Tidewater here I come

Most peacefare readers know me as a foreign policy person.  I’ve worked for the United Nations, the State Department and United States Institute of Peace.  I now teach post-war reconstruction in the conflict management program of Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies.  I’ve blogged over the last two years from Sarajevo, Pristina, Baghdad, Cairo, Tripoli and Benghazi.

NPR’s “Wait Wait Don’t Tell Me” included a bit last weekend reminding me of just how boring to most people that is.  Drew Carey was guest hosting:

CAREY: The last presidential debate was supposed to be a conversation about foreign policy, but President Obama and Mitt Romney kept turning it back to the economy, jobs, and education here in the United States. Thankfully, moderator Bob Schieffer did an excellent job, steering the debate back to issues Americans couldn’t care less about like foreign policy.

(LAUGHTER)

CAREY: Seriously, when was the last time you heard someone say, “Can you turn off the game, I want to watch the foreign policy.”

(LAUGHTER)

CAREY: “Hold all my calls unless it’s about foreign policy.”  The worst is when your wife comes home early and you’re watching foreign policy.

It’s funnier if you listen to it.

Later this week I’ll be blogging from Suffolk, Virginia, where I’ll be campaigning for President Obama.  A neighbor asked me the other day why I have an Obama/Biden yard sign.  She is mostly concerned about abortion and supports women’s reproductive rights.  My own response was more multi-facted.  I prefer the President not only for that reason but for many others:  his intention to rebalance foreign and defense policy, his commitment to preserving the social safety net for the poor and elderly, his support for education and infrastructure, and his willingness to redress inequities that plague American society.  My patriotism tells me we all owe a great deal to America and should be prepared to pay back what we can.

But that isn’t necessarily going to help me in Suffolk, a town founded in the 18th century on the edge of the Great Dismal Swamp, where escaped slaves once took refuge.  Today Suffolk’s population of about 85,000 is 50% White, 42% African American and the rest Asian, Hispanic, mixed and other.  Two mainsprings of the local economy are peanut processing and the U.S. military, especially the Navy and the remnants of what used to be  Joint Forces Command, as well as military contractors and suppliers.  Median household income is over $65,000 per year.  Almost a quarter of firms are Black-owned and 30% woman-owned.  Three-quarters of the population owns its own homes, which have a median value of over $250,000.  This is an ethnically mixed, relatively prosperous place that depends on both private enterprise and the U.S. government for its livelihoods.  Money Magazine named it number 9 on its list of “where the jobs are,” due to a 43% increase (!) in employment from 2000 to 2011.

I’m anxious to hear what the citizens of Suffolk and surrounding communities have to say.  What are their main concerns?  What do they want from a president?  How do they think the Federal government can help or hinder their prosperity and well-being?  How has President Obama done in their view?  Are they supporting Obama or Romney?  What would convince them to support the President?  How can I help them make that decision, or if they’ve already made it how can I be sure they can get to the polls and vote?

My initial thinking is that many people will be concerned about the defense budget, especially for naval expenditures, and taxes, especially on the middle class.

Romney and Ryan have advocated major increases in the defense budget over the next decade, with particular emphasis on the navy.  But in FY 2013 (which began October 1), their proposal gives defense spending no more than an increase for inflation, while the administration proposes to straight-line the defense budget.  There isn’t likely going to be much difference once the Congress gets around to passing a budget.  Only in the out-years do Romney and Ryan propose increases for defense.  There are also substantial increases for defense in Obama administration plans.  All the “cuts” are from projected increases, not from current spending.

The Romney/Ryan budget proposal depends on reducing tax deductions that are likely to be important to people in Suffolk, especially the mortgage and charitable deductions.  It is unlikely that there are many salaried employees in Suffolk with household incomes over $250,000 who would see tax increases under the President’s proposals.  But there are probably quite a few small businesses in that category that file as sole proprietorships.  Their owners will not have been shy about talking to their employees about the impact of tax increases on small business.  But do those small businesses want to see infrastructure and education spending cut to the bone?  Imagine Hurricane Sandy without Federal backup for the states and local communities.

I’ll be reading the The Suffolk News-Herald for the next six days, trying to get myself into the frame of my Virginia neighbors.  It reports that Suffolk, which weathered the hurricane well, swung hard to Obama over McCain in the last election (by 13 per cent), but no one knows what will happen this time around.  Donations to Romney are running marginally ahead of Obama’s.  Virginia is still up for grabs, though Polltracker at the moment has Obama up by two percentage points and some.

The front line in this contest runs through Tidewater Virginia.  I am pleased to be heading there.

PS:  Polltracker this morning says the race is tightening in Virginia, with the President still up by a point and some.