Montenegro will need to do more

This is an interview I did for Samir Kajošević of the Montenegrin daily Vijesti more than two weeks ago.  My English version may be a bit out of sync with the Montenegrin version, but I am hoping the content is identical.  They published it Thursday under the headline “Brussels will expect more and more from Montenegro”:

The Montenegrin government must show willingness to deal with organized crime and corruption, because Brussels will insist on that issue more and more during the negotiations, said professor Daniel Serwer from Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins School.

“It will have to show willingness to deal with organized crime and corruption if it wants to make progress in the EU negotiations. Brussels has become much more exigent in insisting on rule of law as one of the first chapters to be opened,” says Serwer.

Q:  How could Brussels  affect Montenegro’s willingness to deal with organized crime and corruption? Is it possible that the EU can stop the process of negotiations if there are no “big trials”?

A:  I don’t think Brussels has in mind a particular size or number of trials. The question is whether there is a concerted and effective effort against organized crime and corruption. Brussels will know it when it sees it, whether the trials are few or many, big or small. You will know it too, because there will be a lot to report on.

Q:  How could internal problems in EU affect Montenegro’s integration process? Can Brussels afford to slow that process, because Montenegro is the only country in region which is in negotiations?

A:  The EU is clearly suffering many fatigues: enlargement fatigue, euro fatigue, unemployment fatigue , immigration fatigue … But Montenegro is not a big pill for Europe to swallow. The important thing is to qualify for membership in every way and be ready when the political door opens. That won’t happen right away, but I do think it will happen. You would not want to miss the opportunity when it arises.

Q:  How do you comment the fact that the Milo Đukanović party is constantly ruling in Montenegro for two decades? Such situations are not characteristic of democratic regimes.

A:  It is unusual but not unheard of. There are other democratic regimes in which a single party has ruled for longer: Japan is one. Djukanovic is in power because he has the votes. I don’t really see anything wrong with that. The problem is with the opposition: why has it been unable to gain significant ground?

Q:  After retiring in 2010, Đukanović again returned as a prime minister. What do you think are the main reasons of his return:  fear of loosing power or stopping of reforms?

A:  I haven’t seen him in recent years, so I really can’t say. There are precious few politicians who want to leave power, and even fewer who do it for two years, then return. If he came back to stop reforms, he did it at the wrong time: both NATO and the EU will insist on reforms.

Q:  Soon as Đukanovic came back as prime minister this November, higher US officials sent a message that he is one of the main political figures in the Balkans. Why is Đukanovic so important to Washington despite charges of his criminal history and lack of democracy?

A:  As prime minister of a Balkans country that helped in the fight against Milosevic and has embarked on what are taken here as serious efforts to join the EU and NATO, he will get some respect in Washington. As for criminality, I would be the first to denounce corruption or organized crime.

But I don’t accuse people who have not been formally charged, much less tried and convicted. The assumption of innocence needs to apply. If you have evidence to the contrary, best to publish it or provide it to the courts. More than one Balkans prime minister has landed in difficulty because of courageous journalists and courts , but you have to get the facts straight and provide evidence to support them.

Q:  Part of the Montenegrin public claims that he is back to make Montenegro a part of a NATO. What do you think?

A:  I hope it is true. Montenegro belongs in NATO, which will welcome it and benefit from its membership, as will Montenegro.

Q:  Is he capable to do that, after his businesses connections with Russian tycoons such as Oleg Deripaska?

A:  NATO is mainly concerned with the institutions of the state, not the business connections of its leaders. And Russia is no longer the enemy it once was. You may know much more than I do about his business connections. If you have evidence of wrong doing , publish it or give it to the courts. Innuendo is not what I would regard as good journalism.

Q:  In Montenegro there are still fears of Serbian influence in domestic politics. Regarding their problems with Kosovo and internal affairs, is Belgrade capable to influence in the neighborhood countries or is it just a “ghost from the past”?

A:  Serbia is still an important country in the region: geographically central, in population and economy relatively big, well-connected in the world, cosmopolitan and culturally important. Not everyone in the region wins so many tennis games. It does not dominate the region as it once did, but its neighbors, especially Kosovo, can’t ignore it. Nor can Montenegro.