Day: February 11, 2013
Correcting the record
David Kanin, with whom I share a longstanding interest in the Balkans and service in the US government as well as the privilege of teaching at the Johns Hopkins School of International Study, writes:
In an interview with me published over the past couple of days, the Serbian daily Politika claimed I said Kosova was “taken illegally” from Serbia. I did not say this and do not believe it to be the case. In my view, Serbia lost its former province through its own mismanagement in the 1990s, and because Milosevic miscalculated NATO’s willingness to use force in 1999. Serbia lost Kosova the old fashioned way–on the battlefield. Legality had nothing to do with it.
For all our commonalities, David and I have often differed on the Balkans. I agree with him that Kosovo was not taken away illegally and that Milosevic’s mismanagement and miscalculation were important aspects of the story.
But I would not describe the loss of Kosovo as a loss only on the battlefield. There is nothing “old fashioned” about a group of foreigners intervening militarily to protect a population and then working closely with them for the better part of a decade to prepare them for self-governance and eventually independence.
More importantly, I share with David a desire to be quoted and cited correctly. I am acutely aware of the ease with which the Balkans media–of all ethnicities–bends what we say in their preferred direction. I talked recently with a Kosovar who thought–on the basis of an article by my friends at Koha Ditore, that I had suggested Herzeg-Bosna (the Croat war-time parastate in Bosnia) as a model for northern Kosovo. In fact, what I had suggested was the dissolution of Herzeg-Bosna as a model for the dissolution of the Serbian structures in northern Kosovo.
Of course mistakes will happen, especially when there are language and cultural barriers to clear communication. But I hope David’s complaint–and mine–are taken as a signal to the Balkans press to take care in citing the foreigners who still follow events in your not quite settled corner of the globe. We are only asking that our views be accurately presented.
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Peace Picks: February 11-15
Mid-winter is a good time to be indoors with the policy wonks:
1. Elections and Politics in North Africa—A Panel Discussion
Date and Time: February 11 / 12:00pm – 2:00pm
Address: Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052
Lindner Family Commons
Speakers: Ellen Lust, Lindsay Benstead, Matthew Buehler, Marc Lynch
Description: Three leading political scientists will discuss elections in Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt.
Register for this event here: https://docs.google.com/a/aucegypt.edu/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dGRVSlNPbG1QNUtfX3djYzg4cW9reXc6MQ
2. The Role of Azerbaijan’s Post-Conflict Narrative in Limiting Refugees’ and IDPs’ Integration into Mainstream Society
Date and Time: February 11 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm
Address: Woodrow Wilson Center
1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speaker: Jennifer S. Wistrand
Description: Nagorno Karabakh is often referred to as one of the former Soviet Union’s “frozen conflicts” with little explanation of how the conflict “froze” or might “thaw.” Jennifer S. Wistrand, Title VIII-Supported Research Scholar, Kennan Institute draws upon twenty-two months of ethnographic fieldwork conducted in Azerbaijan, shedding light on some of the socio-cultural factors impeding both the peaceful resolution of the status of the region on a geopolitical level and the “successful” integration of Azerbaijan’s refugees and IDPs into mainstream society. Particular attention will be paid to the long-term socio-economic and mental health consequences of not resolving the status quo, especially for refugee and IDP youth.
Register for this event here: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-role-azerbaijan’s-post-conflict-national-narrative-limiting-refugees’-and-idps’
3. Training for War and Fragile Peace
Date and Time: February 12 / 2:00pm – 3:30pm
Address: Reserve Officers Association
1 Constitution Ave NE Washington, DC
Speakers: Bob Feidler, Paul Hughes, Ferdinand Irizarry II, Lauren Van Metre
Description: With the U.S. Army taking on an advising and mentoring role in Afghanistan as Afghan security forces take the lead, U.S. troops are taking on fundamentally different missions than those for which they were trained. How can we best prepare the military for these operations in fragile states? Should the military do security force assistance differently in fragile states as opposed to developing states? Please join the Reserve Officers Association and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) for a program that will explore new education and training approaches used to help U.S. troops better prepare for these complex operating environments. Brigadier General Ferdinand Irizarry II, deputy commanding general of the U.S. Army’s John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School, will provide an inside look into how the military is adapting their training to prepare for the new mission in places like Afghanistan. Dr. Lauren Van Metre, dean of students in USIP’s Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, will discuss USIP’s efforts to help the military address these challenges. Having recently been called on to work with a unit of the 101st Airborne that will deploy to Afghanistan to develop a specialized education program, Dr. Van Metre will talk about programs with the military, which emphasize USIP’s conflict management work at the community level with an in-depth understanding of the local Afghan context.
