All planes to Mogadishu are full

SAIS master’s student Solvej Krause reports:

A Georgetown University event last week brought together civil society representatives from Somalia, US-based nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that operate in Somalia, and a US State Department representative to discuss recent developments in stabilization and statebuilding in Somalia.  The tone of all four speakers was surprisingly optimistic.  “All planes going into Mogadishu are full,”said Abdurashid Ali, who runs an NGO based in Minneapolis and Garowe, Puntland.  State Department officer Rob Satrom said that for the first time he is getting calls from US-based Somalis wanting to move back to Somalia.  The panel agreed that the formation of the new government and the election of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud are reasons for cautious optimism.

Speakers

Abdurashid Ali, Executive Director, Somali Family Services
Eric Robinson, Senior Program Officer, Horn of Africa, National Endowment for Democracy
Steven Hansch, Relief International, Board Member, Professor at GWU
Rob Satrom, Somalia Desk Officer, State Department, Bureau of African Affairs

Background

For the first time since the collapse of Siad Barre’s dictatorship in 1991, the US government officially recognized the Somali government in Mogadishu in late January 2013.  President Hassan Sheikh met President Obama in Washington last month, a sign of the strong US support for the burgeoning governance structures in Somalia, the former “failed state” poster child .  The Somalis on the panel spoke of the current period as “the end of the transition period” in Somalia, even though in many respects this is only the beginning.

Official recognition by the US means that Somalia is now eligible to receive development assistance from USAID and other development agencies.  Without an internationally recognized government, Somalia has long been unable to receive any direct governmental development assistance.  Somaliland, the autonomous and largely peaceful region in Northern Somalia, suffers the same fate.  Its politicians frequently complain about the lack of recognition by the international community.  But the chances of recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state are now lower than ever, despite the region’s remarkable success in stabilization, the development of robust trade links to the Gulf, and a shift from clan-based politics to multiethnic democratic governance.

Steven Hansch from Relief International traced the history of US humanitarian involvement in Somalia.  The US began delivering food aid to Somalia during the Ogaden War in 1978.  In 1992, following a devastating famine in the Horn of Africa, the US intervened launched “Operation Restore Hope,” originally a military intervention on humanitarian grounds.  But once the intervention was under way, the mandate shifted to governance.  In 2009/10, food aid to Somalia was interrupted and foreign aid workers had to be evacuated because of a dangerous rise in kidnappings of foreigners.  The anti-terrorism agenda in Somalia often got in the way of the humanitarian agenda.  Hansch believes Congress must to revisit the Patriot Act to ensure that anti-terrorism objectives do not prevent the delivery of food aid.  Other points made by Hansch:

• There is currently a big debate among governments and NGOs about the role of the UN in Somalia.  A proposal to unite the different UN agencies into one integrated mission is on the table.  This move is meant to improve the efficacy of the UN’s humanitarian and stabilization work in Somalia.  Hansch is strongly against this proposal because he does not want humanitarian aid to get caught up with the UN’s more political functions.  This is also the view of the UK, which wants to keep the different branches separate, while the US is formally for integration.  In Liberia, the UN led an integrated mission.  According to Hansch, it was a complete disaster.
• The situation of Somali refugees in Kenya is precarious.  There were more than 976,000 refugees in Kenya and Ethiopia in 2012.  The Kenyan government recently announced its  intention to round up Somali refugees and send them to camps.  Is this a matter that UNHCR should handle or should the US government act?

Rob Satrom from the Somalia Desk at the State Department said that the previous US-backed government (the Transitional Federal Government) was largely operated out of Nairobi and widely regarded as corrupt.  In 2012, elections in Somalia could not be held due to instability.  The number of members of parliament was reduced from 550 down to 250.  To the surprise of everyone, the former president of the TFG was not reelected.  Satrom called the new president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud a “pretty credible player.”

