The Federation revisited

As some readers will know, I was known during the Bosnian war as Gospodin Federacije, because I was in charge of U.S. support to the Federation that had ended the 1992-4 Bosniak/Croat war and was supposed to govern on territory controlled by the Bosnian Republic Army and the Croat Defense Force.  So when the Bosnian version of the Croatian daily Večernji list asked some questions (mildly edited here for English grammar and spelling), I replied:

1.  How would you describe current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) having in mind that there’s no stable coalition on the state or entity level and everyone is trying to remove the other party from power?

DPS:  I’d describe as you have:  no stable coalition at the state or entity level and everyone trying to get rid of everyone else.  That’s called politics in a sharply divided polity.  At least it’s peaceful.

2.  How much is BiH important to US and is it a major focus right now, and how would you coment on a more powerful engagement in this country?

DPS:  Bosnia is way down the list of U.S. priorities today.  I don’t think you can expect a more powerful U.S. engagement, unless things get really bad.  Even then I’m not certain.

3.  Is it time to shut down and relocate Office of the High Representative outside BiH and strengthen the role of Mr. Peter Sorensen and the European Union Special Representative in BiH?

DPS:  I don’t see much purpose in relocating the OHR and it is clearly premature to shut him down.  Peter Sorensen’s role is quite distinct from the OHR’s.  And it has a narrower constituency.

4.  A lot of Croat and Serb politicians reproach that U.S. administration for letting Turkey have broader political infulence in the BiH. Do You consider that approach productive or harmful?

DPS:  I think Turkey has played a very positive role in many ways in the Balkans:  peacekeeping, investment, trade, even politics.  It is their backyard and they have every reason to try to make sure it evolves in a peaceful and European direction.

5.  Many European diplomats to whom I’ve spoken consider that the Dayton experiment has shown its limits and weaknesses. Some of them told me as a matter of fact it’s failure. Would you like to take comment on that?  Is it time for radical change?

DPS:  European mouths are sometimes more active than their brains.  I’d like to see their plan for radical change before commenting on it.

6.  The Dayton political system gave key powers to three constituent national groups:   Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats. Key Croatian and Serb politicians consider that the imposition of national representatives in the previous two election cycles have caused the most serious crisis in this country. How is it possible to establish a system that would guarantee equal rights to all constituent national groups and from the other hand citizens having in mind also verdict in case Sejdic – Finci?

DPS:  My view is that equal rights should be established on an individual basis and protected by the rule of law, not by group rights protected by thuggish political leaders.  I don’t think there should be any ethnic criteria for the presidency of a country of which I am a citizen.  But the perspective among many Bosnians is different, and I respect that.

7.  How do you comment demands of the Croats in Bosnia, who are the most vulnerable ethnic group in Bosnia, for restructuring of the country in order to have equal rights with two other people. There’s always mentioning of the third entity!?

DPS:  The Croats got a very good deal at Dayton:  half the Federation and one-third of the state.  That’s because they then held a stranglehold on the Federation and Croatia’s military power was vital.  Now the military balance is irrelevant, Croatia is entering the European Union and therefore no longer a major factor inside Bosnia, and there are far fewer Croats in Bosnia than at the time of Dayton.  Why would they get a better deal now than in 1995?  If I were a nationalist Croat, I’d be cautious about reopening an agreement that was highly favorable to Croat nationalists.

8.  Do you consider that development in Catalonia would have impact on BiH, maybe some new Dodik initiative?

DPS:  No. Whatever happens in Catalonia, it is not based on the ethnic cleansing of more than half the population on its territory.

9.  The US administration is lobbying for constitutional changes in the Federation of BiH. They have in mind to change the internal organization of the Federation. What is your view on this initiative?

DPS:  I don’t understand it well enough to comment, but see my response to 7 above.

10.  What would Croatian accession to the EU mean for BiH and the region?

DPS:  I hope it will be inspiration to BiH, Macedonia, Albania, Serbia and Kosovo to get their act together, as Croatia did, and meet the criteria for membership.  At the same time, it may disrupt some trading and travel patterns and create some stresses in the rest of the Balkans.  The important thing is to recognize that all of the Balkans should soon be members, but only if they make the necessary reforms.