The Syrian grassroots need watering

Even the Russian deputy foreign minister seems now to be anticipating the fall of Bashar al Asad, and the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces is gaining international recognition.  But national transition planning is still rudimentary, even though many communities have already been liberated.  What do transition efforts look like on the local level?  This was the question tackled in Tuesday’s event at the New America Foundation.  Mohammed Ghanem, Syrian American Council senior political adviser, and Ilhan Tanir of Turkish Newspaper Vatan, described emerging local governance and civil society in their recent visits to Syria.

Syria is in a crisis that would overwhelm any city official, but local councils so far appear to be relatively adept at coming up with solutions.  The Associated Press reports that roughly two million Syrians are displaced in the country and more than half a million refugees have fled to neighboring countries.  Violence continues’ bringing the death toll to about 40,000 over 21 months of violence.  The economy has been devastated.  In August 2010 one US Dollar was equivalent to about 47 Syrian Pounds.  Today that number has risen to at least 71 Syrian Pounds.

In “liberated” areas all over the country, civilians have joined together to form local councils to address these problems and the other daily issues facing Syrians:  lack of cooking oil, trash on the streets and security, for example.  Tanir noted that the local councils are particularly impressive because they lack experience.  Under Asad, government was highly centralized and average citizens were not accustomed to any sort of political organizing.

Ghanem described the Aleppo Revolutionary Transitional Council, a local council that sees itself as a model for other cities.  The city elected a 32-member board, which established 12 different committees.  Ghanem estimates that about 80% of those fighting the Asad regime in the Aleppo area coalesced into the council.  The council has emphasized that it is an interim project that will need to be re-worked when a new national government forms.  For now, the council has had some success coordinating with other elements of the opposition.  Civilians and the military cooperate and compete to provide services.  Ghanem also argued that local councils are well-represented in the National Coalition, but he did not discuss the rocky start to that relationship.

The main problem facing the transitional council is lack of funding.  The council’s committee on security wanted to form a civilian police force to do the daily work of ensuring safety in Aleppo, leaving the Free Syrian Army to fight on the front.   A leader was appointed to organize the new force, but he had no money for uniforms, much less salaries.  The council also wanted to restore the court system to provide due process for those captured fighting for the Asad regime, but they lacked the resources to make the necessary changes.  Funding and support are essential to the council’s legitimacy.  If they cannot provide services to the people, they will not be seen as legitimate leaders.

The Free Syrian Army faces a similar problem.  About every 15 to 20 days it receives enough supplies for one day of fighting.  This level of support is enough to perpetuate the stalemate and keep the opposition in the war, Tanir argued, but it is not enough to allow the Free Syrian Army to win.

Are the local councils meeting the international community’s request for representative leadership?  Tanir noted that there are no women on any of the local councils because of a lack of safety for women and conservative beliefs.  Ghanem pointed out that women do have important roles in the National Coalition, however.  Sectarian divisions are also apparent, with local councils dominated by the area’s majority sect.  Ghanem expects the councils will become more open as violence in the country decreases.  There are already positive examples of inter-sectarian conflict resolution.  Ghanem described the Aleppo transitional council’s effort to reach out to Armenian Christians to lay the groundwork for a good relationship in a post-Asad Syria.

The local councils represent an important transition effort in Syria, but the risk that they will collapse due to a lack of resources is troubling.