Hanging tough

Egyptian President Morsi’s speech this afternoon was profoundly uncompromising.  He denounced what he sees as opposition-inspired violence, suggested it was bought and paid for (possibly by foreign sources) and underlined the need for law and order, sine qua non.

This is an appeal a lot of Egyptians will like, even if it will infuriate the demonstrators at the presidential palace.  His only concession was a call for a “national dialogue” meeting on Saturday. But he did not, as some hoped, postpone the constitutional referendum scheduled for December 15.  Nor did he offer any changes to its profoundly ambiguous contents, which protect the military’s prerogatives better than the citizens’ rights.

His television address sounded to me more like Bashar al Assad than like Hosni Mubarak.  Morsi claims he expresses the will of the Egyptian people, something Mubarak did not care much about.  What’s more, Morsi may be right.  There are lots of Egyptians fed up with disorder.  His opposition will be hard put to mount a successful “no” vote at the polls.

But even if they do, Morsi made it clear he intends to proceed by appointing another constituent assembly.  He is in no mood to compromise with those who want to limit his power or his stay in office.  Those who thought he might be pushed aside or resign–or even allow reconsideration of the draft constitution–were badly mistaken.  Morsi is holding on to power with both hands.

The secular opposition now has a difficult choice:  go to the polls, despite the likelihood that the new constitution will be approved, or boycott, which will ensure that it is approved.  My bet is some will do the former and others the latter, ensuring not only passage of the referendum but also a small measure of democratic legitimacy.

It is unlikely much will come of Saturday’s national dialogue meeting.  It is too close to the date of the referendum to initiate any changes in the current draft.  And the opposition is too fragmented to come into the meeting united behind a small but significant set of requested changes.  Only if they do so will they have any significant impact.

Morsi is trying to impose his own order on what has been a chaotic revolution governed by Calvinball (a game never played with the same rules twice, as Marc Lynch has taught us).  My guess is that he has the support of the “party of couch,” the Egyptians who want law and order and don’t want to join the demonstrations.  He will likely also get the judiciary back on side, as he has promised that the extraordinary powers to block judicial decisions he arrogated to himself will expire once the referendum is held.

The net result is unlikely to look like a democracy two years from now, even if it allows more freedom of speech and association than Mubarak permitted.  The opaque, forced-march process that Morsi imposed to get the new constitution completed is not the kind of transparent, participatory process that makes for stable democracy, even if it is approved in a referendum.  The most important of the Arab uprisings looks as if it will end considerably short of the ideals that inspired it.  Many revolutions do.