Month: September 2012
Sham will rise again!
Time for me to ‘fess up: I was away in Atlanta over the weekend and took the opportunity of a few days with elder son and daughter-in-law to neglect to blog for three days straight. This was my longest hiatus in 22 months or so of publishing www.peacefare.net It felt good. Atlanta also looked good:
This is not bad for a town that Union forces burned to the ground 150 years ago. The “rising up” poster was for a show of the Hale Woodruff murals from Talladega College, one set of which portray the African mutiny on the Amistad, subsequent trial and return to Africa. The other set portrays the founding of the college. Both were forms of “rising up.”
Some may consider my thinking convoluted, but Atlanta’s difficult path from the defeated confederacy to its current bustling self is the kind of thing I like to keep in mind when contemplating Syria. However profound, and profoundly wrong, its current travails are, they will pass and the historical forces that made Damascus one of the world’s oldest cities (if not the oldest) will have an opportunity to reassert themselves.
Civil war is anything but civil. We are now up around 200 Syrians per day killed. Many more are being maimed and injured. Hundreds of thousands have fled. Millions are displaced. How a ruler who claims to have the best interests of his people at heart can not only watch this happen but also cause it to happen is beyond me.
But as luck would have it, my airplane reading for the trip to and from Atlanta was Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson’s Why Nations Fail. They do a great job of explaining the phenomenon. Nations fail, they say, because failure serves the exploitative interests of their rulers. There is good reason why Atlanta’s renaissance occurred only after the fall of segregation and the establishment of inclusive, integrated institutions.
Bashar al Asad and his small coterie cannot survive in the kind of open, inclusive political competition his more democratically inclined opponents want to institute. Even if they could survive, they would not be able to exploit the country to enrich themselves and enable their continuing hold on power.
These are not just personal questions, but institutional ones. The institution of slavery, like the Asad regime, served the masters well. Neither served the bulk of people well. But the bulk of the people don’t count until they unite. The Talladega murals pointedly illustrate the cooperation between blacks and whites (in particular the abolitionist American Missionary Society) both in defending the Amistad mutineers and in founding Talladega.
The problem in Syria today is not only that Bashar al Asad is using homicidal methods to try to re-establish fear in the population, but also that the opposition is fracturing. I quote it too often, but Ben Franklin’s aphorism is apt:
We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.
Damascus has a long history of coups. The victory of one or another of Syria’s many armed factions is unlikely to establish inclusive democratic institutions. When Syrians unite, Asad is finished.
Dixie rose again because it was no longer exploitative, segregated Dixie. Ash-Sham [Damascus] will rise again when it is no longer al-Asad’s Sham.
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Footnote to a footnote
Some of my readers will remember **********************************************, as well as a follow-up post on the question of how Kosovo is to be identified at international meetings in Europe when Serbia is present. I am pleased to note that Belgrade reportedly has seen the light on this one and no longer insists that the entire footnote be reproduced on Kosovo’s nameplate, but rather in documentation following the meeting.
The footnote references UN Security Council resolution 1244, which foresees a political process leading to a decision on Kosovo’s final status, as well as the International Court of Justice decision advising that Kosovo’s declaration of independence breached no international law. As these items condition Serbia’s sovereignty more than Kosovo’s, I see no particular harm in them, even if Belgrade continues to assert that the footnote distinguishes Kosovo from other sovereign states. The asterisk really belongs to Serbia*.
Kosovo is however different from other sovereign states, because it has lived under a regime of limited sovereignty imposed as a condition of its independence by the internationally supported Comprehensive Settlement Proposal (the Ahtisaari plan). An important component of the limitations is to be lifted September 10/11, when the International Civilian Office (ICO) in Kosovo terminates its work supervising the implementation of the Ahtisaari plan. This is one of those rare moments when an international mission manages to work itself out of a job, completing what it set out to do. Credit is due to Pieter Feith, the Dutch head of the ICO, who is repeating: he also completed an EU mission in Aceh, Indonesia, some years ago. I’ll be interested in seeing which mission he gets to close next.
Some of my friends think the ICO’s termination is not a good thing, since it is the one international organization in Kosovo clearly associated with the country’s independence. I, too, would rather see some of the other organizations, especially UNMIK, disappear, but that isn’t going to happen without Belgrade’s concurrence. The best that can be hoped for is that it withers away, which is pretty much what is happening.
The state-building process in Kosovo is not finished once ICO disappears and UNMIK withers. Only the formal international supervision of Ahtisaari plan implementation has reached an end. There are many other ways in which Kosovo remains without the full attributes of sovereignty. It still lacks security forces that can defend its territory. This restriction is scheduled for reevaluation in 2013. It has international prosecutors and judges in its court system. These I understand Kosovo will extend, along with the EU rule of law mission EULEX, until 2014. While my friends at KIPRED have catalogued the many ways in which Kosovo remains under international constraints, in my view a new state does well to move cautiously in claiming its sovereign powers, if only because that will enable it to attract significant support from the international community.
