peacefare.net

Some good news

There is good news this morning:  French forces in Mali have taken the northern town of Kidal, donors have pledged over $450 million for Mali and $1.2 billion for Syria.  These are not small things, but they are not the end of the story either.

In Mali, there is now the question of Azawad, the largely desert area northwest of Kidal where Tuareg live.  They have been seeking independence–it was their rebellion that touched off the Islamist insurgency that in turn precipitated the French intervention.  The Islamists have not fought the French advance.  Instead they have retreated northward.  The question now is whether the Tuareg will help the French do them in, or at least expel them from Mali.  France is already calling for the Mali government to talk with the Tuareg, hoping of course to keep them on side even if independence is out of the question.

A second important issue is deployment of African troops under UN command to Mali.  The UN Security Council has already approved a mission, but organizing it, financing it and deploying it will be a big challenge.  The French will presumably take the lead in trying to make this happen, as they would like out before anyone discovers that their troops might be an easy target.  The Mali government and Tuareg insurgents are likely to want to keep the French in, each hoping that they will gain advantage in a negotiation over the north that is not likely to go smoothly.

In Syria, the gigantic pledges at yesterday’s donors’ conference in Kuwait are at least a sign that the world is appalled at what is happening, but humanitarian assistance is really not an adequate response to Bashar al Asad’s homicidal behavior.  The head of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, Moaz al Khatib, is offering to meet the Syrian regime in various Middle Eastern capitals.  That is an offer unlikely to be taken up.  UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi is thought to be close to giving up on the search for a political solution, as Kofi Annan did before him.

What is needed in Syria is the kind of decisive move that France took in Mali.  The trouble is no one has come up with what that might be.  Boots on the ground aren’t going to happen.  A no-fly zone might be a big help to the rebels, but President Obama is showing no appetite for it, fearing the Russians would retaliate by denying him support for the Northern Distribution Network for Afghanistan and the P5+1 nuclear talks with Iran.  The Israelis yesterday reportedly attacked a convoy in Syria most likely thought to consist of missiles headed for delivery to Hizbollah in Lebanon.  That kind of pinprick from that source is not going to make a difference.

Unequivocal support for a new government in Syria, appointed by the National Coalition, is about the best proposition out there these days.  It will guarantee nothing, but at least it would signal determination to make the inevitable happen:  the fall of Bashar al Asad.