Day: November 29, 2012
Sins venal and cardinal
The Republican effort to block UN Ambassador Susan Rice from becoming Secretary of State is unseemly at best. Not because Susan is without fault. She should not have uncritically used talking points from the intelligence community–does she not remember what those jokers did to embarrass Secretary of State Powell with talking points about biological weapons in Iraq? And she should have known better than to put forward a narrative about the Benghazi attack that lacked verisimilitude. A simple statement that we were still investigating what happened and would report to the American people as soon as we reached definitive conclusions would have sufficed, even in the heat of the election campaign.
The truth is there are still uncertainties. How many attackers were there and what weapons did they use? Why were at least some of the consulate guard force unarmed? Was it wise for the Ambassador to go to the safe haven? Why did he leave it? How did he get separated from his security detail? We won’t likely have a complete picture until the Accountability Review Board reports, if then.
But Susan’s sins were venal, soon forgotten if not forgiven in the rush of Washington events. Anyone with serious responsibilities will make a few of these boo-boos per week. The Senate Republicans are committing cardinal sins: not by trying to block a nominee, but by doing it for blatant political advantage (gluttony, greed, wrath, envy).
They want John Kerry to become Secretary of State, so they get another crack at a Massachusetts Senate seat. They could be in for a nasty surprise there: Elizabeth Warren beat Scott Brown by 8 percentage points. But the Democrats will not want to take the risk. They may well think Chuck Hagel or Jon Huntsman, either of whom would make a good Secretary of State. President Obama would enjoy nominating someone Republicans think of as a RINO (Republican in name only). They won’t be able to oppose him. The two I’ve mentioned are all too clearly qualified, and former senators to boot. Honor among you-know-whats.
The irony is that today Susan Rice will like suffer a defeat today at the United Nations General Assembly, which will confer on Palestine the status of non-member state (like the Vatican). Unless there are last-minute changes that allow the United States and Israel to vote in favor, it will pass easily over their objections. Few in Congress will criticize her for this. So long as we do what Israel wants, there is no domestic political risk.
But the foreign policy merits of the case, depending on the specific wording, may well point in the direction of abstention or even a vote in favor. General Assembly resolutions are like preseason football games. They may be well played, but they don’t count in the standings. Palestine doesn’t become a state because of a General Assembly vote. It is already recognized as such by about 130 countries, which is good enough reason for the United States to hesitate to allow itself a defeat on Palestine becoming a non-member state. Without a positive recommendation by the Security Council, it cannot become a UNGA member, which is the gold token of sovereignty. And Palestine, though in some ways a state, lacks a vital attribute of sovereignty: fixed borders and a monopoly over the legitimate means of violence.
Be that as it may, I prefer to remember Susan not for today’s defeat but rather for her yeoman efforts and real success in gaining UNSC approval for protection of civilians in Libya and for sanctions on Iran and Syria. Those were real diplomatic achievements. It is a cardinal sin to forget them.
PS: I admit Jon Stewart said some of this better, though he missed the part about John Kerry:
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Justice still doesn’t always mean convictions
The International Criminal Tribunal for Yugoslavia (ICTY) acquittal today of Ramush Haradinaj and Idriz Balaj has elicited the expected reactions in Serbia and Kosovo. The Kosovars are celebrating while the Serbs denounce the ruling.
My own reaction, at least until I have a chance to read the decision, is the same as the one I had a couple of weeks ago, when an ICTY appeals panel found two Croatian generals not guilty: justice does not always mean convictions. All neutral observers I know think the prosecutor in Haradinaj/Balaj case simply failed to meet the burden of proof. Why that was the case is not so clear, but it left the court with little choice. “Not guilty” does not exonerate. It only finds that adequate evidence was not presented to prove the case.
That is not how Serbs and Albanians view court verdicts. Serbs see this and the previous acquittal as demonstrating ICTY bias against Serbs. Albanians view the verdict as validation of the war conducted by the Kosovo Liberation Army against Belgrade’s security forces. Both are wrong. The court did not consider the general question of justification for the armed uprising in the late 1990s. It considered the specific allegations against two specific people, both of whom unquestionably committed acts of armed rebellion that violated Yugoslav law of the time.
I have a little personal experience with Ramush, who came to see me without publicity repeatedly after the war, when he had already laid down his arms and was beginning his political career. He pursued that with vigor until he was indicted the first time in 2005, when he resigned from the prime ministry and went to The Hague. I also visited him in2001 in Gllogjane/Glodane, the village where his family reigns supreme. He took me to the graves of his two brothers killed in the war and described to me in some detail the fighting he was involved in against Yugoslav security forces. He did not–but who would?–admit to any violence against Serb civilians. He also denied that his family was involved in any way in the fighting in 2001 in Macedonia. That, I believe, was untrue.