The day is coming though when the five EU members that have not yet recognized Pristina (even if they all I believe maintain diplomatic representation there) should drop their reluctance and accept Kosovo as sovereign and independent. Their failure to do so has prolonged Belgrade’s resistance and given some there to hope for partition, which would encourage similar moves in Bosnia and Cyprus.
The EU needs to insist that Belgrade give up its de facto domination of northern Kosovo in favor of the decentralized governance guaranteed by the Ahtissari plan. That can be done by a single EU member acting alone to block a date for Serbia’s accession talks to begin. I expect Germany will do that if necessary. But the EU would do much better to act as 27. That would be no footnote. It would deserve an ! rather than a *.
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This week’s peace picks
The dog days of summer are over as far as DC events are concerned
1. A Conversation with Rudwan Dawod on his Incarceration in The Sudan, Tuesday September 4, 2:00pm-3:30pm
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004, fifth floor conference room
Speakers: Rudwan Dawod, Tom Prichard, Michael Van Dusen
The Africa Program of the Woodrow Wilson Center would like to invite you to a presentation by Rudwan Dawod on Tuesday, September 4. Rudwan has been the facilitator for reconciliation and humanitarian projects with Sudan Sunrise since 2009, and is the project director for a reconciliation project in which Muslims from Sudan, South Sudan and the U.S. are rebuilding a Catholic Cathedral in Torit, South Sudan. In late May, Rudwan left his wife and home in Springfield, Oregon to travel to South Sudan to direct this inter-faith reconciliation project. During a lull in the project, Rudwan took a side trip to visit family in Sudan, and renew his Sudanese Passport. Concerned for the future of his country, and dedicated to peace and democracy, Rudwan attended a peaceful demonstration on July 3rd to protest the Sudanese government’s recent austerity policies, and ongoing violence in the Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile, and Darfur. Subsequently, Rudwan was arrested, beaten until unconscious, tortured, charged with terrorism, and retained in prison for 44 days. With the help of the advocacy community, the US government, and the media, Rudwan was eventually acquitted and released. Please join us to welcome Rudwan home and hear him tell his remarkable story.
Register for this event here.
2. Organizing the U.S. Government to Counter Islamist Extremism, Wednesday September 5, 12:00pm-2:00pm
Venue: Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street, N.W. 6th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20005
Speakers: James Glassman, Will Marshall, Douglas J. Feith, William A. Galston, Abram N. Shulsky
Lunch will be served. For all the progress the United States has made in fighting terrorist networks, there has been a general failure to confront the terrorism problem’s ideological center of gravity. A new Hudson Institute study examines how the U.S. government could mount an effort to address this failure by working to change the ideological climate in the Muslim world. The study identifies which types of governmental and nongovernmental organizations should be created to conduct this effort. Produced by Douglas J. Feith and Abram N. Shulsky of Hudson Institute and William A. Galston of Brookings, the study argues that the various Islamist terrorist groups around the world are linked by ideology— common beliefs about their duties as Muslims that spawn and intensify hostility to the United States and to the West in general. You are invited to a panel discussion in which two distinguished commentators will discuss the report with its authors: Commentators: James Glassman, Executive Director of the George W. Bush Institute and former Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs in the George W. Bush Administration Will Marshall, Founder and President of the Progressive Policy Institute Authors: Douglas J. Feith, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow and former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the George W. Bush Administration William A. Galston, Brookings Institution Ezra K. Zilkha Chair in Governance Studies and former Deputy Assistant to President Clinton for Domestic Policy Abram N. Shulsky, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow and former Defense Department official.
Register for this event here.
3. An Egyptian Point of View about the Arab Uprisings, Wednesday September 5, 7:30pm-9:00pm
Venue: Al-Hewar Center, 120 Cherry Street, S.E., Vienna, VA 22180
Speakers: Ashraf Al-Bayoumi
A conversation with Dr. Ashraf Al-Bayoumi. Egyptian professor and activist, about “An Egyptian Point of View about the Arab Uprisings.” (in Arabic)
Register for this event here
4. Infrastructure and Business Opportunities in North Africa, Thursday September 6, 8:30am-11:ooam
Venue: City Club of Washington, DC, 555 13th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20004
Speakers: Carl Kress, Randa Fahmy Hudome, Steven Mayo, Deborah McCarthy, Cenk Sidar, Curtis Silvers, John Duke Anthony
A discussion on “Infrastructure and Business Opportunities in North Africa” featuring Mr. Carl Kress, Regional Director for the Middle East, North Africa and Europe Region, U.S. Trade and Development Agency; Ms. Randa Fahmy Hudome, President, Fahmy Hudome International; Mr. Steven Mayo, Business Development Officer, Project and Structured Finance, Export-Import Bank of the United States; Ms. Deborah McCarthy, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Finance and Development, Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, U.S. Department of State; Mr. Cenk Sidar, Founder and Managing Director, Sidar Global Advisors; and Mr. Curtis Silvers, Executive Vice President, National U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce; moderated by Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President & CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations; Member, U.S. Department of State Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy and its subcommittees on Sanctions and Trade and Investment.
