Small war, insha’Allah
Two Middle East problems will grab President Obama’s attention now that the election is over: Syria and Iran. Both are relevant for Turkey, which might take more of Washington’s attention in the future as a military solution to the crisis in Syria becomes increasingly likely. Syria and Turkey are already at war, according to Kemal Kaya of Johns Hopkins, the main speaker at a SAIS event on Wednesday about Turkey’s policy on Syria. It may not have been officially declared, but the violence has already caused security and economic issues that will only get worse unless a solution is found.
Initially, Turkey had a political and ideological perspective on the Arab Spring. From its moderate Islamist point of view, developments in Tunisia and Egypt, and to some degree Libya, were promising. Turkey had similar hopes for Syria. As tensions increased, Turkey began to warn Syria about the consequences of its crackdown. After months of unsuccessful talks, the Syrian military shot down a Turkish aircraft, marking a turning point for Ankara. Turkey dramatically increased its assistance to the Free Syrian Army.
The shoot-down, an increase in Syrian-supported PKK violence, and the overwhelming flow of refugees from Syria contributed to changing Turkey’s perspective. Ankara became primarily concerned with the security and economic ramifications of the Syrian crisis. The border area is a particular challenge, as it houses mostly Sunni Syrian refugees among majority Alawite Turkish citizens. The camps themselves are also problematic, because of the risk of violence and the presence of spies.
Economically, this conflict has been so burdensome that the current situation is not sustainable for many more months. There are roughly 100,000 Syrian refugees in the camps and likely 100,000 to 200,000 more scattered around Turkey. The massive influx of Syrians fleeing violence has already cost Turkey $300 million. The U.S. has provided Turkey only about $6 million for refugee relief.
The cost of the refugee crisis is significant, but the real economic impacts of the Syrian violence are felt by business. Despite the European financial crisis, Turkey has been booming. But Syria was a significant market for Turkish exports. Turkey can increase some exports to Lebanon to compensate for its losses in Syria, but that is far from sufficient. To make matters worse, what Kaya calls an informal Shiite coalition led by Iran is blocking Turkish trade to the south and to Central Asia.
These security and economic burdens force Turkey to look for solutions. Ankara is seeking support for the establishment of safe zones inside Syria along the border, which would require a no-fly zone. Only the U.S. has the capacity to implement and sustain a no-fly zone on the required scale.
Kaya believes the signs point to an officially declared war, likely a small one. But the violence is already major. Escalation could be unavoidable. Small war, insha’Allah.
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