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Nowruz/Passover/Easter: better than expected

I did not anticipate how well President Obama’s visit to Israel, Palestine and Jordan would go last week.  I was not alone.  In Washington, pre-roadtrip skepticism prevailed:  differences over Iran and Palestine were anticipated to overshadow any cosmetic improvements in the President’s often tense personal relations with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

It may still turn out that way in the longer-term.  Whatever new castles Obama built in the Mediterranean sand could be quickly swept away.  But for those who think the US is decline and can no longer influence events in the Middle East, this trip should sow doubt.  And for those who thought Mitt Romney would do better with the Israelis than Obama, this trip suggests the contrary.

The President went out of his way to establish his bona fides with Israelis:  praising their democracy, admiring their courage, recalling their idealism, remembering their history, sharing their losses, ensuring their security.  But he at the same time spoke bluntly of the need to make peace with the Palestinians, who will have enjoyed his performance less but still got a blunt and unambiguous defense of their right to a state of their own.  The well-crafted statement brought the president ample applause also from Israelis.  Presumably there were not a lot of West Bank settlers in the audience.  It was a virtuouso performance.

So much for the flash.  What about the substance?  The big issues for the trip to the Middle East were three:

Iran:  The President and Netanyahu sounded more united on preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.  In fact, there are differences, with Israel concerned that the Americans will agree to allow Iran to hold on to a substantial quantity of 20% enriched uranium, which could be further enriched quickly with more advanced centrifuges that Iran is now installing.  The Iranians are slowing their accumulation of enriched material while increasing their capacity to move quickly if they decide to develop nuclear weapons.  Obama made it clear he would not stand in the way of Israel taking military action, but only the US can cause serious damage to the Iranian nuclear program. Netanyahu seems now to accept that the Americans will draw the redline, albeit closely consulting with the Israelis.

Syria:  Secretary Kerry has been leaning forward on bringing an end to the civil war in Syria, but President Obama is still wanting it to be done without US military intervention or lethal supplies to the opposition.  Israel is increasingly concerned about more advanced arms flowing to Hizbollah and about the buildup of more radical Sunni Islamists on its Golan Heights boundary with Syria.  The apparent use during the week of chemical weapons–the regime says by the revolutionaries, the revolutionaries say by the regime–is a big problem for President Obama, who side-stepped the issue during his trip by saying he would await a determination on whether they were really used or not.  Still, he said their use would be a game changer, whatever that may mean.

Palestine:  The US and Israel need to keep the Palestinian Authority afloat, even as they discourage it from seeking further international recognition, taking Israeli officials to the International Criminal Court and reconciling with Hamas.  This is a delicate dance, and Obama was less than clear on next steps.  He is downplaying settlements per se and wants direct negotiations on borders, which of course would limit the extent of Israeli settlements.

Obama also has to be concerned about other issues:

Jordan:  The big problem is the burgeoning flow of refugees from Syria, who are getting close to half a million.  Amman just doesn’t have the capacity to welcome many more and needs help to manage the burden of those who have already arrived.  The presidential visit will buck up King Abdullah, but the public relations effect is likely to be short-lived.  He needs financial help (Obama pledged $200 million more for Syrian refugees in Jordan) and some good advice on carrying forward political reform.  He is getting most of the former from the Saudis, who aren’t likely to give him much of the latter.

Egypt:  The Israelis will have expressed concern about instability in Egypt, even though Muslim Brotherhood President Morsi has so far not undermined the peace treaty.  The presence of Islamist extremists in Sinai appears still to be growing.  The difficulties Egypt is having in establishing its new regime and maintaining legitimate governance throughout the country will be of concern to both Israel and the US.

Turkey:  The big surprise of the President’s trip was his successful mediation of a Netanyahu apology for an attack on an aid flotilla to Gaza that killed nine Turks in 2010.  This comes along with Turkish success in convincing imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan to agree to a ceasefire in the decades-long rebellion.  Both moves will help to shore up Turkey in its continuing confrontation with Bashar al Asad and restore some confidence in an Ankara whose “zero problems with neighbors” policy had been in tatters.

I have my doubts Obama will succeed where other presidents have failed:  on Palestine and Iran in particular.  But he did well last week, and for that we should all be thankful.  The Nowruz/Passover/Easter season is proving better than expected.