• Since 2007, the US has provided a little over $400 million in assistance to Somalia.  The US government is keen for Somalia to develop a more professional national army.  But the USG does not provide any funds directly to the Somali government, because leakage, corruption and diversion of funds pose a huge problem.
• Satrom stressed the destructive role of Al Shabaab, an Al Qaeda-linked militia, during the famine last year.  The group banned 18 organizations from delivering food aid in the country.  Satrom believes that this is one of the reasons why the Somali population has turned against Al Shabaab.  Until one year ago, Al Shabaab carried the day but today the tables have turned.

Eric Robinson is half Somali and works for the National Endowment for Democracy, a Congressionally funded organization founded by President Reagan in 1983 to promote democracy abroad.  NED invests $1.1 million in projects in Somalia – South, Puntland and Somaliland.  He stressed that democracy cannot solely be viewed as an end in itself in Somalia: “…democracy has to deliver. People want to see service delivery.  Somalis have seen other people do things in their country. They’ve never seen Somalis doing things in their country.”  There is huge resentment towards the UN in Somalia due to its failure to provide stability and provision of ineffectual projects.  What matters most for Somalia now, is “delivering things that aren’t conferences or UN compounds,” said Robinson.

• Turkey is getting a lot of credit for the development work they do in Somalia.  According to Robinson, this credit is deserved, but he adds that it is easier for Turks to operate inside Somalia than for Americans or Europeans because of their shared religious beliefs and greater cultural affinity.
• One of Somalia’s biggest problems right now is corruption. “Billions are stolen with impunity”, says Robinson.  But establishing rule of law and security means that ministries have to be trusted with money.  Robinson called for a new “on the fly” audit mechanism to verify how money is spent.
• Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Johnnie Carson’s ‘Dual Track Policy’ to engage all Somali political actors as long as they are not supporting Al-Shabaab did not deliver.  The impact of the policy is not felt on the ground, says Robinson.
• Puntland is moving forward with municipal elections.  They do not want sovereignty, according to Robinson.  New political associations are being formed in Puntland and Robinson is curious to see whether they will be multi-clan or single clan.  He recommends caution: “There is no way they are ready for one person, one vote by May.”
• It is getting safer in Mogadishu and it is getting more dangerous in Somaliland, particularly around Burao.  Many Al-Shabaab leaders are from southern Somaliland and they are getting pushed back into Somaliland.  There is an Al Qaeda presence in southern Puntland. The problem with Al-Shabaab is that the traditional clan-based rules of protection based on diya (blood money, trading captured people between clans) are “out of the window”.

Abdurashid Ali is the executive director of Somali Family Services, an NGO based in Minneapolis and his native Puntland.  For the first time in Somalia’s post-1991 history, he says people are hopeful about the future.  Somali expats are returning to Mogadishu where the security situation is improving.  “All flights into Mogadishu are full.”

• Negotiating with Al Shabaab as a political group is not an option for Ali.
• He is skeptical about building a national army from Mogadishu because this would inevitably empower one clan over another.  Central government funds should be distributed to all regions.
• Federalism is the answer to Somalia’s governance problems.  Ali calls clan politics “a cancer.”  Using the clan to get to power is not the answer. Clan politics are not going anywhere in Somalia.  We have learned that.
• Ali criticizes those who say that “traditional” (i.e. clan-based) forms of politics should be accepted as the norm and believe that democracy does not stand a chance in Somalia:  “Who the hell does not want to have a stake in his life? Who does not want a say in how he is governed?” Who does not want a say in how he is governed?”  He notes that the clans were used by Western colonial powers to mobilize people  in Somalia.
• Demobilization is one of the hardest challenges in Somalia today.  Members of clan militias who were given AK 47s and left their nomadic lifestyle have nowhere to return to.
• He is excited to see a multi-clan leadership of a new Puntland party.  The question is whether the elected representatives will surround themselves with their own clan members or commit themselves to multi-clan, multi-party democratic politics.