A new map

Professor Ian Lustick of the University of Pennsylvania thinks Israel needs a new map, as the old Zionist one is unsuited to its current circumstances, but he gave only general indications of the contours it might trace at a discussion today sponsored by the Foundation for Middle East Peace and the Middle East Policy Council.

Israel’s Zionist pillars no longer bear weight.  Zionism assumed international sympathy for a democratic Jewish state, justified by the Holocaust.  That has turned into international sympathy for a Palestinian state.  Israel is no longer viewed as the vanguard of democracy, since it inequitably favors its Jewish population.  The Holocaust has declined in relevance.

Israel is lost.  Even on the left it sees no possibility of the two-state solution, or any other possible and satisfactory outcome.  Its citizens live in existential dread, questioning whether the state will survive.  It is no accident that the newest political party on the horizon is Yesh Atid:  “There is a future.”

The main issue is the West Bank, where the settlements, a big increase in Palestinian population and stalemate in the peace process since before the second intifada has left Israel without a sense of purpose and without viable solutions.  Democracy for the Palestinians is inimical to Israel.  The tenets of Zionism provide no answer.

Is there a way out of the impasse?  There are certainly catastrophic outcomes that are possible and even probable in a highly and artificially constrained situation.  But there are also other serious options:  a two-state solution that includes a viable Palestinian state with part of Jerusalem, a shareable narrative, generous compensation of refugees, abandonment of nuclear weapons throughout the region, an end to the use of force and removal of settlements, which are bad for Israeli security.

How could the situation be made to evolve in this direction?  There is no visible political force within Israel pushing for it right now.  Only in the universities is thinking of this sort evident.  President Obama cannot do much, due to his own domestic constraints.  But on his upcoming trip he might be able to nudge Israel in the right direction.  A prisoner release would be a positive step.  But it would not be useful to restart the Middle East peace process unless the President is prepared to put serious pressure on Israel by stopping aid.

Palestinian strategy at the moment is separation, boycott and delegitimization (including use of the International Criminal Court).  It is a long-term strategy that does not preclude practical cooperation in the meanwhile.  It does not require the peace process.

Israel is watching Syria attentively, especially the possible use of chemical weapons and transfers to Hizbollah, but it is not helping Bashar al Asad to hold on or hoping that whatever succeeds him will be an improvement.  This is a realistic and moderate posture appropriate to the circumstances.

That was about the only glimmer of light in an otherwise dark picture.