, Stability, and Security in Pakistan.”  Ahmed, project director of the South Asia program at the International Crisis Group, supported her claim with an analysis of the challenges and opportunities this election presents.  More of her thoughts on this issue can be read here, and the full International Crisis Group policy briefing on election reform in Pakistan can be read here.

Though it is not yet clear when the Pakistani elections will be called, as they could occur at the end of the normal five year term or be called early, preparations suggest these elections could be the first in Pakistan’s history when leadership passes from an elected government to the next in accordance with the constitution.  If the Pakistan Peoples Party serves its full five year term, it will be the first democratically elected government to do so in Pakistan since 1977.

Recent decades have not included the opportunity for credible elections:  a military regime was in power, previous election committees have been complicit in rigging elections, or the voter registration and identification system allowed millions of fraudulent votes.

Recent legislative changes, however, make possible a legitimate transfer of power.  Cooperation between the party in power, the Pakistan Peoples Party, and its primary opposition, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim Party (PML-N), has prevented the exploitation of political tension in order to rig elections.  The recently passed 18^th Amendment, which restores the country to a parliamentary republic by undoing some of the changes General Pervez Musharraf made to the constitution, deprives the president of the power to appoint the chief of the election committee.  Instead, a committee made up of members of the main party and its opposition decide.  The tenure of Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) members has been increased from three to five years, and the responsibilities of the chief are now shared by the rest of the commission.

In addition to changes in the ECP, the process for establishing a temporary caretaker government has changed.  The president no longer has the whole responsibility for its appointment, responsibility for which is shared with the opposition.

Technological changes also bring hope that this election will be more legitimate than previous ones.  All Pakistanis will be required to have computerized national identity cards.  These cards include security features that will make them difficult to duplicate.  All voter information will now be stored in a central location. An SMS-based system will allow Pakistanis to contact the election commission in order to confirm they are registered and find out where they must vote.

Despite the exciting opportunities this election presents for increased democracy and stability, Ahmed noted serious challenges and risks.  Though the process for establishing a caretaker government has been improved, the main party and its opposition have not yet been able to agree on a leader.  If a consensus is not reached soon, this might allow spoilers the opportunity to interfere with the electoral process.  Additionally, the reforms have not yet addressed the staff of polling locations, who have been implicated in rigging elections.  There is still need for reform of the election tribunals, infamous for their corruption and sluggish settlements.

Two potential sources of electoral interference are the military and the judiciary.  The judiciary has a history of dismissing elected government officials such as former Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani, who was removed by the Supreme Court because he did not open charges of money laundering against President Asif Ali Zardari.  The military has also intervened repeatedly in the political process.  Both institutions have pushed back against reform attempts.

Ahmed views the elections as a “make or break event,”  but the recent reforms, party cooperation and time in office of the current government already suggest some progress in Pakistan.