peacefare.net

An interesting development

This caught my eye yesterday:

Mass demonstrations broke out in more than 370 different locations across the country demanding rebel fighters to unite their ranks, have a centralised command and unified strategy to knock down the Assad regime, demonstrators also demanded the overthrow of the Assad regime.

This blurb is from the daily round-up of the Strategic Research and Communication Centre, a London-based Syrian opposition outfit.

There is nothing new about nonviolent demonstrations in Syria.  Most days see well over 100 of them.  But the armed struggle has completely overshadowed them, at least in the international press. If it bleeds, it ledes.  Boom or bust seems to be the way the foreigners see it:  if the opposition fails to take violent action, it doesn’t register on foreign eardrums.

What is interesting about this report is not only the number of different locations–I can’t remember a day with near 370 demos–but their purpose:  to urge unity on the rebel fighters (in addition to the compulsoary call for the downfall of Bashar al Asad).  This is an interesting use of the capacity for civic mobilization targeted not only on the regime but also on the opposition.

It is not unique.  In Serbia after the 1999 Kosovo war the civic resistance demonstrated repeatedly in favor of unifying the fractious (but entirely civilian) opposition, which eventually led to its victory at the polls.  But it is the first time I’ve seen it explicitly done in Syria (apologies to the civic activisits in advance if they’ve done it a dozen times previously).

This seems to me a good wicket.  The Free Syrian Army was quick to respond.  It has announced creation of the “Joint Leadership of the Military Revolutionary Councils,” which is said to include more than 80% of the rebel fighting groups.  That could enable better country-wide coordination, which is key to stretching the capacity of the Syrian regime’s security forces to respond.  Asad is fighting a counter-insurgency campaign that requires he clear, hold and build.  Taxing his forces so that they are unable to hold and build even if they succeed in clearing is critical to opposition success.

What is still missing, even if greater military coordination is achieved, is a civilian political leadership.  The basic message of the opposition is clear and unified enough:  Asad has to step aside, then we’ll negotiate a democratic transition with the remnants of the regime.  But it is not yet clear who will lead the effort and make crucial decisions.  What does stepping aside mean?  Does Bashar have to leave the country?  Who is acceptable as a negotiating partner?  Who can remain in their government jobs, who has to go?  What will be the milestones in the transition?

There are lots of people claiming to have answers to these questions.  What is needed now is the emergence of a genuine civilian leadership with enough legitimacy to decide these issues on behalf of both the civilian and the military opposition and ensure implementation of the decisions, including the prerequisite ceasefire.  I trust UN/Arab League envoy Brahimi and his small mission are looking for them, even as Asad is trying to kill them.  Let’s hope Brahimi succeeds and Asad fails.