Day: February 17, 2013
This week’s peace picks
1. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Is a Peaceful Solution Possible?. Tuesday February 19, 10:00 AM-11:30 AM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington DC 20036
Speakers: Tamara Cofman Wittes, Thomas Pickering, Kenneth M. Pollack
After several years of increasingly punishing sanctions against its economy, there is hope that Iran is now prepared to resume negotiations with the international community to reach a solution to the ongoing nuclear standoff. Many experts fear that Iran is quickly approaching the nuclear threshold, and that 2013 could be the last chance to avoid this outcome. If the international community cannot seize that opportunity, it may be left only with much worse alternatives.
On February 19, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a discussion to examine strategies for resolving the nuclear standoff. Panelists will include former Ambassador Thomas Pickering, co-founder of The Iran Project, who will present the organization’s latest set of recommendations for addressing the nuclear issue, and Brookings Senior Fellow Kenneth Pollack. Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion.
After the program, panelists will take audience questions.
Website: here
2. America’s Quest for Arab-Israeli Peace, Tuesday, February 19, 1:00 PM- 3:00 PM, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington DC
Speakers: Daniel Kurtzer, Willian Quandt, Shibley Telhami, Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen
Please note: This event has been rescheduled for February 19th, from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. If you plan to attend on this rescheduled date, please RSVP here.
As President Barack Obama embarks on his second term and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu builds his coalition government, many warn that time is running out for the two-state solution. On the occasion of its publication, David Ignatius will join three of the authors of ‘The Peace Puzzle: America’s Quest for Arab-Israeli Peace’ and USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen to discuss their own views on whether and why that door is closing, and what the next Obama administration can do to keep it open.
‘The Peace Puzzle’ was written by Daniel C. Kurtzer, Scott B. Lasensky, William B. Quandt, Steven L. Spiegel, and Shibley Z. Telhami and co-published by USIP Press and Cornell University Press. It offers a uniquely objective account and assessment of the American role in the peace process over the last two decades, concluding with 11 recommendations for the next administration to strengthen its role in resolving the conflict. While the tone of the book remains optimistic, the authors question whether the ‘determined, persistent, creative, and wise’ American diplomacy and leadership that have ushered in breakthroughs in the past can be recaptured and whether the lessons learned from two decades of failures will be embraced.
Please join us for this discussion with David Ignatius on the prospects for a breakthrough in the peace process and the lessons offered in ‘The Peace Puzzle.’
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/americas-quest-arab-israeli-peace
3. A National Security Strategy for Lebanon, Wednesday, February 20, 12:30-2:00 PM, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW, Suite 700, Washington DC 20036
This event will feature a panel of experts to explore the challenges facing Lebanon’s national security and promote actionable recommendations for a solvent national security strategy for the country going forward, especially as it relates to US-Lebanese relations, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran.
Website: http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/02/20/national-security-strategy-lebanon
4. Arab Perspectives on Iran’s Role in a Changing Middle East, Thursday February 21, 10:00 AM-12:00 PM, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Speakers: Kristin Lord, Shibley Telhami, Michele Dunne
This meeting is co-sponsored by the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center and the United States Institute of Peace.
While there is much talk of an ‘Arab’ view of Iran, there are in fact significantly divergent views on Tehran’s role, even among rulers in the region. Additionally, despite the Sunni-Shiite divide, Arab public views of Iran and of its regional role are far more complex than-and often at odds with-the views of their leaders. Even those Arab governments that fear Iran most and, in some cases, support American military actions to weaken Iran’s influence, differ markedly from Israel’s calculations and expectations.
Shibley Telhami will present his analysis and paper on this subject on February 21, 2012 from 10:00am to 12:00pm. This is the second in a five-part series co-sponsored by the United States Institute of Peace and the Wilson Center’s Middle East program on ‘The Changing Security Architecture in the Middle East.’
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/arab-perspectives-iran-s-role-in-changing-middle-east
5.Women in Combat: The Changing Roles of Women in the US Military, Thursday February 21, 12:00 PM- 1:15 PM, Center for National Policy
Venue: Truman National Security Project & Center for National Policy- Capitol Hill Office, 1 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC, Suite 333
Speakers: Michael Breen, Kayla Wiliams, Scott Bates
On January 24th, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced the elimination of the ground combat exclusion rule for women in the military. Panetta stated his desire to move forward with a plan to eliminate all gender-based barriers to service. Join CNP President Scott Bates and an expert panel as they discuss the effects Secretary Panetta’s decision will have on current, and future generations of service-members, as well as which barriers will be the most challenging to overcome.
