Do unto others…

As soon as the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo was elevated to the prime ministerial level, the process began to proceed much more smoothly, until the current round. The slowdown  is understandable given the complexity of the topic: dismantlement of illegal Serb institutions in northern Kosovo.

In an attempt to prevent full integration of the Serb-dominated municipalities into the institutional framework of Kosovo, the government in Belgrade is demanding the formation of an association of Serb municipalities in Kosovo. The problem is that Serbia insists that the association should have executive and legislative powers, including in the area of public security and rule of law. Priština has rejected the proposal as inconsistent with Kosovo’s Constitution. Washington also seems to oppose the idea, as the US Ambassador to Serbia, Michael Kirby, said that his country would not like to see another Republika Srpska in the Balkans.

The growing divergence between the two sides has prompted Brussels to intensify its diplomatic activity. For that reason, EU High Representative Catherine Ashton held a meeting with Serbia’s top figures – President Tomislav Nikolić, Prime Minister Ivica Dačić and his deputy Aleksandar Vučić.

Prior to the meeting, President Nikolić was pessimistic about the outcome, expressing concern that Serbia could be asked to concede more than it can accept. But when the meeting was over, he appeared in a quite different mood and told media that an agreement would likely be reached by the end of the month, as Priština agreed to make some concessions. Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaçi denied Nikolić’s words, demanding an explanation. This week Lady Ashton will visit Kosovo to try to sort things out.

Whatever Belgrade is hoping for, it is clear that no executive or legislative powers beyond the Ahtisaari agreement should be granted to the Serb municipalities. The most Serbia should get is more clarity on the implementation of Ahtissari in northern Kosovo, so that the government can save face in the eyes of more nationalist voters.   The probabilty that premature elections will be held this autumn is growing with each passing day. Fortunately for the governing coalition, two thirds of people in Serbia accept that Kosovo is independent according to the latest opinion poll. For the record, the support to European integration is also on a steady decline for two years already.

Meanwhile, Albanians from the Preševo Valley in southern Serbia have requested an association of Albanian municipalities in Serbia along the lines of the one that Belgrade wants for Kosovo Serbs. Zoran Stanković, a Serbian government official, countered that the institution of such an association would violate Serbia’s Constitution. But so too would the Serb one in Kosovo, if it extends its functionality to police and courts.

Thaçi likewise faces elections, in 2014.  He will need to save face as well.  Even if the appeal for the Albanian association in Serbia was made only to put pressure on Belgrade to soften its own demands, the idea is worth considering.  As Daniel Serwer wrote:

Whatever the Serbs of Kosovo gain in this negotiation should also be available to the Albanian-majority community of Presevo in southern Serbia.

Stability in the long-term requires reciprocity.  It may be the only feasible solution.