Yemen isn’t working

Daniel Byman, Brookings fellow and the moderator of Tuesday’s event about “Yemen and the Fight Against a Resurgent al-Qaeda,” noted that Yemen has become increasingly important in Washington over the past decade.  Despite this, few understand Yemen.  American political leaders have not found a successful strategy to “disrupt, dismantle, and defeat” al-Qaeda in Yemen.  Ibrahim Sharqieh of Brookings Doha and Gregory Johnsen, Ph.D. candidate at Princeton, did not claim the expertise to address moral or legal questions about drone strikes, but they questioned their effectiveness in achieving U.S. objectives.

Sharqieh noted the fluctuations of U.S. interest in Yemen over the past 14 or 15 years.  Until the Yemeni people elected a new president in parallel with “Arab Spring” reformation movements across the Middle East, the U.S. cooperated with the Ali Abdullah Saleh regime.  When the al Qaeda threat was high, the U.S. gave Yemen more assistance, attention, and aid money.  When the threat was low, the Yemen issue would be replaced with other more pressing foreign concerns.  This approach makes it in Yemen’s interest to have some al Qaeda presence.  Johnsen agreed that a mutually dependent relationship has formed between new President Hadi and the U.S.  Hadi needs the U.S. because he lacks domestic support and the U.S. needs Hadi to continue its drone strikes.  Sharqieh explained that this relationship excludes the Yemeni people from the discussion of fighting al Qaeda increasing a sense of alienation.

Sharqieh proposed a new approach focused on political settlement, development and local ownership of the conflict against al Qaeda.  First, the Yemeni political transition must be successful in order to provide hope for the people and reinforce the nonviolence of the Yemeni uprising.  The Iran-backed north, separatist south and influence of the old regime are barriers to the success of the political settlement.  Second, the U.S. should adopt a sustainable assistance program to combat the serious challenges to stability:  the 46% unemployment rate, 56% of people under the poverty line, 300,000 suffering from malnutrition, and significant illegal immigration.  Third, Yemenis need to feel ownership of the al Qaeda threat.  Many resent the U.S. drone attacks as a violation of national sovereignty.

Johnsen agreed that the “Yemen Model” for fighting terrorism has not been effective.  It was on the day of President Obama’s inauguration in 2009 that Said Ali al-Shihri announced the joining of al Qaeda‘s Saudi branch with a Yemeni contingent to form al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.  In December 2009, Secretary of State Clinton added the organization to the list of known terrorist groups and the U.S. carried out its first drone attack in Yemen.  Days later al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula placed a suicide bomber on a plane to Detroit.  From the Christmas Day failed attack to today, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has grown from 200 or 300 to anywhere from 1,000 to 6,000 members.

How has the organization grown so quickly?  Civilian deaths in drone attacks are partly to blame, Johnsen believes, in addition to economic and humanitarian challenges.  The U.S. views Yemenis as terrorists and non-terrorists, but al Qaeda members in Yemen might also be tribal figures, community leaders, friends or family.  Yemen is not like Afghanistan where al Qaeda members are often easily identifiable foreigners.

“Yemen is a broken country,” Johnsen said, and the path forward for the U.S. will not be easy.  The U.S. cannot win the fight against al Qaeda alone.  Yemeni tribes and Saudi Arabia are well-positioned to help, if they want to do so.  The Obama administration has never explicitly defined for a foreign or domestic audience the moral or legal framework in which the drone strikes operate.  It is possible that the U.S. has burned all bridges that could have encouraged tribal allies to take up the fight against al Qaeda, but Washington could improve the prospects with an apology for past civilian deaths and an honest effort to find a better strategy.