Black smoke and fortitude
The EU-sponsored talks between Belgrade and Pristina concerning northern Kosovo and related issues ended last night without an agreement. The delegations returned home to consider their options. The Kosovo delegation appears reasonably satisfied with whatever is on the table, which presumably meets Prime Minister Thaci’s requirement that any agreement be consistent with the Kosovo constitution (which incorporates the Ahtisaari Comprehensive Peace Settlement).
Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Vucic offered to resign. This I suppose means that he was the stickler. This is not as surprising as some may imagine. While allowing “Socialist” Prime Minister Dacic lots of rope (to hang himself with) in the bilateral dialogue, “Progressives” President Nikolic and Vucic have been absolutely committed to maintaining Serbia’s claim to sovereignty over all of Kosovo. They will also want a deal for the Serbs in northern Kosovo that includes police and courts as well as most other things outside Pristina’s control. Why they thought they could achieve either of these goals is beyond me.
Lady Ashton, who has handled this negotiation well, now needs to wait the Serbs out. No one in Belgrade ever agreed to a deal until the very last moment, hoping to get more by holding out. Ashton does not report on progress in the talks until mid-April. Letting Nikolic and Vucic contemplate the loss (at least for a couple of years) of the opportunity to open accession negotiations with the EU is the only way to get them to move from whatever position they’ve dug themselves into.
Vucic in particular has a lot at stake. He has been riding high on anti-corruption efforts, including some that have embarrassed Dacic. It had been widely anticipated that Nikolic would call early elections, hoping to capitalize while blaming Dacic for any loss in the Kosovo negotiations. I suppose it is possible for the Progressives to do well in elections by saying that they chose Kosovo over the EU, but if they do that they will be nailing the door to EU accession shut for a good long time. It would be much better for Serbia to go to early elections with an EU date for accession talks announced.
Suzana Grubjesic, the minister in charge of EU integration, was in Brussels with the Serbian delegation. I trust she will tell her bosses how dumb it would be to pass up this opportunity. Serbia needs the funds that come with accession talks. There is also a real possibility the EU could close the political door to new members, even though Serbia has been moving relatively quickly to meet the technical requirements. The euro crisis is not yet history. If it gets worse, Serbia could find itself on the slow boat to EU membership, along with Kosovo.
A lot now depends on something the EU is often lacking: fortitude. But this is a case where the EU requirement for consensus does not necessarily lead to a lowest common denominator solution. All 27 members have to agree to open accession talks with Serbia. German Chancellor Merkel has been vital to keeping the EU dialogue on track. If she remains stalwart in insisting on dissolution of the parallel Serbian structures in northern Kosovo, we could see not only progress in normalizing relations between Kosovo and Serbia but also an EU that learns to use its diplomatic clout well.
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22 thoughts on “Black smoke and fortitude”
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It’s not Suzana Mrgic, the minister in charge of EU integration, its Suzana Grubjesic.
Yes, apologies: I know her by her maiden name. Will change in the text.
The “SNS-bots” – Vucic’s supporters – had been crowing the past couple of days that the EU would be sure to come up with a better offer and put more pressure on Thaci now that the Serbs’ most powerful politician had agreed to participate. Oh, dear. There goes a lot of that perception of power he’s been cultivating so assiduously in recent months by refusing bail to arrested tycoons.
The idea that a leader of the KLA – a bunch of guys who took on the “fourth largest army in Europe” armed with some WWII rifles – would be talked into doing something against his will seems slightly ridiculous, in any case.
A source “well-informed about Brussels diplomacy” – somebody’s driver? – is quoted in Prishtina’s Express as saying that the Serbs are going to be in big trouble with the international community and end up with all the blame for the failure of the talks. He claims there’s a parallel with Rambouillet in that the negotiators weren’t given enough authority to agree to what had to be agreed to but that Milosevic/Nikolic back in Belgrade wouldn’t countenance. But then he goes on to predict that the U.S. will veto the $3bln Serbia needs from the IMF to cover its budget deficit, which sounds like gilding the lily, or maybe just wishful thinking. With the Serbian penchant for last-minute, breathless meetings-of-deadlines, their public may be able to look forward to headlines up until April 22 about meetings of the “top of the government” and defiant statements from most of those holding public office and loyal party members interested in keeping their government jobs. Hungary endured the loss of 2/3 of its territory after WWI with greater fortitude, including that of the Vojvodina given to Serbia, just in case anybody’s forgotten.
@Dan,
In regard to funds from the EU that come with accession talks I heard a Serbian analyst saying that Serbia could get some 3 or 4 billion Euros a year! It was strange to me on that huge sum. I don’t know whether its true.
Giving what Mr Vuk Draskovic says i.e that “Serbia wants something don’t possesses and can’t posses (Kosovo), while not wanting something can possess (EU membership)”, why Serbia is loosing such fortune?
i just dont get the reasoning for not just swapping two territories that don’t want to live in the others’ country.The western powers(EU,US) state that this will cause other regions to seek secession,however by proloning this it is festering into a conflict that will one day explode.
