Day: April 8, 2013
Peace Picks April 9th- April 12th
1. Lessons Learned from Iraq and How They Apply to North Africa
Date and Time: April 9, 10:00-11:30 am
Location: US Institute of Peace
2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Amb. William B. Taylor, Jr., John Nagl, Manal Omar
Description: Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) Stuart Bowen on March 6 released SIGIR’s final report for Congress, ‘Learning From Iraq,’ which details the accomplishments of the U.S. reconstruction efforts in Iraq. The report provides an ‘instructive picture of what was the largest stabilization and reconstruction operation ever undertaken by the United States (until recently overtaken by Afghanistan).’ Additionally, the report outlines seven lessons that the U.S. should implement to improve its approach to future stabilization and reconstruction operations. The event will highlight SIGIR’s experience in Iraq and examine the major problems it discovered, such as America’s ‘ad hoc’ approach, the effectiveness of oversight, funding challenges, and the larger issue of nation-building. Experts will explore how lessons learned from Iraq can be applied to other American-led efforts, such as those associated with emerging democracies. Please join us on April 9, 2013 from 10:00am to 11:30M for what promises to be a relevant and timely discussion.
Register for this event here: http://www.usip.org/events/lessons-learned-iraq-and-how-they-apply-north-africa
2. How the United States and Europe Can Cooperate in the Middle East
Date and Time: April 9, 6:00-7:30 pm
Location: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Rome Building
1619 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C.
806
Speakers: Charles Ries
Description: Charles Ries, vice president, international and senior fellow at the RAND Corporation and a SAIS graduate, will discuss this topic.Note: A reception will immediately follow the event in Room 812, Rome Building.
Register for this event here: http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-04-09-180000-2013-04-09-193000/how-united-states-and-europe-can-cooperate-middle-east
3. Energy Developments in the Persian Gulf
Date and Time: April 10, 6:00-7:30 pm
Location: Lindner Family Commons, Room 602 1957 E Street, NW
Speakers: Bijan Khajehpour, Siamak Namazi, and Ambassador Edward Skip Gnehm (as Moderator).
Description: As Iraq reemerges as a major oil producer after years of domestic turmoil, Iran continues to develop its petroleum sector despite economic sanctions. Focusing on energy sectors in Iran and Iraq, the panelists will discuss the influence of energy developments on regional relations. They will also highlight important trends in regional oil production and consumption. Dr. Bijan Khajehpour is a managing and founding partner of Atieh International, a Vienna-based management consulting firm, and holds a Ph.D. in Business Administration from the International School of Management in Paris. Siamak Namazi is the general manager of Access Consulting Group, a Dubai-based private regional consultancy, and holds a MBA from the London Business School and a MS in Urban and Regional Planning from Rutgers University.
Register for this event here: https://docs.google.com/a/aucegypt.edu/forms/d/1rE8VLjnFI8ksIKmRARxmVyQYf_D2eQXXqjwI1f7HU5o/viewform
4. Iraq: Policy and National Security Challenges for the Future
Date and Time: April 11, 6:30-8:00 pm
Location: Mortara Center for International Affairs
Speakers: James F. Jeffrey, Kenneth Pollack, David Pollock, Mr. Ahmed Ali
Description: Ten years after the launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom, Iraq remains a geopolitically vital state in the midst of questionable challenges of political, security, and natural resource instability. Join top Iraqi experts Dr. Kenneth Pollack, Dr. David Pollock, and Mr. Ahmed Ali and the former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, James F. Jeffery, in assessing the challenges to Iraq’s future development, the challenges and opportunities Iraq continues to pose for US regional and national security interests, and exploring how Iraq fits into a broader regional picture with numerous other security challenges, from Iran to Syria.
Register for this event here: http://dc.linktank.com/event/iraq_policy_and_national_security_challenges_for_the_future#.UWLyRGBU05w
5. The Turkish American Alliance: Opportunities and Challenges
Date and Time: April 12, 9:30-11:00 am
Location: Foundation for Defense of Democracies
1726 M Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036
Suite 700
Speakers: Soner Cagaptay, Douglas J. Feith, Jonathan Schanzer, Gonul Tol
Description: How does Turkey’s Syria policy help the United States? How do Turkey’s financial ties to Iran and Hamas complicate the Turkish-American relationship? How seriously does Turkey take its counter-terror finance responsibilities? What does the recent rapprochement between Ankara and Jerusalem mean for future ties between these two US allies?
Please join FDD for a conversation with Soner Cagaptay of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Douglas Feith former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy under the Bush Administration, Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies.
Register for this event here: http://www.defenddemocracy.org/events/
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No deal, yet
There are signs Serbia has decided to reject the deal on the table for northern Kosovo and ask for continued negotiations. Deputy Prime Minister Vucic is quoted on B92.net:
“Serbia cannot accept the adding of (Albanian majority) municipalities to the four Serb municipalities (in northern Kosovo), which the Priština side said could not be recognized because of their administration, but they could be recognized when it concerned the agreement on integrated management of administrative crossings,” he noted, and added:
“Belgrade did not receive answers about the presence of security forces, nor clear answers on the issues of education, health-care and judiciary.”
According to Vučić, Belgrade is seeking “a court of appeals for Kosovska Mitrovica”.
President Nikolic is also proposing that the talks continue under the auspices of the UN, since Serbia is a member.
This amounts to a wholesale rejection of whatever the EU is proposing, which apparently includes a northern Kosovo that encompasses Albanian-majority municipalities (in addition to the 3.5 Serb-majority ones). That is presumably intended to limit the ethnic partition dimension of whatever is agreed. It would be amazing if the EU had not given an absolutely unequivocal rejection of the presence of Serbian security forces as well as any Serbian courts. Issues of education and health care are amply treated in the Ahtisaari plan. I doubt the EU has departed much from that.
It is difficult of course for either Brussels or Pristina to refuse to continue negotiations. But that is what they should do if they want to produce a satisfactory agreement. Continuing negotiations would only signal softness on the main issues: Serbian security forces and judiciary. There is no way Kosovo Prime Minister Thaci can yield on those. But the Americans and Europeans may insist, for their own sakes. Brussels and Washington are not good at poker.
I’m all in favor of a negotiated solution, which is the only option. But it can’t be one that is impossible to administer, interferes with Kosovo’s ability to implement the EU’s acquis communitaire or goes beyond what Serbia would be willing to offer to the Albanians who live in majority-Albanian communities in southern Serbia. Nor will it help the prospects for an agreement if the negotiations are moved to the UN, where the playing field is obviously uneven due to Serbian membership (not to mention the General Assembly’s vigorously nationalist Serbian president).
If Serbia follows through on today’s news reports and formally rejects what the EU is offering, Kosovo still needs to decide whether it can live with the proposal or wants to remain silent. I haven’t seen what is on offer, so it is impossible to suggest what Pristina might do. Accepting runs the risk that the Serbs may change their minds at the last minute, as they often do. Rejecting runs the risk of annoying Washington and Brussels.
My guess is that we have not heard the last of this EU effort to resolve the problems of northern Kosovo. But if in fact we are at the end of the line, Serbia should at least pay its own fare, which is no date for opening accession negotiations with the EU. Whether Kosovo can still hope for action on the visa waiver and opening of negotiations for a Stabilization and Association Agreement is not clear to me. I hope those issues can be decided on the technical merits, which seem to me increasingly in favor.
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