Another step forward

On January 17, the fourth round of talks on normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo was held in Brussels. Maja Kocijančić, the spokesperson for EU High Representative Catherine Ashton, who mediates in the dialogue, told media that the meeting lasted about five hours and was constructive.

The main focus was on how to distribute the customs revenue collected at recently established border checkpoints. The sides agreed that the money should be used for development projects in majority-Serb municipalities in northern Kosovo. Kosovo Prime minister Hashim Thaci said it would be done through a fund managed jointly by Priština, a Serb representative from the north and the EU.

The issue of parallel Serb institutions in northern Kosovo also was discussed for the first time as an official topic. While no conclusive agreement has been made, there are some grounds for optimism. Ivica Dačić, Serbian prime minister, said that whatever solution will be found in the end, it must be acceptable both to the Serbs and Priština. His Kosovo colleague, Hashim Thaci, announced that once the illegal institutions in the north are dissolved, local Serbs will choose their legitimate representatives in elections organized by Priština.

Perhaps more interesting is what the two prime ministers told media before the meeting. Thaci stated that the dialogue should result in Kosovo getting a seat in the UN. Dačić replied that everything can be discussed, provided that Priština is willing to make certain concessions in return. The response enraged hard-line nationalists in Serbia, and the opposition Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), the only openly anti-EU force in Parliament, immediately demanded that Dačić resign because of „treason“.

Similar was the reaction of Kosovo „Self-determination“ movement to Thaci’s announcement that customs revenue would be invested in development of Serb-dominated northern Kosovo municipalities, as they accused the prime minister of unconstitutionally giving „special autonomy“ to the north.

But something more worrying took place in Priština just a few hours after the meeting in Brussels was concluded. Three explosions burst almost concurrently at different locations, destroying three government-owned vehicles. A heretofore unheard-of organization called „Dissatisfield“ has claimed responsibility for the incident. In a message to newspaper „Express“, the group said it was a warning to the government, which they believe is „giving northern Kosovo over“.

So, what can be inferred from this available information? That the two prime misters have made another step forward in negotiations, as they did in each of the previous rounds. After Serbia’s – or, rather, President Nikolić’s – much criticized platform for Kosovo, it may be regarded as a somewhat unexpected achievement. At the same time, negative – at times even excessive – reactions from radical elements on both sides, who seek to thwart any effort at normalization between the countries, are indicative of how big the pressure is that the negotiators have to withstand. That is something that both western partners and domestic observers should be aware of when evaluating the results.

The next round of the dialogue is planned for the second half of February.  There is a lot of speculation, mostly in the yellow press, that premature elections could be held in Serbia this year. The speculators believe Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić will try to capitalize on his growing popularity as the leader of anti-corruption campaign to win a larger share of power for him and his Serbian Progressive Party.  I hope Vučić will wait at least until Dačić and Thaci accomplish what they have begun.

P.S: I’ve learned that Sunday, in the early morning, Serbian Gendarmerie removed the monument in the south Serbian town of Preševo, which the local Albanian-majority government recently put up in honor of fallen combatants from the former Liberation Army of Preševo, Bujanovac and Medveđa (LAPBM). The action was swift and went without incidents.  The Kosovo government has condemned the move, but also called on the local Albanians not to react to the provocation, warning that such behavior by Belgrade is putting the dialogue at risk.

I don’t know what in Serbia’s legislation might have served as the legal foundation for the government to remove the monument, but I do know that Serbia has formally amnestied members of LAPBM as far back as 2002, recognizing them as a legitimate party in the peace negotiations at the time. But although this could affect the further course of the negotiations to some degree, it is very unlikely to terminate the process completely.