Ramush will now return to Kosovo, where it is widely expected that Prime Minister Thaci will try to restore his uncertain majority in Parliament by bringing Ramush’s party into the government. Ramush may extract a substantial price for his support. This could complicate the ongoing political-level talks between Pristina and Belgrade, which have seen a couple of business-like, but as yet unproductive, meetings. Unafraid of being criticized for being soft on Serbs, Ramush is likely to take a pragmatic approach to relations with Belgrade. But Belgrade’s politicians will find it harder to meet with him than with Thaci, whose war-time role was primarily political rather than military.
Proving things in court more than ten years after the fact is not easy. I don’t know if Ramush committed the acts he was accused of or not. If someone in Belgrade has stronger evidence than the prosecutor presented, they should have made it available. I do know that an orderly and deliberative court using modern methods and procedures has found him not guilty. You may not like the outcome, but little purpose is served by denouncing the court. Justice still doesn’t always mean convictions.
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Good news, and bad
As world leaders meet in Doha for the climate change conference, IEA officials presented the World Energy Outlook 2012 at a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace event. Jessica Matthews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, labelled the year “paradoxical.” Some of the fundamental facts of world energy are changing, especially in the United States, which is on track to becoming the largest oil producer in 2020, passing even Saudi Arabia. This development, brought on by the unconventional oil and gas revolution, in combination with recent improvements in efficiency, suggests a bright energy future for the U.S. But Matthews reminded the audience that the Outlook ultimately concludes the U.S. and the rest of the world are not on track for a sustainable energy future. If trends continue, the world will become 3 degrees Celsius warmer by mid century and 4-6 degrees Celsius warmer by 2100. Such warming will have catastrophic implications.
Daniel Poneman, the Deputy Secretary of Energy, seconded Matthews’ point that more oil and gas in the U.S., and in turn, more independence, is a result of higher production and decreased demand. Production of shale gas began slowly, but it now accounts for about 35% of annual gas production. If trends continue, the US will overtake Russia in 2015 as the largest natural gas producer. Increasing natural gas production in the U.S., Canada, and Australia will globalize the natural gas market, according Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and overseer of the World Energy Outlook. New producers will diversify the market and traditional gas exporters will face lower exports and prices.
At the same time, energy consumption is shifting from the West to the East. By 2035, OECD countries will use only about 30% of total energy production. Ninety percent of oil from the Middle East will go to Asia. This is partially due to rising standards of living in China, India, and the Middle East. About 20% of the global population (1.3 billion people) still have no access to electricity, however. Birol calls this an energy, economic and moral issue. Despite electricity generation growth in India, electricity consumption per capita in 2035 India will equal per capita consumption in 1947 America.
Iraq is another game changer. Right now it is the third largest oil producer. Its production is expected to increase as exploration discovers greater reserves. Iraq will produce 6 million barrels per day in 2020 and 8 million by 2035, noted Maria van der Hoeven, the IEA’s Executive Director. Iraq will account for 45% of growth in global oil production from now until 2035, passing Russia and becoming the second largest oil exporter in the mid 2030’s. By 2035 almost 50% of world oil production will come from OPEC countries. Iraq will be a significant contributor, with much of its oil going to China. Thirty percent of growth in Iraq’s oil exports will come from Chinese-owned oil fields in Iraq.
The prospects for climate change are sobering. Progress has been made on energy efficiency, but energy demand is growing due to many factors, including population increase and movement away from nuclear power in some countries. Fossil fuel subsidies, which Birol calls the greatest threat to climate change, are a serious problem. Fuel subsidies are up 30% to $523 billion in 2011, with the Middle East and North Africa in the lead.
According to Birol, the global goal of a 2 degree Celsius rise in temperature or less will not be met with current policies. For the first time a decline in renewables is expected in 2012. Much of past and future renewable growth is dependent on subsidies. If it were possible to halt building of new infrastructure for the next 20 years, we would still use up 80% of the emissions permitted to keep the global temperature change under 2 degrees Celsius. We are not remotely doing all we can to improve efficiency. Two-thirds of the economically viable potential for improving efficiency is not being used. We have until 2017 to make serious changes, which will likely require a legally binding international agreement. If we don’t make changes by then, there will be no way to keep the planet from warming two degrees Celsius or more. If we become more efficient now, we might have until 2022 to make serious changes. The longer we wait, the more costly changes will be, which will make striking an international agreement harder.
The Outlook forecasts good news on energy production, but still bad news for climate change.
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