Day: November 22, 2012
Pharaonic Islam
A day after cooperating with the United States in achieving a shaky ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt’s President Morsi arrogated to himself essentially absolute authority. You have to wonder: did he mention this in his several phone calls with President Obama in recent days, or in his conversations with Secretary of State Clinton? His new constitutional decrees do many things that amount to one big thing: the president is omnipotent. The courts cannot challenge him or the remaining legislative bodies (the Shura council and the constituent assembly), which are under Muslim Brotherhood domination. Morsi had already given himself the legislative powers of the lower house of Parliament, dissolved by military decree.
There is a good deal of “I told you so” tweeting back and forth in my feed. None of that matters much. The question is whether Morsi’s assumption of dictatorial powers really matters to the United States and if so what should we do about it?
We lived with an allied but autocratic Egypt for more or less 40 years, first under Anwar Sadat and later under Hosni Mubarak. The difference is that Morsi will be an Islamist autocrat, not a secularist one. And he has hijacked a revolution that appeared at least at times headed in the direction the United States would certainly have preferred: a modern, pluralist democracy. The Muslim Brotherhood from which Morsi emerged is neither modernist nor democratic (nor pluralist).
Morsi’s assumption of autocratic powers puts the Obama administration in an awkward situation. It needs Egypt not only to help with the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel but also to maintain the peace treaty with Israel and fight growing extremism on the border of Israel in the Sinai Peninsula. Trying to condition U.S. aid to Egypt on internal political liberalization could put at risk Egypt’s cooperation on international priorities concerning not just Israel but also Iran, Syria and other Middle East challenges.
Egypt however is not in a strong position. On economic questions, it has been falling into line with International Monetary Fund and World Bank requirements, because it needs their money to survive the economic downturn that has accompanied the revolution and is likely to persist for some time, especially in light of Europe’s recession. Aid does not flow readily from international financial institutions without American support.
Washington should use what leverage it has to push Morsi in the right direction, in particular in formulating Egypt’s new constitution. This is the vital issue: if it protects individual rights, including for women and minorities, there is some hope that the “spirit” of Egypt’s revolution (as understood by the youthful secularists who precipitated it) can be preserved, if only through painstaking efforts in court. If however the constitution installs Sharia and provides only limited opportunities for individuals to protect their rights through the courts, we are in for a long, dark period of Pharaonic Islam. That won’t be good for the United States, Israel or Egypt’s own people.
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Wisdom, not resolve
I’m in Atlanta this week for Thanksgiving, which Americans will mark tomorrow with parades, running races, a giant meal, lots of football (watching and playing) and much debate on the issues of our day, from cranberry sauce recipes to the state of world affairs. Some will go to church, but most will mark the day entirely at home–or in a relative’s home–with marathon culinary preparations, a lengthy and leisurely afternoon meal and a long denouement of talk, napping and TV, in my family followed in the late evening by a giant turkey sandwich, on white toast.
I mention these things because close to 50% of my readers are non-Americans, only some of whom will have enjoyed the Thanksgiving experience first hand. To my knowledge, the holiday is entirely a New World phenomenon. Canada has its own version, celebrated last month. Of course lots of cultures express thanks in both religious and non-religious ways, but I wonder if any have made it quite the major event that the North Americans have. Readers should feel free to enlighten me.
Americans certainly have a great deal to be thankful for. We are slowly climbing out of a lingering recession, we’ve gotten through the difficult quadrennial drama of presidential elections without the uncertainties that have sometimes plagued the process, our troops are out of Iraq and moving out of Afghanistan, and there is no existential threat on the horizon, even if there are many less dramatic challenges. We are the solution to our own worst problems, which focus on the relatively mundane questions of what the government should spend money on and where it should find the revenue needed.
The world is not in such good shape. While statistics show that the overall frequency of war is down, the catalogue is full of long lasting conflicts and their devastating impacts on people: the revolution and civil war in Syria are getting on to marking two years, Israel and Palestine have been in conflict one way or another for 65 years, the Afghanistan/Pakistan war is dragging into its 12th year, and I don’t know how to determine when the war against al Qaeda in Yemen, the war against its affiliates in Somalia or the war in Eastern Congo began. Then there are the more recent conflicts: northern Mali and the all but defeated revolution in Bahrain. And there are the wars that might come: perhaps against Iran, in the South or East China Seas, on the Korean peninsula or between South Sudan and Sudan.
I can’t claim that most Americans will be thinking about these disasters as they give thanks for their own blessings. They are more likely to be thinking about Breezy Point and Hoboken, two communities that hurricane Sandy devastated early this month. We’ve still got tens of thousands homeless and some without power weeks later. Those who turn to America for help–and many do–are going to find us preoccupied these days with our own needs. I suspect this will not be just a short-term phenomenon, but a longer-term effort to put our own house in order, limiting commitments abroad and prioritizing them in accordance with America’s own interests.
This will sound ungenerous to non-Americans, who may bemoan American interference but also look to the U.S. to step in to help stop the Gaza fighting and turn to Washington when other disasters strike. We will continue to do what we can where vital American interests are at stake, but it will be healthy if we are a bit less committed and rely on others rather more than we have in the past. Our withdrawal–retrenchment is what some call it–will not be absolute. It has to be calculated and calibrated. Good judgment, not ideology, should be its guide.
That is one of the many reasons I am grateful to the American people for re-electing President Obama. I don’t always agree with his judgment–I’d rather he did more on Syria, for example–but he is thoughtful and cautious in ways that fit our current circumstances. Managing the relative decline in American power and constructing a global architecture that will limit conflict and provide space for those who choose to live in free societies to prosper are the great challenges of the coming generations. Wisdom, not resolve, is the essential ingredient to meet them.
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