Register for this event here.
5. CISSM Forum: ‘The Future of Indo-Pak Relations,’ Thursday September 6, 12:15pm-1:3opm
Venue: University of Maryland, College Park, 7950 Baltimore Avenue, College Park, MD, 1203 Van Munching Hall
Speakers: Stephen P. Cohen
‘The Future of Indo-Pak Relations’, Stephen P. Cohen, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Register for this event here.
6. When ‘Ordinary People’ Join In: Understanding Moments of Mass Mobilization in Argentina (2001), Egypt (2011), and Ukraine (2004), Thursday September 6, 4:00pm-5:00pm
Venue: Elliot School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052, Voesar Conference Room
Speakers: Olga Onuch
Olga Onuch, Newton Prize Fellow in Comparative Politics, University of Oxford This presentation examines the differences between moments of mass-mobilization and the long term process of activist mobilization that precedes them. Ukraine in 2004, Egypt in 2011, and Argentina in 2001 represent cases where a history of activist coordination was the basis for, and key instrument in, the mobilization of ‘ordinary’ people. The presenter will argue against the predominant focus on exogenous and economic factors and instead emphasize local actors and political variables in explaining the presence or absence of mass-mobilization. Part of IERES Petrach Program on Ukraine. Sponsored by the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies.
Register for this event here.
7. The Arab Awakening and its Implications, Thursday September 6, 6:oopm-7:oopm
Venue: Georgetown School of Foreign Service, 37 St NW and O St NW, Washington, DC, ICC Auditorium
Speaker: Dennis Ross
Returning PJC faculty member, Ambassador Dennis Ross, will present a lecture on ‘The Arab Awakening and its Implications’.
RSVP requested. A light reception will follow.
Register for this event here.
8. Will the Ongoing Nuclear Talks with Iran Yield Better Results than Past Efforts? Friday September 7, 10:00am-12:00pm
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Trita Parsi, Mustafa Kibaroglu, Monica Herz, Michael Adler, Robert S. Litwak
The pursuit of an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program remains at the top of the nonproliferation agenda. The unsuccessful mediation effort led by Brazil and Turkey in May 2010 was followed by the adoption of more economic sanctions by the international community. Last April, the government of Iran resumed negotiations with representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Turkey and Germany. Four meetings have taken place in Switzerland, Turkey, and Russia. Talks are expected to continue after the U.S. presidential elections. Five experts will take stock of the negotiations in comparison with earlier efforts. Experts who participated in a February 2011 seminar on the Brazilian-Turkish mediation will return to the Wilson Center to assess the ongoing negotiations and possible outcomes.
Register for this event here.
9. Road to a Free Syria: Should “Responsibility to Protect” Apply to the Syrian Conflict? Friday, September 7, 12:00-2:00
Venue: Hudson Institute, 15 15th Street, N.W. 6th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20005
Speakers: Marah Bukai, Naser Khader, Nasser Rabbat, Kert Werthmuller
‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P)—a widely acknowledged principle of international relations—holds that the State carries the primary responsibility for the protection of its population from mass atrocities and, moreover, that the international community has a responsibility to assist States in fulfilling this responsibility. A panel of distinguished experts will discuss the applicability of R2P to the Syrian conflict while shedding light on current events inside Syria, international reactions to those events, and projections for securing a stable and prosperous post-Assad Syria. Panelists: Marah Bukai, Syrian poet, Consultant, U.S. Department of State, and political activist involved in the Syrian revolution
Naser Khader, Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute, and former Member of the Danish Parliament
Nasser Rabbat, Aga Khan Professor and the Director of the Aga Khan Program for Islamic Architecture, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Moderator: Kurt Werthmuller, Research Fellow, Hudson Institute’s Center for Religious Freedom
Register for this event here.
10. Stabilizing the Sinai, Churches for International Peace, Friday September 7, 12:00pm-1:30pm
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Art Hughes, Geoffrey Aronson
Rising lawlessness and violence and an increasing death toll in the Sinai Peninsula by terrorist and criminal elements since the fall of the Mubarak regime threaten the security of Egypt, Israel, and their 1979 peace treaty. The unresolved competition over governance in Egypt between the Muslim Brotherhood government led by President Mohammed Morsi on one hand and the Egyptian army on the other are complicating factors, as is the continued Israeli closure of Gaza, whose Hamas government has strong ties to the Egyptian Brotherhood.
Ambassador (ret.) Art Hughes and Geoffrey Aronson will discuss the stakes for all the parties, including the U.S., and suggest what is needed to restore peace in the Sinai.
Register for this event here.
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