Register for this event here: http://www.usip.org/events/training-war-and-fragile-peace
4. Deterring Hezbollah: Lessons from Israel’s 30-Year War
Date and Time: February 13 / 12:00pm
Address: Georgetown University
37 St NW and O St NW, Washington, DC
Copley Hall Copley Formal Lounge
Description: Israel and the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah have been at war for 30 years. Over the course of those three decades, Israel has relied on deterrence as a central strategy in coping with the Hezbollah threat. Has this strategy succeeded? What is the future of the Islamist-Israeli Conflict as Islamists gain power throughout the Middle East? What lessons can be drawn from the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict for states engaged in asymmetric warfare in the 21st Century?
Register for this event here: http://events.georgetown.edu/events/index.cfm?Action=View&CalendarID=349&EventID=101269
5. Evaluating Legal and Political Reform in Burma
Date and Time: February 13 / 3:30pm – 5:00pm
Address: Heritage Foundation
214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, D.C. 20002
Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Frank Jannuzi, Tom Malinowski, Jared Genser
Description: The ongoing war between the Burmese government and Kachin is a stark reminder that reforms in Burma are far from complete. How exactly is Burma doing in its political reform process? American officials and key figures in Congress have stressed that reform there is not irreversible. What are the prospects for reform continuing and becoming institutionalized? What are the prospects for backtracking? And is the U.S. policy of broad engagement properly calibrated and flexible enough to respond appropriately to set backs? Does Congress still have a role in setting policy? Our eminently qualified panelists will address these questions and many more as they evaluate political and legal reform in Burma.
Register for this event here: http://www.heritage.org/events/2013/02/burma
6. Schieffer Series: Foreign Policy Challenges for President Obama’s Second Term
Date and Time: February 13 / 5:30pm – 6:30pm
Address: Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Bob Schieffer, David Ignatius, Thomas L. Friedman, Margaret Brennan
Description: The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and TCU’s Schieffer School of Journalism invite you to the next session of The CSIS-Schieffer Series Dialogues
Register for this event here: http://csis.org/event/schieffer-series-foreign-policy-challenges-president-obamas-second-term
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Europe’s Hizballah problems
All three counterterror experts at the Washington Institute’s discussion of Europe’s Hizballah problem last week agreed that Bulgaria’s fingering of the organization for the Burgas attack may represent a turning point in the stalled debate surrounding Europe’s designation of Hizballah as a terrorist organization. Designation would go a long way towards curbing the increased out-of-area Hizbollah activity and the efficacy of Iran’s state-sponsored terrorism.
Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s ambassador-at-large and coordinator for terrorism argued that Hizballah terrorism aims to demonstrate to the West the dangers involved with continued Western pressure on Iran over the nuclear issue. He also argued that increased activity is Iran’s and Hizballah’s way of avenging the deaths of Imad Mugniyah and of slain Iranian nuclear scientists.
An EU designation of Hizballah has long been a US goal. Such a move would limit the organization’s ability to fundraise, would damage the organization’s image and delegitimize the organization as a political actor. According to Matthew Levitt, director of the Institute’s Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence,
Hizballah raises money hand over fist in Europe like the red cross.
However, many EU countries are incapable or unwilling to open counter-terrorism investigations against Hizballah without designating them as a terrorist organization.
The apprehension of a Hizballah operative targeting Israeli tourists in Cyprus, the foiling of a similar plot in Thailand, and the attack in Burgas all support Levitt’s point that Hizballah is very much a European problem. It trafficks narcotics and launders the proceeds from South America to Europe through Africa. Other fundraising methods include counterfeiting, which generates revenue specifically destined for Hizballah terrorist activities. The organization is involved full-throttle in the international terrorist scene.
Karen Betts, political counselor and representative for the UK’s Joint Intelligence Committee at the British embassy in Washington, agreed that European designation is the right response, but with one important caveat: maintaining the distinction between Hizballah’s “military” and “political” wings. This is a distinction, Levitt insisted, even Hizballah doesn’t make.
Hizballah’s popular mandate and role in the Lebanese body politic discourages Europe from designating Hizballah a terrorist organization. Europeans fear a designation would reduce their influence in Lebanon. The Europeans have the safety of the UNIFIL forces and Western targets in Lebanon to be concerned about. They also fear Hizballah’s possible upset of Lebanon’s stability in reaction to a European designation, though this seems unlikely given Hizballah’s interest in maintaining its image as the champion of Lebanese interests.
After a diligent, year-long investigation of the attack, Bulgaria’s accusation against Hizballah may move Europe towards the partial criminalization of the organization. In Benjamin’s words, the spilling of European blood on European soil is something European officials might find it difficult to ignore.
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