peacefare.net

Serbia and Kosovo have a unique opportunity

In less than a month, Serbian prime minister Ivica Dačić and his Kosovo counterpart Hashim Thaci have met twice in Brussels. The meetings are mediated by Baroness Catherine Ashton, the High Representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy. According to Dačić, the dialogue has been constructive. The two sides have agreed to put Integrated Border Management (IBM) of two disputed checkpoints  into effect by December 10. Even the possibility of Serbia and Kosovo jointly constructing a highway connecting Priština and Niš, a town in southeastern Serbia, has been discussed.

The ongoing round of talks between Belgrade and Priština was preceded by a few weeks of aggressive, at moments even anti-European, rhetoric on the part of Dačić and Serbian president Tomislav Nikolić, leading a number of domestic observers to assume that the new Serbian government was about to renounce the process of European integration. Now that the negotiations have resumed, the contentious statements apparently served as a tactic to pacify hardline nationalists before taking bolder steps towards normalization of the relationship with Kosovo.

This time there is more reason for optimism. The elevation of the negotiations to a higher political level raises hope that more concrete results will be achieved. Besides, without tangible improvement in its relations with Kosovo, Serbia will no doubt fail to get a date for accession talks with EU. And without the date, the government in Belgrade cannot count on money from European pre-accession funds, which it badly needs in order to put its struggling economy and public finances in order. Russia might provide a temporary lifeline, but that by no means would suffice.

It is too early to speculate on how far is Serbia prepared to go in these negotiations, except that it will not officially recognize Kosovo’s independence. But beyond the formal recognition, there is plenty of room for Belgrade to operate within. Dačić’s government is at the beginning of its term, which is an opportune moment to take on most challenging issues. As proven nationalists, Dačić and his coalition partners from the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) are generally in a more favorable position to make substantial concessions to Priština than former president Boris Tadić was.  A relatively weak opposition in parliament could also prove beneficial to the government.

Even more encouraging is the impression that Dačić has finally abandoned his idea of ethnic-based territorial partition of Kosovo. Instead, Belgrade will likely try to secure special autonomy for the Serb-dominated area north of the Ibar river, which basically comes down to some sort of “Ahtisaari plus.” Such a solution is far from ideal, not least because it would disfavor other Kosovo Serbs. But in situations like this, no solution is ideal. For that matter, Priština would do a great job if it managed to improve the safety of local Serbs from enclaves. It would help Kosovo not only refute Serbia’s accusations of deliberately failing to protect the Serb minority, but also earn credibility among countries that have not yet recognized its statehood, including the five EU members. A long history of inter-ethnic violence certainly makes things difficult for Kosovo authorities, but not impossible, provided that independent professional institutions, as well as instruments of civilian control, are strengthened.

Serbia, for its part, needs to dismantle parallel Serb institutions in four municipalities of northern Kosovo, as a sine qua non for the beginning of accession talks with EU. It will be anything but easy to do. To what extent hese parallel institutions’ activities are actually under control of the Serbian government is unclear. Theoretically, Belgrade might consider a total cutoff of financial support to the disobedient Serb leaders, but there is a danger that such an effort would be blocked by more nationalist elements within the ruling coalition. Serbia’s efforts to rein in the north could be further undermined by intra-governmental competition between Dačić and his first deputy Aleksandar Vučić for control over the security sector, which already, earlier than was expected, seems to be under way.

Meanwhile, public sentiment in Serbia has significantly changed regarding Kosovo, at least in one respect. Today, unlike a few years ago, most of the population does not count the former province even among top five political priorities. But while a majority of the Serbian people admit that Kosovo is a de facto independent state, they nonetheless insist that the government should never recognize it. A recent opinon poll, conducted by Ipsos Strategic Marketing and B92, has shown that two thirds of those surveyed would choose Kosovo over Serbia’s EU membership in a potential referendum. This attitude is obviously a result of defiance rather than rationality. Even if Serbia withdrew from European integration, Kosovo would still remain its neighbor.

Most important for Dačić’s government is that whatever it eventually decides to do about Kosovo, including even formal recognition, is unlikely to spark major protest. Oddly, people in Serbia have become largely indifferent to their government’s Kosovo policy. While obstacles to the establishment of neighborly relations still exist, they are getting both fewer and smaller going forward. After years of seemingly insolvable dispute, Serbia and Kosovo have a unique opportunity to make a huge step forward. It is now up to the two governments to do the right thing for the sake of their people’s brighter future.