If the Serbs came out with a serious proposal to do this, I bet the objections would be mild to nonexistent. They could present it as undoing an historical mistake. Sometime during Tito’s day the border was adjusted add what are now the northern municipalities were added and the eastern areas subtracted. The idea apparently was to add more Serbs to Kosovo’s population and reduce the number of Albanians – they were playing similar games in in both Kosovo and Vojvodina as recently as the 1990s.)
But the demographics are working against them, and people know it. They’ll be closing 200 classrooms next year in Serbia because the number of kids entering high school keeps falling. (In north Kosovo they’re arguing to keep all of them open for the sake of morale.) Just today somebody was complaining about Albanians buying up property in parts of Serbia left empty by the combination of the move from the countryside to the city and the overall decline in population.
So, if you want to start a petition asking for an exchange of territories while there are still Serbians to inhabit the land (and mutual recognition, special rights for all minorities who don’t want to move, whatever it takes), I’ll sign it. It does seem like the most sensible and fairest solution.
ive read the same thing Amer concerning the redrawing of land borders of kosovo.I just think its the best option out there and would be face saving for both the serbs and kosovars Who then can move on.
PS I REALLY LIKE this quote:
“They could present it as undoing an historical mistake.”
@peter: you are festering a conflict either way with that way of thinking. Anyway Russia is against it. So is Turkey. Let us not mention the US and EU. Or any sane person. That said Macedonians too. You cannot enter EU with the way of thinking that is all that EU is standing against. It is not territories. It is the principle (on which law is based). Things failed because the part that dealt with properties (Serbia and Yugoslavia heavily invested in Kosovo for 50 years). In that sense I am all on Serbian side of the negotiations. Otherwise it is nationalisation (the thing that communist did in the countries where they came to power). I have certain investment in e.g. the Trepca. It is my money, my shares, my investment. Sovereignty and UN has nothing to do with it. You cannot have your cake and eat it would be thing that I would send as a message to the US.
@Dan & “Amer”: I believe you both give voice to a crucial error in the Quint’s approach to north Kosovo: ignoring the position of the northern Kosovo Serbs themselves and relating everything that the Serbian government does vis-a-vis Kosovo to internal politics. Surely, maneuvering to avoid blame (or apportion it) is part of what’s going on in Belgrade. But the proponents of settling the north Kosovo issue by backing the Nikolic/Dacic government into a corner over the EU membership issue also overestimate its ability to simply order the northern Kosovo Serbs to surrender to Pristina. And the Quint – through EULEX and NATO – have been unable so far to simply sweep northern resistance away. Many “old” Balkans hands seem to expect the northern Serbs to fold when Belgrade tells them to or when they face determined force as the Serbs of Croatia did. This ignores the fact that everyone has learned the history that followed. The northern Serbs won’t surrender to the same fate just because Belgrade tells them to. And what Serbian government or which Serbian politicians would like to be seen simply cutting the north Kosovo Serbs off and tossing them to “Albanian control.”
It’s useful to consider what an opponent is actually capable of doing, rather than what he promises or threatens to do. Without support from Belgrade – especially salaries and security forces – the 4 towns are simply a smallish group of people, most of whom simply want to get on with their lives. Given an honorable reason to change, there’s a good chance they’ll take it. “Doing what’s best for Serbia” might just be that reason. Individuals – not politicians, of course – have said that as patriotic Serbs, they’ll do whatever their government in Belgrade tells them to do. If Belgrade accepts what is rumored to be the current proposal, an Erdut-like option for an interim period of international protection of their rights, they might well find a way of accepting the outcome. As one commenter at B92 put it (I think it was ?!-), it’s like dying of cancer rather than a bullet. But with cancer, there’s always the hope of remission or of a new treatment being discovered. If certain people want to reinterpret acceptance as inat rather than hope, that’s their affair.
Steven E. Meyer:
“Although the current government’s most recent Kosovo “platform” almost certainly will lead nowhere, negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina – without the interference of Washington, Brussels or Moscow, is the only way to arrive at a fair, just and permanent solution.”
Completely agree Mr.Gallucci,I just don’t understand what the Kosovo Albanians have been advocating for the last quarter of a century (self determination)the same Kosovo Albanians and the west are trying to deny to the Serbs of Norhern Kosovo.
You are completely out of reality. Self-determination doesn’t guarantee anyone into doing whatever you like. If we go with such logic than why NOT self-determination for 100K of Albanians in southern Serbia or 200K of Bosnikas in Sandjak (Serbia) or 400K of Hungarians in northern Serbia?
So WHY NOT self-determination for 400,000 of Hungarians in northern Serbia but yes for just 40,000 (TEN times less) Serbs in northern Kosovo. No Sir, this is totally UNFAIR.
Albanians the minute self determination is brought up that dosen’t favor them, they bring up the same arguments about self determination of other peoples in the region.This is a issue between Serbia and Kosovo that needs to be settled,it has nothting to do with hungarians in vodjvodina,croats in hercog bosna and Greek in Northern Epirus or Turks in Cyprus.