Website: http://cnponline.org/ht/display/EventDetails/i/41816
6. The Rise of Radical and Nonofficial Islamic Group in Russia’s Volga Region, Thursday February 21, 3:00 PM-5:00 PM, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW Washington DC 20006, Basement Level Conference Rooms A & B
Speakers: Sergey Markedonov, Gordon M. Hahn, Andrew C. Kuchins
In the two decades since the dissolution of the USSR, Russian and Western experts, human-rights activists, and journalists have become accustomed to the political violence of the North Caucasus. Recent tragedies in Russia’s Volga region suggest that this sort of violence – and the Islamist terrorists who perpetrate it – may not be confined to the Caucasus. This has raised a question: how likely is it that the North Caucasus scenario will be repeated in the Volga region? Any attempt to answer this question is complicated by the variety of non-official Muslim groups of both local and international origin active there and the complex set of linkages between them.
This report sheds light on the ideological sources and resources of radicalism in the Volga region, nonofficial Islamic movements’ support among the regional population, and opportunities for the potential growth of different forms of Islamist activities. It describes the origins of different nonofficial Islamic movements as well as their post-Soviet development, ideology, and relationship with the authorities and official Muslim clergy. The report also offers practical approaches both for Russian domestic policy and for the U.S.-Russian security cooperation agenda.
Website: http://csis.org/event/rise-radical-and-nonofficial-islamic-groups-russias-volga-region
7. Tunisia: Are Economic Decline and Political Violence Prevailing?, Thursday February 21, 5:30 PM- 7:30 PM, John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS-Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington DC, Room 812
Speakers: Mustapha Kamel Nabli, Emauele Santi, Stephen McInerney, Alexis Arieff, Daniele Moro
Mustapha Kamel Nabli, governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia and senior adviser to the World Bank chief economist; Emanuele Santi, principal country economist at Tunisia African Development Bank; Stephen McInerney, executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy; Alexis Arieff, an analyst in African Affairs at Congressional Research Services; and Daniele Moro (moderator), visiting scholar in the SAIS African Studies Program, will discuss this topic.
8. The Middle East: What’s Next? With General James Mattis, Thursday, February 21, 6:00 PM- 7:30 PM, Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
Venue: Russel Senate Office Building, Constitution Avenues and 1st street, NE, Kennedy Caucus Room (SR-325)
Speakers: Gen. James N. Mattis
As the Middle East continues to undergo tectonic political, social, and economic change, the future of the U.S role in the region seems ever-more complex and uncertain. General James Mattis, Commander of U.S. Central Command, will share his analysis of the ongoing impact of the Arab Spring, long term American strategy in Afghanistan, U.S.-Pakistan relations, troubles with Iran, the future of Iraq, and the shifting balance of power within the Middle East. Gen Mattis will also discuss his perspectives on what Middle Eastern issues are likely to consume the attention of the next generation of foreign policy leaders.
9. Eastern Congo: Changing Dynamics and the Implications for Peace, Friday, February 22, 10:00 Am-11:30, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington DC
Speakers: Raymond Gilpin, John Prendergast, Bennett Freeman, Ida Sawyer, Sasha Lezhnev
Unrest in northeastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues to claim lives, disproportionately target women, fuel the illicit economy, constrain development and undermine prospects for peace. Mediation efforts by the United Nations and the DRC’s neighbors have yielded few tangible results and mistrust is rife. Major issues include the role of the M23 in the peace process, widespread gender-based violence and the resilient illicit economy (particularly in the mining sector).
The M23 rebel group was formed on 4 April 2012 when some 300 soldiers mutinied, citing poor conditions in the army and the government’s unwillingness to implement the 23 March 2009 peace deal. They seized control of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province in November 2012 and have been involved in regionally-brokered mediation efforts since being forced out in December.
On February 5, the South African government arrested a group of 19 Congolese belonging to a shadowy group called the Union of Nationalists for Renewal, who were allegedly plotting a violent coup in the DRC. This further complicates an already dire situation and injects an added sense of urgency. In light of these developments, peacebuilding in the DRC requires a nuanced assessment of conflict dynamics and creative strategies to leverage windows of opportunity.