Peter,
Its not a matter of Albanians on whether they want self-determination or not. It is a matter even for Serbs in Vojvodina (northern Serbia) who want more autonomy and some even speaking for republic of Vojvodina. So Serbian demands for more autonomy for northern Serbs in Kosovo is getting back as boomerang for Serbia itself. But OK, if we talk for Kosovo vs Serbia talks why then Serbia is not giving right to self-determination for 100,000 Albanians in Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja?? Let Serbia show how this can be applied then discussion on giving the same for 40,000 Serbs in northern Kosovo goes on.
Wait!
So i don’t have THE RIGHT to choose were i wanna live and i DON’T have the right to self-determination and The Albanians have ??!!
From my perspective i see that EU is against it’s own principle.
I see bombs casting every week to some serb’s backyards. Is some other Serb doing this to a neighbour Serb?? I dont think so.
If that is happening now, what would you think would happen when our Serbian structures leave us?? Albanians will help us rebuild ????? Really ????
So lets conclude:
1. Serbs do not have the right to self determination
2. We must be under Albanian power and military force
3. Albanians will provide us with a jobs and choose a Serb over a fellow Albanian.
Haha funny joke
And one last thing – how do you explain that Albanians have two countries one next to another ?? Is there any other nation who has so??
I know that many regret how things were handled here during a period last 10years. Many even regret having kosovo independent.
But how that works for me?? Im not the one who made this situation. And at the end they give Serbia an ultimatum if it wants eu talks.
Well Austro-Hungary did the same in 1914. and the WWI started.
Dont wanna see that again!
As much as I feel empathy towards Serbs from Kosovo, I respectfully disagree.
If Northern Kosovo has a right to secede why not Albanians from southern Serbia do not have the same rights?
Also, Serbs south from Ibar river are already partially integrated, if not even more, into Kosovo’s institutions. Any additional destruction of SPC churches and monuments would provoke a harsh response by Kosovo’s Western allies. Vast majority of Kosovars still want to be on a fast pace transition towards the E.U.
To respond to your other countries comparison, there are some other nations having two states; for example Austria and Germany, or even Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Also, name one country that regretted recognizing Kosovo as independent country?
Finally, your comparison with the WWI is just incorrect. Russia, or other so called BRIC countries, will never back Serbian regime beyond verbal support. Therefore, there is no need to be worried about. There would not be another “world war”.
“I see bombs casting every week to some serb’s backyards. Is some other Serb doing this to a neighbour Serb?? I dont think so.”
Since the property being attacked belongs to Serbs serving in the Kosovo Police or the civil affairs office, it’s probably Serbs doing the bombing, yes.
You are sure about that? What happened with bomb which injured children in Bosnjacka mahala? They arrested a Serb but they released him soon after that.
Read the papers. Even B92 has reported on the jobs most of these people hold. Individual cases may of course be due to private grudges. Or mistakes in identifying targets.
Amer, you are pathetic. All the time you come up with some sick ideas and observations. Aren’t you the one who recommended to move Serbian churches from Kosovo to Serbia? What would be then written in Kosovo’s school history books? Churches built by Albanians(nearly destroyed by Albanians in 2004) relocated to Serbia? What would be left for tourist to visit in Kosovo? Great historic place like Bondstill?
@kosovo serb,
You are wrong in many of your points:
1. Serbs have right to self-determination where they form a large group i.e in Serbia and Bosnia@Herzegovina with “Republika Srpska.
2. No you will not be “under Albanian power and military force”. You will have your local institutions and dealing with educational system from elementary schools up to University. Yo will have under control medical services in all levels. You will have all other local services as every other municipality. You may use your Serbian language freely and without restrictions anywhere in Kosovo. You will participate in central Kosovo government and have VETO POWER so no decision will be made, which affects you, without your approval. You have 10 reserved seats at Kosovo Assembly plus other seats based on turnout. You have reserved ministerial positions and other positions. You may be part of Kosovo police and Kosovo military force adn amny other aspects.
3. Not Albanians but Kosovo institutions will provide you jobs while NOT making obstacles so Republic of Serbia gives funds and together with Kosovo institutions will provide better life through investments.
There are many countries in the world where ethnic group makes majority in one or more states. Take for Example Moldova (majority Romanians), Cyprus (two ethnic groups – Greeks and Turkish), Singapore (Chinese majority), Switzerland (Germans, French, Italians), Bosnia&Herzegovina (Serbs as constitutional people), Two former Yemens and some others.
You may oppose Kosovo institutions one, two, five, ten or fifty years but understand that northern Kosovo IS northern Kosovo and remains as a SUCH. Even Serbia’s leaders agreed on that. Its better for you accepting the reality than continuous confrontation, which will harm you, not the rest of Kosovo. If 100,000 Albanians in southern Serbia (Presevo, Bujanovac, Medvedja) accepted the reality of being citizens of Serbia, you must do the same – accepting the reality of being citizens of Kosovo.