On February 22, the U.S. Institute of Peace will convene an event on recent changes in the war in eastern Congo and their implications for peace. Panelists will share insights from recent trips to the region, examine opportunities and risks for advancing a meaningful peace process, and highlight lessons from other relevant peace processes potentially applicable to the Great Lakes.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/eastern-congo-changing-dynamics-and-the-implications-peace
10. Is there a Widening Sunni-Shia Schism?, Friday February 22, 2:00 PM- 3:30 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington DC, 20036
Speakers: Durriya Badani, Suzanne Maloney, Geneive Abdo, Bruce Riedel
An upswing in sectarian violence in Pakistan, Bahrain and elsewhere in recent months highlights the historic tensions, and contemporary political importance of schisms between Sunni and Shia communities across the Muslim world. Why is the level of violence rising and what regional and internal factors are influencing it? What are the implications for these countries should the relationship between the two sects continue to deteriorate? What role does the U.S. or other external actors play in shaping these developments and what could they do to alleviate tensions?
On February 22, the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at Brookings will host a discussion to explore the factors behind this apparently worsening conflict between Sunni and Shia communities. Panelists will include Brookings Senior Fellow Bruce Riedel, director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, and Geneive Abdo, fellow at the Middle East program at the Stimson Center and author of a forthcoming Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings paper examining sectarianism in the context of the Arab Awakening. Durriya Badani, deputy director of the Project, will offer welcoming remarks. Brookings Senior Fellow Suzanne Maloney will moderate the discussion.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Precarious ally
The Bahraini royal family needs to deliver credible reforms. There was little difference of opinion on that point at the Carnegie Endowment’s discussion of US policy and the political impasse in Bahrain this week. Greater debate surrounded the issue of US policy towards the country, particularly with respect to the Fifth Fleet. Should the US use the Fifth Fleet as leverage with the Bahraini regime, or should the US prepare to relocate it?
Divisions within the various sectarian groups make the Bahraini impasse complex. The inability to produce meaningful reforms has eroded support for the mainstream Shia opposition, Al Wefaq, whose supporters are shifting their allegiance to the leaderless February 14 Youth Coalition. The monarchy’s hardliners are stirring up sectarianism, isolating Sunni moderates and encouraging Sunni Islamists to redirect their class-based anger against the Shia.
Based on Frederic Wehrey’s paper “the Precarious Ally: Bahrain’s Impasse and US Policy,” the discussion concluded that the volatility of the internal political situation made the effects of relocating the Fifth Fleet impossible to predict.
Matar Ebrahim Matar, an MP belonging to the moderate Sunni opposition, blamed the regime’s marginalization of Sunni moderates in favor of Sunni Islamists for creating the inaccurate impression that no moderates exist among the Sunnis. Matar also characterized the Bahraini regime as “immature,” pointing to the “vengeful” force used in repressing the Pearl Roundabout protests. He warned that in the eyes of Bahrainis, continued provision of arms and recognition to the regime will taint American legitimacy in the country, inflaming anti-Americanism.
Regarding US policy and the Fifth Fleet, Matar suggested the U.S. should strongly remind the regime that the US-Bahrain defense relationship carries an obligation to reform. Failing that, the the US should relocate the Fifth Fleet. Otherwise, the Fifth Fleet will continue to be an obstacle to reform, one that causes Defense Department preferences to prevail over those of the State Department.
Jon Alterman of CSIS felt that US ability to influence political events in Bahrain is limited. He argued that moving the Fifth Fleet would do more damage to US and Bahraini interests than good, and that US or Saudi actions as external referees would definitely not solve Bahrain’s problem. Instead, the US should encourage dialogue among the parties, working to get those who reject dialogue back to the table.
Toby C. Jones of Rutgers University had a different view. He thought the US needs to expand the US-Bahraini strategic relationship to include economic objectives. If the US focuses only on oil, counter-terrorism and Iran, its leverage will be limited. By expanding its focus to regional economic issues, including the huge weapons market, the US would increase its leverage. The debate regarding the Fifth Fleet should center less on location and more on its mission, which should be a broad political one.
If and when Bashar al-Asad falls, Bahrain will remain the only ruling sectarian minority left in the region. To avoid a difficult future, the royal family must compromise with the opposition. In the words of Matar, “the propagation of problems moves with repression, not reform.” The US and the Al Khalifa monarchy need to keep that in mind going forward.
RSS - Posts
